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#16

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Posted 17 February 2003 - 08:51 PM

Howdy all. Feb 19 to 21 is full of fib time as previously show in charts. The following time is due in the Feb 19 to 21 window.

34 days from Dec 31 low
55 days from Dec 2 high
89 days from Oct 10 low
144 days from July 24 low

Also, Bradley model shows market moving up from
Feb 20 to Feb 27 before moving down to March 13.

Should be a volitile week.
Ormsby :rolleyes:

#17 FeedFool

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Posted 18 February 2003 - 03:19 AM

Link


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#18 richmtn

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 12:07 AM

FeedFool I've tried to replicate that 78.5 week cycle using indicators. Not bad. Guess at the end of the quarter we should be looking for it to bottom. :o

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#19 richmtn

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 09:55 PM

I never have quite figured out why the sexual urges of
men & women differ so much. And I never have figured
out the whole Mars & Venus thing. And, I never have
figured out why men think with their head and women
with their heart. And, I never yet have figured out
how the sexual desire gene gets thrown into a state of
turmoil, when it hears the words "I do."

One evening last week, my wife and I were getting into
bed. Well, the passion starts to heat up, and she
eventually says "I don't feel like it, I just want you
to hold me."

I said, "WHAT??"

So she says the words that I and every husband on the
planet dreads. She explains that I must not be in
tune with her emotional needs as a Woman.

I'm thinking, "What was her first clue?" I finally
realize that nothing is going to happen that night, so
I went to sleep.

The very next day we went shopping at a big unnamed
department store...I walked around while she tried on
three very expensive outfits. She couldn't decide
which one to take, so I told her to take all three of
them. She then tells me that she wants matching shoes
worth $200 each to which I say OK. And then we go to
the Jewelry Dept. where she gets a set of diamond
earrings. Let me tell you ... she was so excited.
She must have thought that I was one wave short of a
shipwreck, but I don't think she cared. I think she
was testing me when she asked for a tennis bracelet
because she doesn't even play tennis. I threw her for
a loop when I told her that it was OK.

She was almost sexually excited from all of this when
she said, "I'm ready to go, let's go to the cash
register."

I could hardly contain myself when I blurted out, "No,
honey. I don't feel like buying all this stuff now."

You should have seen her face ... it went completely
blank. I then I said, "Really honey! I just want you
to HOLD this stuff for a while."

And just when she had this look like she was going to
kill me, I added, "You must not be in tune with my
financial needs as a Man."

I figure that I should be having sex again sometime
during the spring thaw of 2004 , or later.

#20 richmtn

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 12:57 AM

Hi Ano thanks for sharing.

***************************

Chart of the night.

I've been contemplating the darn 5-6 month cycle. It's hard to pin down. Folks are expecting it to turn up. After doing some charting and thinking and thinking the chart below is what I came up with. It uses Rate Of Change (ROC).
The blue vertical lines are obvious indicator highs for the 5-6 month cycle (lower pane). Indicator highs are not necessarily price highs for the cycle.
The red vertical lines are nice looking cycle highs for the 10-12 month.
Also shown is the 10-13 week cycle.
The black vertical lines occur where all three cycles' prices and indicators bottom
So far so good. There are some problems with the 5-6 month cycle though. I only have two highs marked for the 5-6 month, blue lines, over a period of more than one year. That works nicely for the 10-12 month but not real well for the 5-6 month.
There should be another high. It should be in or near that green box. :unsure:
What happened to it? The darn 5-6 month looks like a one year cycle.
It seems to have made a nice low in FEB 2002 and started to go up from there. Then something goes horribly wrong. Remember cycles act upon each other. There are many cycles not shown here. The 5-6 month cycle dips when it should be continuing higher. Then it hits that red line. The top of the one year cycle. It tries to turn back up but is crushed by the downtrending 10-12 month. Well it's all downhill from there. :lol:
Now look at the second half of 2002. Where is the cycle low for the 5-6 month. Looks like early Nov. 2002. But it's a higher low. Same thing as before only in reverse. Duh the 10-12 month is in it's up phase. :huh:
You are saying "So Rich why are you telling me all this?"
Well the 5-6 month has behaved like a slave of the 10-12 month recently. Perhaps the same thing will happen over the next few weeks. We have the 10-12 month and a number of other longer term cycles heading lower. Can the 5-6 month show some independence or will it be squashed again and only turn up when the 10-13 week and some longer cycles allow it?
WAG:
Down it goes into the end of the quarter.

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#21 Metamucil

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 01:46 AM

I'm noticing a lot of miner charts that look like early markdown has begun. I'm tempted to short some.


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#22 richmtn

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 09:14 AM

Attention Elliot Wavers

Something has been nagging at me while working with a chart I created recently showing the 5-6 month and 10-12 month cycles. You know just one of those vague things. Last night I was listening to Neely and he was showing his Elliot Wave charts. My eye caught on his controversial X-Wave.
Something clicked. My chart flashed through my mind. Many of you have probably noticed this already but I had not heard it discussed so it was news to me. In the area were he has his X-Wave, October 2001 through July 2002, the two cycles formed an "X". See chart below.
I don't do E-Waves and I certainly am not qualified to discuss the rules of wave counting. What I am trying to show is a cyclical representation of a chart pattern. Seems to me that for Elliot Wavers, whether they like X-Waves or not, and for other chart pattern recognition stoolies this could be a valuable tool when this pattern is encountered.

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Interview with Ike on AegeanCapital

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#23 roidrage

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 06:05 PM

I could hardly contain myself when I blurted out, "No,
honey. I don't feel like buying all this stuff now."

You should have seen her face ... it went completely
blank. I then I said, "Really honey!  I just want you
to HOLD this stuff for a while."

And just when she had this look like she was going to
kill me, I added, "You must not be in tune with my
financial needs as a Man."

ROTFL!!!!!

Your pain is our gain! Thanks for your sacrifice!!!

rr

#24 Metamucil

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 10:09 PM

Good news about OZ......

Shport (9) for spx is down at 806.
Shport (9) for ndx is from here to ~940.

Spx looks weaker (note macd divergence on the daily), which is where I have most of my shorts.




"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#25 richmtn

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 12:17 AM

Meta I'm still getting some mixed signals. On the one hand larger cycles are looking great. On the other many of the shorter ones could be trouble if we don't keep moving down. If we can keep moving lower we could get a beautiful cascading effect. We have bullish flags on almost all shorter time frames. We need the larger waves to squash shorter ones trying to turn up.
This is a five day. It could turn up late Friday or early Monday. I'm not a pattern expert but that is a bull flag isn't it? Don't count the 17 which they have on the chart.

Slink as soon as I post a couple of things I'll do my best on the Gann. I warn you even though I like that chart I am no Gann expert.

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#26 richmtn

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 12:25 AM

This is a 13 day. It's in an up phase with a bull flag. :shocked
I do not like that.

EasyAl if I can stop charting long enough I'm gonna find something for you. :D

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#27 richmtn

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 12:28 AM

This is the 6-7 week. It would be very nice if this aborts it's up phase. Like NOW.

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#28 richmtn

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 12:31 AM

This is the 10-13 week. It's got a ways to go in it's down phase unless something goes horribly wrong. This is Doc's main trading cycle. Larger cycles rule. Or so I've heard.

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#29 richmtn

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 12:55 AM

My understanding of this chart.
Gann believed that prices run up and down the fan lines. There is a math formula that describes the angles. The middle line is at 45 degrees. I think lines can operate as support and resistance as well. I placed the bases of the fan at important turn dates. To my eye prices have moved along the lines to a significant extent. Also the red lines radiating from the August high have acted as resistance to several rallys.
I have been watching to see what the prices do as they rise into that black oval. It doesn't look like it will get there. That would be very bearish in my opinion. The top red line capped other rallys. The red line in the oval is well below that. I think we move below the October low. Perhaps after a few more days we will have a better idea.
Any particular questions? :)

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#30 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 02:54 PM

PileDriver,Feb 21 2003, 09:35 PM They are going to clear up very soon and its not going to be a pretty picture for the bulls who are very complacent while us bears are nervous as all hell.  That's a good sign for us.  :grin:

PrtzlLogic,Feb 22 2003, 12:59 AM Agreed. We got the last little "gasp up" I was expecting. It looks to me like the move off the lows is done or nearly so. I'm expecting the downtrend to resume sometime next week.


We be going down. I'm still with you on this. Shorter cycles are in up phases. Once they roll over we go for da big flush. As far as 180 degree out of phase cycles (X-Wave?) we are in one and on the backside of it. Chart.
My cycle counts:
10-12 month - down
9 month - down
6 month - bottoming followed by likely swup
10-13 week down

X-Wave created by intersection of 10-13 week (red) and 10-12 month (black) cycles. Larger waves rule. Once the 10-12 month jogs down again FLUSH.
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