Sign In
Register
Help
Sometimes you get too engrossed in mini-waves... and in doing so I violated some of my own original principles when I became the Simple Guy...
So, Simple Guy stood back from his monitor this morning, and took a view of the NDX chart again... and suddenly... my vision became clear once again.
Work with me people--
Jan 13-14 top of minor wave 2 at 1104 NDX, wave 3 starts.
1104 to 1000 is wave 1 of 3
1000 to 1039 is wave 2 of 3 (38% retrace)
1039 to 938.xx (ended this week) wave (1) of 3
938.xx to 1000 (a 61.8% retrace) is wave (2) of 3
1000 to a coming 832 (161.8% of wave 1) is (3) of 3
That 832 is 20.67 on the QQQ... which is a target I had many weeks ago... with all the ST hysteria, I lost focus.
SG believes we should see 1000 ish sometime soon on NDX, which is about 24.84... but 25.02 is really possible also (give me a few points leeway here)... its the SG approach
So... in summary... this retrace is normal... caught some peeps off guard.... but my overall vision is still fine... I just lost it temporarily in the short term gyrations.
I have to remember, Im supposed to be the SIMPLE GUY
Sg Finally Figures It Out
MY HEAD IS CLEAR, SO IS MY COUNT
Rate Topic:
#1
simple guy 
- Elliott Professor Emeritus of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 2,226
- Joined: 27-August 02
Posted 15 February 2003 - 11:16 AM
MultiQuote
#2
jraabe
- Stock Proctology Intern
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 48
- Joined: 30-December 01
Posted 15 February 2003 - 12:36 PM
Looks to me (an even simpler guy) like you're expecting a whipsaw (non-tradeable) correction. We had a similar one (in the NDX) in the second week of Sept. 2002. Falling market with a short corrective bounce. The MACD and RSI indicators gave away kisses but no decisive crossovers. That is where these indicators are now.
I plan to stay short for the next 1-2 days until the indicators give a clearer picture. There are too many other things telling me this there is a strong undertow towards the downside (ie: the VNX wedge - http://www.zealllc.com/2003/vxn.htm)
I plan to stay short for the next 1-2 days until the indicators give a clearer picture. There are too many other things telling me this there is a strong undertow towards the downside (ie: the VNX wedge - http://www.zealllc.com/2003/vxn.htm)
#3
Hoodwinked
- Bachelor of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 502
- Joined: 01-August 02
Posted 15 February 2003 - 01:06 PM
SG if you have seen my posts on how I trade maybe you could give a liitle guidence on structure.
Truth of the matter is the ewaves confuse the stool out me....
This week observing your posts, you seemed to be trying to work out the final price to cover. The market movements seemed to be shifting your focus onto smaller patterns??? in order to work out the larger?
My hold is usually 3 to 6 weeks using Doc along with my astros.....I know you dont like the astros, and that is not what I am asking.
I usually just ride out all flunctuations within my time frame, or until the trend has firmly identified itself. It has proved successful for me. 300% in 2002 including loss percentages. There were two.
On the ewaves if you throw out all the minutes? and abc? {I dont have a clue} is there a pattern that is {usually} consistant with a larger time frame? Lets say 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 week time frame. {Price Time?} With your exprience, is the wave just pure price retrace with no consideration of time needed, within larger retacement? Once it is met it is met? Extensions must fit within percentage? If extension is blown through the count is negated?
A couple of threads back you hinted that you have an even larger wave structure worked out moving forward in 2003. Is the structure only considerd with price?
Thanks for your consideration.
Your work is outstanding. What is easy for one is not always easy for others. You along with Doc have a true gift with your chosen methods.
Edit ...opps forgot to ask.
With the percentage retrace.....is the percentage estimated with sentiment of the collective?
With pure simple guy waves....could the minutes or abc be eliminated or are they a leading indicator?
Truth of the matter is the ewaves confuse the stool out me....
This week observing your posts, you seemed to be trying to work out the final price to cover. The market movements seemed to be shifting your focus onto smaller patterns??? in order to work out the larger?
My hold is usually 3 to 6 weeks using Doc along with my astros.....I know you dont like the astros, and that is not what I am asking.
I usually just ride out all flunctuations within my time frame, or until the trend has firmly identified itself. It has proved successful for me. 300% in 2002 including loss percentages. There were two.
On the ewaves if you throw out all the minutes? and abc? {I dont have a clue} is there a pattern that is {usually} consistant with a larger time frame? Lets say 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 week time frame. {Price Time?} With your exprience, is the wave just pure price retrace with no consideration of time needed, within larger retacement? Once it is met it is met? Extensions must fit within percentage? If extension is blown through the count is negated?
A couple of threads back you hinted that you have an even larger wave structure worked out moving forward in 2003. Is the structure only considerd with price?
Thanks for your consideration.
Your work is outstanding. What is easy for one is not always easy for others. You along with Doc have a true gift with your chosen methods.
Edit ...opps forgot to ask.
With the percentage retrace.....is the percentage estimated with sentiment of the collective?
With pure simple guy waves....could the minutes or abc be eliminated or are they a leading indicator?
#4
GregFokker
- Dean of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Moderators
- Posts: 14,974
- Joined: 02-February 02
Posted 15 February 2003 - 07:22 PM
Will Simple Guy be leaving his positions open, or closing them out at the 10:45 print Tues? I would assume he's staying short given the above.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny
Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty
#6
sweefraapp
- Associate Professor of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 4,787
- Joined: 20-February 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 01:40 PM
SG's take (unless I charted it wrong):
Attached image(s)
#7
TroyB
- Stock Proctology Intern
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 10
- Joined: 13-February 03
Posted 16 February 2003 - 04:05 PM
Hi sweefraapp,
I think the simplicity of that above chart shows exactly where we are headed. Look at the peaks of the Stoch, RSI and Bollinger % indicators, and the proceding move of the index.
This "mini-move" we are experiencing will be completely retraced by the end of the week (and some....).
TroyB.
I think the simplicity of that above chart shows exactly where we are headed. Look at the peaks of the Stoch, RSI and Bollinger % indicators, and the proceding move of the index.
This "mini-move" we are experiencing will be completely retraced by the end of the week (and some....).
TroyB.
#8
simple guy
- Elliott Professor Emeritus of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 2,226
- Joined: 27-August 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 04:25 PM
SG responds
First of all, I found whilst cleaning my home office a piece of paper with the $23.31 amount scratched down as a mini wave 3 ending... I dont know when I traced it out... turned out it was right. I then had a 24.02 as the next move, but I was probalby assuming a smaller retrace.... oh well.... I got lost in the mini waves for sure.... yikes....
1. Im not covering, Im keeping my shorts on at 200% taken from about 25.70 on the RYVNX. YTD Im up just over 20% on my RYVNX trading... and I've only made 2 or 3 trades I think YTD.
2. Regarding ABC and all that jazz... sometimes I do short term trade the indices on a 1-3 day scale... I did more of that at the end of 2002 with success since we were in a moderate up cycle, but with downsides in between.
Now I believe the waves are firmly pointing down, and other than the ocassional hysterical retraces... its best to HOLD my short position and or add to it if I have the powder (As I did last week at 24.11 on RYVNX).
3. SG has long had a 20.67 ish target, for well over a month now... and so it is.... thats where I would probably cover short term.
4. In thinking over the weekend... I know this will sound SIMPLE... but I thought... bullish wedges should signal the end of an elliott wave pattern and a coming corrective wave 2 or wave 4. Bearish wedges should also signal a coming end to a corrective 2 or 4, and a coming wave 1, 3, or 5.
With that in mind, I should have stepped back from my monitor and noted the bullish wedge on the NAS, and even the QQQ on a ST basis... that would have clued me in that a minuette wave 3 was in fact ending at 23.30.... even though I had it not quite low enough FIBONACCI wise.
I hope that makes some sense...
So in fine tuning... Im going to pay a bit more attention to bullish and bearish wedges, along with my fibo retrace calculations to help fine tune where the retrace might be finally ending, and the next wave coming.
That said... the last hour or so on Friday was planting a firm BEARISH WEDGE formation on the QQQ.... however, at the tail end of trading, it broke up a bit to the upside to get outside of a firm bearish wedge. This is what gives me some confidence that yet another will appear and we could see 24.65 and likely 25.02 before she tops out and heads back down.
Its likely to be a normal 3rd wave or 161% of the wave 1 of 1040 to 938...., this after the near term top hits early in the week....... prepare ye for a dramatic waterfall decline to come
In either case, 832 on the NDX seems to be a fair target in the intermediate time frame...
First of all, I found whilst cleaning my home office a piece of paper with the $23.31 amount scratched down as a mini wave 3 ending... I dont know when I traced it out... turned out it was right. I then had a 24.02 as the next move, but I was probalby assuming a smaller retrace.... oh well.... I got lost in the mini waves for sure.... yikes....
1. Im not covering, Im keeping my shorts on at 200% taken from about 25.70 on the RYVNX. YTD Im up just over 20% on my RYVNX trading... and I've only made 2 or 3 trades I think YTD.
2. Regarding ABC and all that jazz... sometimes I do short term trade the indices on a 1-3 day scale... I did more of that at the end of 2002 with success since we were in a moderate up cycle, but with downsides in between.
Now I believe the waves are firmly pointing down, and other than the ocassional hysterical retraces... its best to HOLD my short position and or add to it if I have the powder (As I did last week at 24.11 on RYVNX).
3. SG has long had a 20.67 ish target, for well over a month now... and so it is.... thats where I would probably cover short term.
4. In thinking over the weekend... I know this will sound SIMPLE... but I thought... bullish wedges should signal the end of an elliott wave pattern and a coming corrective wave 2 or wave 4. Bearish wedges should also signal a coming end to a corrective 2 or 4, and a coming wave 1, 3, or 5.
With that in mind, I should have stepped back from my monitor and noted the bullish wedge on the NAS, and even the QQQ on a ST basis... that would have clued me in that a minuette wave 3 was in fact ending at 23.30.... even though I had it not quite low enough FIBONACCI wise.
I hope that makes some sense...
So in fine tuning... Im going to pay a bit more attention to bullish and bearish wedges, along with my fibo retrace calculations to help fine tune where the retrace might be finally ending, and the next wave coming.
That said... the last hour or so on Friday was planting a firm BEARISH WEDGE formation on the QQQ.... however, at the tail end of trading, it broke up a bit to the upside to get outside of a firm bearish wedge. This is what gives me some confidence that yet another will appear and we could see 24.65 and likely 25.02 before she tops out and heads back down.
Its likely to be a normal 3rd wave or 161% of the wave 1 of 1040 to 938...., this after the near term top hits early in the week....... prepare ye for a dramatic waterfall decline to come
In either case, 832 on the NDX seems to be a fair target in the intermediate time frame...
#9
bubbadropping
- Minister of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1,028
- Joined: 04-July 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 05:12 PM
SG, thanks. I doubt I will ever understand the Wave thing but its nice to read your takes. My forensic time window has OE racketeering fininshing upspikes on Wednesday. At that time I will be repositioning short. Happens nearly every month and is just too much of a trend to ignore. best,buddha
#10
- Group: Guests
Posted 16 February 2003 - 05:41 PM
I am, as always, very grateful for what you are doing here at Capitalstool. I did, as I mentioned to you before, do my initial 200% entry (via XLNX, my proxy stock for the Naz on this expedition) on Jan. 10 as per your advice and it has worked out beautifully. I have also, as you may or may not know, increased my shares 50% via buying power in the interim. I started this past week with a 62% profit on equity for this expedition. It's down to 30% profit but, it is still 30% profit.
I started zoning out a bit on your calls during the week because you were changing it a lot but, I think I understand why. The current noise, the war, terrorism etc. is of the most extreme kind. It has got to be a hard enviornment to count waves in. If it were not for this extreme kind of noise, I would have honored my stop and would have been out by close on Wednesday. I have decided to ride it out as I have plenty of room to do it with. I set my trading style so that I can have plenty of room if needed.
The thing is the trend, as you say, is down and the noise is such that the market could turn on a dime and take a harsh down move. I don't want to have to chase that.
Serious traders realize this move was not going to be a straight down to March kind of move. They knew the impending war and terrorist threats, whether real or threatened, were going to throw big rocks in the pond, even those serious traders like myself who are not intimately versed in TA and E-wave, Astros, etc. realized this and set their plans accordingly.
These are the people who appreciate your imput and your style and know this is a difficult environment to call a short term move in concisely.
I started zoning out a bit on your calls during the week because you were changing it a lot but, I think I understand why. The current noise, the war, terrorism etc. is of the most extreme kind. It has got to be a hard enviornment to count waves in. If it were not for this extreme kind of noise, I would have honored my stop and would have been out by close on Wednesday. I have decided to ride it out as I have plenty of room to do it with. I set my trading style so that I can have plenty of room if needed.
The thing is the trend, as you say, is down and the noise is such that the market could turn on a dime and take a harsh down move. I don't want to have to chase that.
Serious traders realize this move was not going to be a straight down to March kind of move. They knew the impending war and terrorist threats, whether real or threatened, were going to throw big rocks in the pond, even those serious traders like myself who are not intimately versed in TA and E-wave, Astros, etc. realized this and set their plans accordingly.
These are the people who appreciate your imput and your style and know this is a difficult environment to call a short term move in concisely.
#11
simple guy
- Elliott Professor Emeritus of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 2,226
- Joined: 27-August 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 05:45 PM
sg also notes
commercial hedgers with their highest net short position on qqq in past 3 full years
meantime...small speculators w highest net long position in 3 years
guess whose side Im on?
commercial hedgers with their highest net short position on qqq in past 3 full years
meantime...small speculators w highest net long position in 3 years
guess whose side Im on?
#12
strikerm3
- Master of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 1,533
- Joined: 05-January 03
Posted 16 February 2003 - 06:48 PM
interesting gold seems to have the same scenario. or did at least. Its going to be an interesting week. Ill have to make some excuses for work. 
sure it doesnt matter here but I have almost breached the 100k mark with the 3rd bullet friday at close. I should have waited till next week but oh well. Now I believe Ill have to sit thru the pain of a "no attack" relief rally. Wait thats suppose to be a "pre war" rally. I get confused. Ill probably wake up at 5am on tuesday with the visions of the broken downtrend. Futures probably up.
at least it wont be a monday. My only regret is adding friday and not waiting until mid next week. Im still up some. just a few percent probably, gone by close wednesday for sure but then I will just wish I could enter short again.. good luck
sure it doesnt matter here but I have almost breached the 100k mark with the 3rd bullet friday at close. I should have waited till next week but oh well. Now I believe Ill have to sit thru the pain of a "no attack" relief rally. Wait thats suppose to be a "pre war" rally. I get confused. Ill probably wake up at 5am on tuesday with the visions of the broken downtrend. Futures probably up. at least it wont be a monday. My only regret is adding friday and not waiting until mid next week. Im still up some. just a few percent probably, gone by close wednesday for sure but then I will just wish I could enter short again.. good luck
#13
BigWave
- Master of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1,391
- Joined: 21-January 03
Posted 16 February 2003 - 09:37 PM
SG,
Thanks again For your work. I have little experience with TA, waves, fib, and such. Most of my trades have been short and hold from 2001 and 2002. Very profitable to now. I began following the stool for m2m, but have since discovered the valuable experience and knowledge present here. Yours included. The education I am receiving here is helping to prepare me for the next step in my trading evolution. Thanks again.
BW
Thanks again For your work. I have little experience with TA, waves, fib, and such. Most of my trades have been short and hold from 2001 and 2002. Very profitable to now. I began following the stool for m2m, but have since discovered the valuable experience and knowledge present here. Yours included. The education I am receiving here is helping to prepare me for the next step in my trading evolution. Thanks again.
BW
#14
PileDriver
- Professor of Stock Proctology
-
- Group: Banned
- Posts: 6,448
- Joined: 25-August 02
Posted 16 February 2003 - 11:51 PM
The higher we go (and stay under SPX860ish) the bigger the ensuing "bitch slap"
Michael Burke
My take on the bombs dropping market reaction has always been this. We fall hard, perhaps a very brief intraday pop up first but then a sudden deep reversal down into the primary trend direction.
Very few in the mainstream are considering this outcome. Everyone is fixated on a rally. I guess its a "hope" thing
Michael Burke
My take on the bombs dropping market reaction has always been this. We fall hard, perhaps a very brief intraday pop up first but then a sudden deep reversal down into the primary trend direction.
Very few in the mainstream are considering this outcome. Everyone is fixated on a rally. I guess its a "hope" thing
