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Valentine's Day Ultimatum


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#46 simple guy

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:38 PM

Sox Bear

SG used to think the same way as you. And you are right about alternate counts... tons of them.

Which is why I keep it simple...

Also, Elliott Waves definitely can predict where the markets are heading... what they dont predict is the timing... thats Doc's gigue

Open your mind

I've been trading my version of the E waves quite successfully... the only things that change are the Fibo retraces...sometimes they retrace higher than I expect.

Also, 3rd of a 3rd waves dont happen in 1 week... they take several months actually.... it started on Dec 2... its still unfolding 2 1/2 months later...

And yes, you will see a 6% down day intra-day somewhere along the line... IMO....

To wit

1341 on the NAS... watch and see...

followed by 1002 on the NAS in a cascading downleg thereafter...

Im assuming that using Elliott Waves... Im not guaranteeing it... but you be the judge as it unfolds...

#47 slinger

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:40 PM

VXN moves opposite the Nasdaq 100. Something's got to give this next week based on the weekly chart. My only concern is the MACD is crossing up at resistance. I still have a feeling that the bears will have a great week next week. Keep ya heads up...

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#48 rog

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:43 PM

mark : disagree wholeheartily about a gap up if nothing happens over the weekend. THis week offered plenty for all, Thursday presented a nice opportunity to cover shorts, at least partial postions, but in that same vien today provide excellent opportunities to let the shorts back out. ANyway, if nothing happens over the weekend I would give much higher odds to a gap down than a gap up. Yd and todays rally,imo, was all about jumpung on the bandwagon for the war rally. Like you mention so often, after three years of bloodletting the only fear is fear of being out of the mkt. THe fear of not being 200% long for that next bull mkt. Check mutual fund cash levels now vs then ( 1991 vs today) ; or sentiment, and of course do not mention the final arbiter of sentiment: valuations. Now is much different than then.

Soup when I worked at GS, I had no idea what my margin limit was. Regardless of how long or short my book, the only measure the firm cared about was my P&L. Last November I asked a friend who is a QQQ specialist how much margin exposure he could carry overnight. His response: "I have no idea, two weeks ago I took home $30m." The big banks create their own liquidity and are trading aggresively to keep margins up. Food for thought.

#49 Nanobody

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:47 PM

10 hours of stupidity does not make a bull market.It just makes a waste of funds lousy 4-5% cash reserves.

Agree, MrH. However, a bullish engulfing (daily) candle that takes out 2 days' previous highs and pierces an important support/resistance level, and turning the stochastics up above the 20-band, coming after 21 days (fib number) of downwards movement - had better be respected!

I'm with Mark... perma-bears got slaughtered by not believing last year's rallies. And it seems that some of our most-loved traders are now out of the game (Forus, Merciless, FxFox).

The average S&P bear market rally is over 20%
Source: Bear-market Rally Autopsy 2

Please, make sure your account can withstand a 20% BOOM! rally from these levels, before you blindly follow a "can't go any higher" attitude. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but if we don't consider it as a possiblity, then we are nothing more than blinkered fools, imo.

Regards, Nano.

#50 wrecked him

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:52 PM

as for ebay and amgn I'll be happy to sell you all you want ....just dont count on me buying it back anytime before OCT.


Check out the falling volume on the entire rise, the falling ADX on the wedge and finally the perfect elliot 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal C wave

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#51 crooked_analyst

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 08:59 PM

10 Hours of "rally"? ...wasn't it more like 4 hours? When you take out the final 2 hours of yesterday and today, there ain't much to crow about. Ostensibly, yesterday was based on Saddam's son bailing and "Bargain Hunting". Today was nothing more than a well engineered squeeze.

Yesterday's Down Volume on the NYSE was 977,000,000 and the up volume was 530,000,000+/- and we finish down 8 points...get real. $2.9 billion more left the funds this week....who the hell is buying. Probably us that are short when we see the wham bam thank you jam.....

While I am a believer in TA, EW, FIB, et al, I also believe that "Da Boyz" know how to push a little farther than the charts say. I haven't a clue whether its up or down from here, but I believe that, ultimately, it's down. That bein said, I have some Feb out of the money DOW calls (condoms) for protection. I am loaded to the gills with puts.

Good luck to all....enjoy tonite with your mate.

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:12 PM

Oh.. .yeah... one other comment

1470 to 1260 wave 1
1260 to 1341 wave 2

1340 to 1002... 161.8% of wave 1.... and end of wave 3 (with 4 and 5 to come)

Makes alot of sense now doesnt it kids? 1002 is the October lows area....

It would also have my QQQ target in the low 20.xx range come into play...

Its crystal clear to me, dont lose your head......

I've held my short postion thru thick and thin. The grind down and the artificial ramp jobs to gloss over the underlying rot. On the ramp, I increase my shorts and I cover a little on the way down the hill. From time to time, like today, the unexpected yet expected happens and just about everyone starts second guessing. Yesterday, everyone is wildly bearish and today half of us are looking to play the ramp up. Today was an aberration. I don't see it as the beginning of anything except OE week and the big traders running shorts out of their positions. If you are good enough to jump in and out every day or two and make money, more power to you. If I tried to do that, I'd be broke by now.

#53 GTNWORSE

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:16 PM

Hey Guys,
Nanobody said a mouth full. If we get the MACD crossover on Tuesday I will go long. Nothing more complicated to say other than, I don't know shit.
Hope you all have a nice weekend.

#54 slinger

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:19 PM

Forget the big squeeze, and instead give your honey a big squeeze. This market is on a leash. Yelp!

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#55 MrHanky

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:23 PM

10 Hours of "rally"? ...wasn't it more like 4 hours? When you take out the final 2 hours of yesterday and today, there ain't much to crow about. Ostensibly, yesterday was based on Saddam's son bailing and "Bargain Hunting". Today was nothing more than a well engineered squeeze.

Yesterday's Down Volume on the NYSE was 977,000,000 and the up volume was 530,000,000+/- and we finish down 8 points...get real. $2.9 billion more left the funds this week....who the hell is buying. Probably us that are short when we see the wham bam thank you jam.....

While I am a believer in TA, EW, FIB, et al, I also believe that "Da Boyz" know how to push a little farther than the charts say. I haven't a clue whether its up or down from here, but I believe that, ultimately, it's down. That bein said, I have some Feb out of the money DOW calls (condoms) for protection. I am loaded to the gills with puts.

Good luck to all....enjoy tonite with your mate.

actually 1/2 of the gains these past 2 days were in the last 2 hours today.

Nothing


#56 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:31 PM

I started leaning towards this count on Monday, and posted this over on LOB early Tuesday morning. It may be worth a more serious consideration after today's action: Incredibly Bearish Count.

As wndy said today, "The massive "3rd of 3rd" wave down will happen, I'm not so sure that its happening now." That was my feeling when I drew this chart. The action was feeling too, well... boring for us to have already been in a 3 of 3. By this chart, we're in e now, with the third wave on deck.
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

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And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#57 brian4

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:39 PM

For a solid freakin week-I have been preaching be wary,trade Safe, book profits etc-so if you got clocked today think about whose fault it was-and learn from it. I have been 75% in cash for two days and I booked some big coin-I've been around a lot of years and I use ladders and trailing stops that keep me out of harms ways. Now there is a lot of undue panic on the board-as Simple Guy say's keep your head this manic spike today did squat and if you can read a chart you can see it. If and I say IF the dow can get over 8267 which I doubt and the SPX over 855 which I doubt then it goes on for a while. Personally from what I see (nice chart Wrecked Him) next week at some point will be a disaster-Simple Guy seems to have the same take as does Soup and others. Technically this is a gift the markets ran to resistance on the Dow and SPX and relieved an Dover Sole condition and the weak bears covered and panicked and when they covered who do you think was on the other side of the trade-huh-huh-it sure as hell wasn't Joe Sixpack-he's road kill. By the way those knocking options don't know what they are talking about-they are NOT for everyone but for those that know what they are doing they are a money machine. If you use them without experience or knowledge you will get whacked just you'll get burned touching a hot stove. We are closed Monday so this was the op ex jam today-with the uncertainty of the weekend-war, terror etc Da Boyz chose today. Please use STOPS and you won't give back PROFITS it's a very simple concept. Now i AM RECONSTRUCTING MY LADDER bottom rungs are April 800 puts and the top so far 850 the rest will be filled in over time next week. The move has not finished-the big move is dead ahead don't get spooked by what happened today no significant levels were breached or even approached.pls don't go long here yet unless you have a death wish. As the Chinese say we live in interesting times-Trade Safe and keep your freakin profits!

#58 buttugly

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:39 PM

Covered short positions on GILD, DE, CAT & PG.
So with my luck these stocks will
drop from here.

Although I note that Vesselin covered his positions
on DIA and IVV.

Hoping for the VXN Wedge - but
not counting on it.

I don't subscribe to the Arch Crawford disaster scenario.

Putting my tail firmly between my legs - primarily based
on the $CPC 21 day MA.

And I am thinking Adam Hamilton is giving a lot of attention
to Nasdaq - might be yesterday's game. Might
be better shorts in the broader market?!

#59 wrecked him

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:40 PM

Again a 5 wave move triangle with a breakout and now a compression continuation type elliot wave triangle.

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#60 wndysrf

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Posted 14 February 2003 - 09:43 PM

GTNWORSE:

You are correct. The MACD crossover is the last line.

If it crosses, I'm going long also.

If the rest of the guys here want to take the pain, I'll be glad to hear them scream.

If we head lower on Tuesday, I'll hold what I have. But right now, the odds seem slim for an immediate selloff.

Did you see MSFT the last 2 minutes? It virtually exploded .50 points on gigantic volume.
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