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Diagnosis Terminal

Elliott Wave Market Top Stock Bear

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#16 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 09:02 PM

Here is an example I am paying very close attention to now that is is apparent that all this recent volatility in the market has formed an expanded triangle in a larger expanded triangle (megaphone) pattern! 

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  • SPX3.4.14megaS.jpg


#17 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:30 AM

EURO Top 100

Current simple A-B-C zig zag up to major resistance (lower chart)

Bush Rally was a complex double zig zag correction quickly and fully retraced (upper chart) X-wave  circled.  This is more typical usually the x-waves are very small.

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  • EUR-X3.5.14.jpg
  • EUR-X3.4.14.jpg


#18 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:47 AM

HGX is example of corrective wave going beyond Wave 5 high.

This Wave B (or 2) has a triangle B-wave, very common.  This can't be a new impulsion up with a triangle here.

I will post the gold chart next that shows this same thing happened at its top.

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  • HGX-X3.5.14.jpg


#19 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:49 AM

GOLD

At TOP Ugly triangle and B didn't quite take out high but close

Currently Sure hope it makes it through that trendline and blue resistance area here which would mean the second bottom was end of Wave C and this is going to be a larger corrective wave up.

If it fails and enters another swing down we are likely going to finish up a triangle that becomes wave 4 of C and that means a final wave 5 of C down even further.

 

SO very critical juncture here for gold in EW analysis

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  • GOLD3.5.14.jpg


#20 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 10:22 AM

NICK ME  Same situation, next wave down should be a doosy.

Nice looking B-wave triangle here.

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#21 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 10:41 AM

Boss Hog Oil

 

Just popped above its prior major high in '08 but now back down in what sure looks like

another Terminal Impulse ( with common Wave 1 extension),  watching this very closely for a break down out of that lower trendline.  Sure hoping that last spike up was throw-over.

If it breaks upwards again and consolidates constructively I would expect to also see crude thrusting higher and we are off to the commodity races again.

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#22 The End

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:46 AM

Good work on this thread Mr. Hanky. :)


NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#23 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 03:19 PM

Decided to look at automakers, all are leading the way breaking down.

Honda really caught my eye because its pattern is ahead of many others I have posted (HGX housing index for instance)  however most are up at the top of wave B and why the indexes are still up there.

I have traded with Ameritrade for a long time but just opened an account at Tradestation. They have a superior platform which I am going to need  trading this on the way down,  its gonna be very quick.

This would be great short but can't do it with most ADR's.

Just beautiful clear wave structure sorry I didn't spot this earlier.

Final Wave 5 up textbook Terminal.

and Wave B up A-B-C with a perfect 5 wave slightly ascending triangle as wave b of B.

Wave c of larger degree B pops to take out the major high of Wave 5 for perfect bull trap

 

and THEN "Look OUt BeLow"

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  • HMC3.7.14.jpg


#24 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 03:34 PM

Close up of Hondas first two impulse waves down.
First is 5 wave.

Second is a 9 wave.

IMPULSE = 5,9,13.

CORRECTIVE = 3,7,11.

Both correctives are 3 waves, first a small zig zag,  this one is a FLAT in wave C

Usually A = C and it is not even to 1:1 but I strongly expect this will extend to get back to the area of that last impulses corrective wave (wave 8) highlighted.  That would be the place to go short upon candle reversal but again can't short this.

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  • HMC3.7.14hourly.jpg


#25 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 04:54 PM

Russell 2000   Totally bizarre wave structure with no clear impulsive structure, just the fact that it channels AND each consolidation/correction overlaps the previous one all the way up indicates this is just a huge weak sickly impulse C-wave.

Only real recongnizable feature that has some clearer wave formation is this broadening top formation that is also seen in other indices.

D- wave  spiking  up with gap (exhaustion) now on hourly, looks like it may do another (See my biotech BTK chart it just did a spike and reverse) Biotech Top calling confidence level now elevated from 33% to 66% just need first five wave down for 100% !!

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#26 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 03:47 AM

GM  -  Watching possible H & S formation after breaking out of its uptrend channel. Under 200 DMA 50 close by now to cross.

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  • GM3.11.14.jpg


#27 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 03:49 AM

Ford - major trend has reversed with FR/FF, below 200 and close 50 DMA with "deathcross" now watching support at 14.50 for possible shorting op. 

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#28 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 03:17 AM

GM suffering a lot a bad PR this week so should make a bounce to fool the late shorters.

It took out the neckline here (see daily chart posted above) but 5 waves appear in so looking for it to go back up at least to wave 4 consolidation area ( above the neckline too to fool those that got in short below) then have to watch it may go up a bit further into impulsion area and Ill put a FIBO grid on it if that looks to be the case, anyway good shorting set up in a coming days but not here unless the whole market falls apart but I don't think we are quite there yet.

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#29 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 08:56 AM

Still eyes glued on 1840 SP, decisive break of this level will open door to a sustained decline and good shorting opportunity.

The COMP has already violated important resistance and safe to claim I called the top in the biotechs which now look to be setting up a good pull-back to short.   Still early but more indices appear to be "rolling over" and many  important bellweather stocks showing IT reversals.  I have been on road a lot with "family issues" but will try to post more in next few days while still home.

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  • SPX3.24.14.jpg


#30 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 09:15 AM

Pharma bellweather MRK broke down out of its termination wedge (see prior post)  as anticipated signaling a start of broader break down in pharma along with biotechs, related indices also showing early signs of a top there.

Housing and real estate further along in their topping processes.

Retail is still hanging tough.

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