Big Picture View of DOW I Large Expanding Triangle about to enter final secular bear market Wave E down.
72 replies to this topic
Posted 17 February 2014 - 11:45 AM
Big Picture View Dow II Expanded Flat
I am favoring this count due to the distinct 5 wave structure of 2007-2009
This still results in same outcome here, another bear market starting very soon!
This large degree C wave down and final secular bear market decline should retrace minimally .50 but most likely .62-1.0 and have another distinct 5 wave structure. If its very messy we have the Expanding Triangle Wave E down scenario.
Posted 17 February 2014 - 07:28 PM
SP 500 Quarterly Chart Comparing Two Secular Bear Markets 1966 - 1982 2000-NOW
So without any Elliott Wave Counts to cloud the mind and just looking at trend-range axis with two standard basic and essential technical indicators I use on every chart, a MA moving average and a standard 20 period Bollinger Band (BB).
The first bear market completed with a clear 5-wave Expanding Triangle, then notice the first wave up seemed to get stuck and lingered a long time hugging the 5 yr MA (BB center line) Also the 10 yr MA in green basically was flat lined and close by. Mostly notice the distinct contraction of the BB. This long term price consolidation is essential to power the next large scale move (up or down).
Price action remained mostly top of the center line indicating an upside bias or bull hug and as we know the big bull market was soon off and running!
Now look at this current bear market. Looks a heck of lot different, doesn't it? Where is the consolidation to power the next big move? None to be found. Remember this is a law of price dynamics that has always been present and always been true.
In my humble opinion this market needs yet to "cool off" in order to build momentum for the next large advance (or decline) and I doubt it will happen way up here.
Posted 17 February 2014 - 07:57 PM
Another look at what a strange bear market this has been:
Last meaningful volatility contraction was way back in 1995 just before the huge and final leg of the
last roaring bull market. In lower panel is ATR a measure of volatility and HI-5 momentum oscillator of my own making. Again look at where ATR was in 1995 and where it is now, we are not even below
the center line. With HI-5 look how upward momentum has vastly dominated this whole secular bear market.
Is this a new era of bear market behavior and price dynamics in a large time frame no longer apply?
I doubt it.
Posted 18 February 2014 - 03:19 AM
SP 500 Current Count out of the wave 4 wedge and maybe into another (expanding) to finish things off.
Overall price is spending more time going sideways than up and volatility is now increasing typical of topping
behavior. Wave 5 triangle is failed thrust and almost appears complete!
Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:38 PM
Well stopped out of everything today (BIS, UUP, and DNO) but at least the gold trade is well in the black. We have made the first target now above the 200 DMA but major resistance area lies just above 1340-1350 on spot gold. I trade GLD, here is the chart, hopefully it just consolidates and continues upward but must watch for a reversal but this impulse is a beauty and I think its gonna carry us up further. The inverse head and shoulders projects quite a bit higher so that gives reason for optimism.
Posted 18 February 2014 - 08:39 PM
Goldman Sucks GS
Look at this weeny weak rebound after the steep and strongly impulsive Jan sell off. A lot of support gave way and now it is just sitting here like humpty dumpty on the 200 DMA! I am looking at a lot of financials and it sure looks like they just went out the door from the big party!
Looking at the longer term chart of GS this C-Wave compared to most others (energy has been very weak too and retail is catching flu rapidly) is not impressive. It topped right on the 62.8 retracement of the 2008 panic wave down. This has just got such a classic FLAT corrective structure, obvious strong A impulse and then real choppy B wave all the way down and now a weak C- wave up which is also .62 X Wave A meaning move down could be fast and furious.
Yes I am looking to try another little short here but with an inverse ETF so I posted KBE, this has rebounded almost to the the .62. and there is good resistive CV just above (50DMA, TL's, FIB)Looking for a reversal pattern in here and then I short it (SEF).
OK I hear you laughing...I know I may be early to the short side and the broad markets still seem to be pointing upwards by most measures but patterns are not entirely in line with this view. Now its no fun just paper trading and I am using tight stops and small positions. As I said early once the bear is solidly back there will be plenty of great set-ups to make serious coin!
Posted 18 February 2014 - 09:20 PM
I have seen it several times before and this one is quite well-defined. It was also present in 1929 and 1973 tops! I keep looking at the Dow Component stocks and a special cross section of my own and many are in very "fragile condition" particularly after the Jan decline even though in composite it didn't seem bad, a lot of technical damage was done pattern wise and support wise.
I have my finger poised more than ever to react quickly here.
Posted 18 February 2014 - 10:20 PM
Another weak retracement. only .38 compared to indices. Huge Wave 4 triangle, thrust (Wave 5) out to high exactly collapsed, now rebounded to the projected triangle apex which always serves as important S/R, we also have 200 DMA just above, and we have come back to test the continuation gap (almost always find these in middle of an impulsive advance or decline). Damn this is a great shorting set up!
Posted 19 February 2014 - 03:35 AM
Posted 19 February 2014 - 04:41 AM
Transports look finished. Thrust out of big Wave 4 diametric in 2013. Sharp Wave 1 down in January.
after a top with a 5th of a 5th terminal impulse. FR/FF put in( all of last wave up(4) retraced downward!
Now a weak .5 retracement on Wave 2 up.
Looks ready to give out, maybe this "rally" extends yet to the .62 or higher...I'm very doubtful ??
Anyway I see a lot of tops that look to be put in late Dec, early Jan...
Posted 19 February 2014 - 05:50 PM
So watched things blast out of gate and thought, o boy, here we go up to the last barrier to the top at .76 FIB and maybe higher.
Then lo and behold just as fast we were plunging through the opening price. I positioned in DOG and SEF placing open stop order up at the high. Had lunch and went for a workout and swim. After lingering on backtest of the CV .62 FIB/50DMA it dived into the close.
I don't see any support here until down to the .50 FIB, see how things react there and I may start building on this trade.
Financials got hit the worst :-)
Biotechs put in a bearish engulfing closing just below where I got stopped out, watch them puke now.
Transports also very weak this whole move up and really got hit hard today.
Hoping this is the start of the "Big One"
Posted 20 February 2014 - 07:31 PM
DOG bit me, stopped out in what sure felt like a short squeeze this morning, vertical move right back to the .62 FIB , no mystery I wasn't the only one who got caught.
Listening to CNBC is like a 2000 dot com flashback. Now we have profitless start-ups like Twitter and Snapchat being "vanity" valuated on Price/User and Zuckerberg dealing out billons for some other message app that has 50 employees and hardly anybody has heard of.
The insanity goes on... Guess I should buy some Tesla before it hits 6000.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 03:30 AM
The chart of crude has bothered me because of the rarity of triangles within triangles especially being centered, also the 2 - 5 wave moves next within a triangle just can't happen. I saw another wavers count and he's got it explaining a lot of what is going on. The first reaction off the big decline during the financial panic is an clear 3 wave up, the b-wave is a very complex running diametric, for larger degree Wave A.
However then for Large degree Wave B we first have an A-B-C FLAT not part of a triangle, its actually a very well defined flat, the triangle is also very well defined so the intervening wave is an x-wave making this a Neely double combination. We had the thrust out of the triangle forming an oddly deficient C wave in the big picture but meets equivalency of the triangles base wave. We then came back to apex and now appear to be drifting back up. Long horizontal corrective structures like this drain the market of directionality. Look at how this whole consolidative move and the final e-wave of the triangle ended centered exactly on the .50 FIB (Blue Line) This is the balance point.
So far price appears to be favoring a return to an uptrend, but I see within this what still could be just a corrective move in this wave down since the thrust. Regardless we are now on the .62 retracement of this wave down and the further we go up from here the more likely we have a new long term trend UP in oil. If we see that high get taken out ($114) then no doubt crude is back and that can't be good for the overall global economic picture. I see this possibly being a Wave A of a FLAT and still a shot at the bearish scenario but it has to turn around NOW! Ultimately either we see it go down below the balance point and have a bigger return of bearish oil trend or we take out that C-Wave thrust high and then we are in trouble.
Posted 21 February 2014 - 10:01 AM
Trying this again shorting the Biotechs...looking for one more last push up to complete.
May have to wait until Monday. I had my stop a little too close the first try.
Gun to head trying to pick the top in something!
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