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Elliott Wave Convergence

Elliott Wave Market Top

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#31 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:09 AM

Nick Me Mega Pop and Drop:  c =1.6 x a.  C ends with another one of those Limiting triangles in wave 4 position, wave 5 pops up to high poking the 76.4 fib retracement and very strong resistance of a downtrend line connecting multiple major past decade tops!  

Looking for a Fib retracement .5 - .62  as corrective wave 2 of  first wave down to go short.

Attached Thumbnails

  • NIKKEI2.8.14.jpg


#32 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 06:03 PM

I mean really, I don't recall even in 2000 seeing straight up mind blowing 300% boner runs quite like some of these!

Just look at this example,  I just keep staring at this and can't believe my eyes while my emotions

vasilate from wonder to terror knowing how this is about to end.

HD  Home Depot blasts out both prior bubble highs in an explosive ascent taking less than 2 years. With a few dips into the lower Bollinger Band quicker than a blink the whole way up.  Well until now. 

I will post more detailed charts of HD, it is definitely on my watch list for upcoming trading!

Attached Thumbnails

  • HDmonthly2.14.14.jpg


#33 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:11 PM

COMP 2-wave down here consolidating at the 61.8 retracement of entire decline and well back above the lower channel line (orange)   5th Wave Triangle in progress.

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • COMP2.10.14.jpg


#34 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:28 PM

HD Home Depot

Monthly ->  Alternate wave counts depending on whether you are in LT secular BEAR camp or

New Millenium Bull.   Lots of issues with the new bull scenario, just one here is wave 1 should never

get fully retraced by wave 2, period.  Here spikes took out wave 1 low.  It is fine for b waves to do so.

From here on I will label the waves according to my a-b-c camp! Wave c the big run up hit exactly the 2.618  fibonnaci extension of Wave a!  Another one of the countless "coincidences" I see happening at this stage of the market and why this is THE PLACE to be looking for a major reversal.

Wave C is a sight to behold with embedded 5-wave within wave 3, therefore a "3rd of a 3rd"  positioned right at the midpoint of the rally or 50% fibo retracement where it should be, often there is a continuation gap here marking the midpoint of the rally however not this time.  One issue is it appears the smallest wave which can't happen but I counted the larger degree 5th wave throw over; often spikes, throw overs, and gaps should be negated when using fibs grids, often you will see me place fib grids where they align at highs and lows with candle bodies not spikes due to this (Connie Brown, Alan Farley and many other traders have documented this) Wave 1 is the extended wave and Wave 3=Wave 5.

 

Weekly -> So you can see more detail of wave structure in orange.  Also I have 2-4 trendlines for both degree impulse waves.  Small degree broke in flat C wave (where larger wave 4 ends) that broke its 2-4 TL (yellow) and then the Larger degree has just completed its 5th wave up (clear 5 waves within it) NEXT

 

Daily ->

A signature "waterfall" decline with this January sell off!  All the big buyers have left town.  This confirms my wave count and HD should offer great shorting ops here on out. It broke the larger degree 2-4 TL (orange).

This stocks clear wave structure makes it a prime trading instrument.

The waterfall had a nice spike double bottom so we are in its A-B-C correction upward in line with broad SP and Dow.  It hasn't reacted much compared to the indiceswhere wave A's have already retraced to higher Fib levels so it is showing relative price weakness.  I am looking for it to make it to at least the first resistive CV at 38.2 Fib and 200 DMA  to evaluate initial positioning  but a lot will depend on overall pattern unfolding in the broader indices.

Oh forgot to mention for those of you in the secular bull camp we would still be due for a large wave 4 decline at the top degree here!

Attached Thumbnails

  • HDmonthly2.10.14.jpg
  • HDdaily2.10.14.jpg
  • HDweekly2.10.14.jpg


#35 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:57 PM

GOOG

 

Lot of irratic behavior  with that huge gap and many other smaller ones along with recognizable but highly mutated wave forms!  Anyway 5 waves up fit all the rules but what a bizarre wave 5???

So far what exactly is going on here at the top I can't put together.  But that's trading rule one if you can't understand it don't trade it and usually its just a matter of time before the pattern develops enough to become recognizable.  Still this things too quirky to trade!  Anyway that big gap is going get filled, you can count on that!

Attached Thumbnails

  • Googweekly2.10.14.jpg
  • GOOG2.10.14.jpg


#36 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 12:32 PM

NIKKEI 225   Heres more detailed look.

 

Very similar to HD stock only we had a big flat for wave 4, here we got a nice Limiting symmetrical horizontal triangle right in one of is most common habitats!

 

So Wave 4 is a huge limiting triangle with final Wave 5 thrust completing WaveC then waterfall decline Wave 1 down, now  in the reaction.


I will trade using EWJ so here is the chart;  wave pattern  slightly different from NIK

Tracking this retracement and hoping to enter a bit higher, mega resistive CV in circle.

Fairly low risk placing stop up at other orange arrow.

Attached Thumbnails

  • NIKKEI2.11.14.jpg
  • EWJ2.11.14.jpg


#37 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 08:25 PM

GOLD SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE!

Bull Hug  = Coil in the upper Bollinger Band   This is a good sign of an impending upward breakout (Bear Hugs are obviously the inverse) moreso the longer price has stayed within it and band has tightened. It drifted above the 50 DMA too.   Sure enough we have gold putting in a some nice green bars pushing the BB upward.  200 DMA is a reasonable target.

 

Broad Markets today rallied beyond my first resistance CV's and just on the first leg up!  Reaching March  new highs looks as though it will not be a problem at all for COMP but now perhaps the SP and even DOW may also. But this market has got to start working off some of this volatility and it can't do it going straight back up forever!  I am on the look out thta instead of a FLAT or ZIG ZAG we may get some large triangles with a ending thrust (to new highs) exhibited by other indices and stocks that I have shown here.  Anyway my short trade list of stocks all continue to show awful relative performance even after today.

Attached Thumbnails

  • GLD2.11.14.jpg


#38 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 08:57 PM

My preferred and really only indicator I've found helpful looking under the hood.

This decline did some serious damage but more significant very little recovery of BPI after

this big a move up....have faith... the end is near!

 

 

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • SPBPI2.14.14.jpg


#39 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 05:54 PM

Here is the COMP with more detailed explanation of my wave count First the unfolding large degree Wave C (or Wave 3 if you are secular Bull) There is no mistake about this mega impulse's clear expanding nature exhibiting mania at its extreme. This is a huge Wave 4 running triangle that has completed and we are now in Wave 5 which looks to be forming an expanding triangle (not apparent in this weekly)

Attached Thumbnails

  • COMP2.12.14.jpg


#40 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 13 February 2014 - 01:21 PM

Sold short Biotech this morning: "Selling the second top" amongst many other technical features, set a stop up @8%  This was the set-up I was looking for so pulled the trigger!

More about this later!

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  • BTK2.13.14.jpg
  • BTK15min2.13.14.jpg


#41 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 09:58 PM

Interesting week;  soon will find out more about this larger corrective structure: zig zags are pretty much out on all 3 Dow, SP COMP.  So pretty much down to 2 potentialities either the FLAT and B waves can surpass A waves in flats, Neely calls them strong B waves. The more I look at this I am thinking top may come April - May.  When the next decent decline sets in here it is important to watch stocks like Nike and HD and some of the her sector indices and foreign markets,  many have already topped out and came back to a larger wave 4 retracement  area or broke down and in pull-backs, in other words if they let go many will have strong bearish declines under way.  Already this market is thinning out quite fast in BPI.

So I am short biotech via BIS etf.  Looking at the BTK we just touched some important projections and so I am short with a close stop just above the projections.  I have shown the running triangle (also called termination wedge or ending diagonal)  Glen Neely is a triangle guru.  Anyway he has observed in this particular formation the thrust out (labeled wave 5 here) usually extends at least the distance of the wave B's price, that 1.0 projection is in BLUE.  However the most common is 1.618 extension so if it blows through this 1.0  we have another spectacular climb and that means the NAS has one more big push up!

Also there is another very common relationship:  the preceding impulse Wave 3 + Wave 4 tends to be .618 and the thrust (measured from Wave E terminus in the triangle .318, that is in brown.  Notice how the two very close in price in this instance.  So it is no coincidence that the thrust has retested this resistance area twice right here. This looks like a 2B top with second test a bit higher.  Great place for a low risk set-up to try short!

I also entered short position In Crude and long the US dollar this week.

GLD put on a spectacular show this week so that trade is well in the money.

Not looking to enter anything else for now.  Wish I would have swing traded this rally but I really didn't expect a straight up move like this.  

So again it looks like COMP and SP may get to new highs, see posts of wave 5 triangles.   Dow is questionable on that.

I'll  post some more technical drivel  over the weekend.  Markets are closed Monday.

Attached Thumbnails

  • BTK2.14.14.jpg


#42 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 15 February 2014 - 05:55 AM

Gold putting in a nice longer term bullish formation called an Adam and Eve Bottom.

My mechanical trading system is about to activate as the XPL (A Hank special MA) in pink is fast

approaching the slower MA.  But you can see it is on buy signal currently. Gold gapped up

and hit our first target the 200 DMA Friday!  HUI also on the roll so far outperforming GLD.

  Hi-5 (another Hank special oscillator) showing stong momentum and

no divergences thus far. No red flags yet on this trade!

Attached Thumbnails

  • GLD2.15.14.jpg


#43 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 09:08 AM

US China Index

 

This should look fairly familiar.  For this count to be in play the current high labeled W.5 must hold! Otherwise we are in W.5 now with a large flat just completed and going to the final high! 

Attached Thumbnails

  • USXChina2.16.14Weekly.jpg


#44 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 10:54 AM

Conoco - Watch that trendline closely!

 

Attached Thumbnails

  • COP2.16.14.jpg


#45 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 04:18 AM

Dow wave count with a Terminal Impulse (extended Wave 1) for this entire large degree Wave C advance.

This shows one leg of this final wave 5 (most often a triangle) taking out Dec high.  It doesn't have too.  Also this Wave a could be stunted wave which is often the case but should not go below Jan low.  Terminal Impulses are only found in Wave C's  and Wave 5's, they indicate a powerful reversal when completed.  So far all the pieces are there. But SP and COMP look like they may be concluding their triangles already???

Attached Thumbnails

  • DJI2.16.14Terminal.jpg






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