Wash, rinse, repeat, repeat, repeat
24 replies to this topic
Posted 12 January 2012 - 05:00 PM
No volume, higher prices, pissed off bears.....
Posted 12 January 2012 - 06:07 PM
Besides this place being a ghost town, we may have our harbinger...crude closed under 100 today....
Posted 12 January 2012 - 06:21 PM
Holy shit, Batman!
I step away for a few hours and look what happened to crude. A one shot plunge under 100.
Didn't put up a fight.
Glad I waited out the WTI and OIH shorts I have - I was having a hard time holding (which was part of why I found other stuff to do - no need to sit at a computer and freakout while you run big headline risk).
Anyways, $WTIC is lookin' top-ish. Nice thing about Crude - a lot of the people buying and selling actually execute the contracts. So the supply / demand thing is real for them. None of this low volume melt-up bullshit. Yes, plenty of speculators - just makes the price action more fun. Plus you can almost trade the contracts 24X7.
Net - the US of A ain't got the mojo to supply the planet with enough consumption to dig China and Europe out of their respective holes. So EU demand for oil will go to recession levels and the parabolic expansion of Chinese consumption will level off (did you notice that US car buying out paced Chinese car buying last month? First time in a while because China is seeing recessionary forces in several sectors).
Meanwhile new production sources come on line.
And Iran? Question: Is Obama going to invade Iran in an election year? One that will be very very negative (because negative works)? When he will be forced to keep his coalition motivated to get the hardcore supporters out to the polls (because negative election cause a drop in turnout - check the turnout numbers for the GOP NH primary - down from 2008)?
He will respond to an Iranian attempt to close Hormuz, though.
So will Iran do that? Why would they? They'd starve themselves of gasoline and diesel (they have virtually no refining capacity even though they are a huge exporter. But they can build an A Bomb. Priorities).
And Is the US going to get a boycott of Iranian Oil going? China has already said "no thanks." They are smart - they will buy the crap from Iran at a discount. No change in the supply equation - Chine will just buy less from the Saudis who will simply supply the European shortfall.
Maintaining the threat of something happening helps both the US and Iran. In Iran it boosts the price of their principal product (what is the going price for exported mayhem, BTW?) In the US it keeps the press focused on a foreign affairs story (Admins in trouble will always do this) and it helps maintain a good price for a product that the US is producing more of - Oil. As long as oil prices don't climb to "demand destruction" levels, more production helps the US economy too - especially the politically sensitive trade deficit. The fracking at Bakken and in Pennsylvania as well as the drilling in the gulf need prices above $85 per barrel. Demand destruction is roundly at the $100 level (these are $WTIC prices we are talking, not Brent).
Right now the black stuff is overpriced.
Oily Anal Cysts will tell you there is a $20 per barrel risk premium on Oil due to Iran. True or not, the US sanctions package that Obama just signed has a clause to pull back on sanctions if it drives up oil prices. Getting the picture? This is a Passive Aggressive Oil policy.
It will range trade between $85 and $100 and may go lower if profound demand concerns take hold (you know - the EU / Asian carnage scenarios we all now know).
Oh - and I resent being called garrulous!
Posted 12 January 2012 - 06:46 PM
Interesting spot on hourly chart for that trade, eh?
Posted 12 January 2012 - 06:58 PM
So can anyone 'splain me the EUR/USD action today?
World thinking the EU will get to do a refi using the liar loan route and get a good rate?
I assume every tick higher there means money flowing back out of US safe haven stuff back to buy dirndls and French lingerie?
(yes - I dare Bungster to post the pics)
Posted 12 January 2012 - 06:59 PM
The dude can trade. Awesome.
Posted 12 January 2012 - 07:10 PM
The spaghetti shows the way once again, LOL.
Posted 12 January 2012 - 09:10 PM
I'll believe it when I see it at the pump.
Posted 12 January 2012 - 10:32 PM
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush
Posted 12 January 2012 - 10:49 PM
Gold with a nasty looking intraday reversal too.
Stop the Madness
Posted 12 January 2012 - 10:50 PM
He needs to take a course on this?
Stop the Madness
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