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Anti-war Rally Begins?


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 05:17 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – February 10, 2003

More computer problems today, so once again, half of what I wrote got lost and I don’t have the energy to retype.

Today, we got word that we might not actually have a war. So which is it? Is war or no war bullish for stocks? Doesn't matter, I guess, the Paper Speculators will find any excuse to buy stocks.

Today, the market started out with a flurry of upgrades by various anal cysts upping their allocations to stocks. Simply amazing.

After 35 months into the worst bear market of our lifetimes, the “Experts” are still piling into stocks. The same Pension Experts who bailed out of bonds and piled into stocks in the November 2001 “rebalancing”. The same group again “rebalanced” again by pushing more money into stocks in October 2002.

What is it going to take to get the “Experts” to turn bearish? As Alan Newman has reminded us, if a 42% decline in the S & P won’t do it, and 35 months of lower prices won’t do it, then a catastrophic decline or a market panic will likely be necessary to turn the sentiment.

The “Point of Recognition” that we are in a bear market remains elusive.

Buddha has the following comment:

“So many crooks, illegitimates and Wolves posing as Grannies that its becoming laughably absurd. PreMarket we get Tommy McAnus out again for Tank of America pumping equities. Where he fields this call is beyond me. I think it comes out of the back rooms of that numbers running outfit. They are in desperate need of offloading excess paper, the docks are stacked high to the heavens with useless certificates and the order down from Capone is to move this junk or else. Once again, the classic criminal coordination between anal cyst and trading desks in the after hours is as common as pizza and apple pie.”

“Meanwhile, on the Blood and Lies World Tour, Reich Field Marshall Rumsfeld is back at home in Munich table pounding for the Turks and demanding that NATO midgets step up to the highwire and fulfil their circus contracts. This guy looks like he hasn't had a good bowel movement in years. Note the dead, gray ashen patina to his skin, the bad comb over and the grimacing smile, like a Paliaccchi on the toilet begging God for some relief but getting none. Help may need to be man-made. An Israeli-style high colonic. Fly in Elsie Rabinowitz from Haifa. She's a world famous Rooter, a top notch Ukranian immigrant and her specialty is administering to the turgid, frozen machinery of old, impotent men. Her top of the line flush which is on special this week is the Depleted Uranium Colonic which for Rumy should be just the ticket.”

And as we have repeatedly documented the last two years, speculative frenzy is increasing, not decreasing amongst the Paper Pyramid Players. Now we have some new financial exotica that allows you to bet on Saddam Hussein.

“TradeSports Exchange Ltd., based in Dublin, offers futures on the Iraqi leader to investors looking to gamble on the war. The contracts settle on the last day of each of the Bettors buy Hussein futures as they fluctuate in value from zero to $10. The contracts pay the full amount ``if for any reason or under any circumstance'' Hussein ``is not internationally recognized'' as the leader of Iraq, under TradeSports rules. March futures are trading at $4.30, April contracts are at $7.40, those for May are at $8.20 and June futures are at $8.40, according to TradeSports Chief Executive John Delaney. That means traders see a 43 percent chance Hussein won't be in power by the end of March and an 84 percent chance he'll be gone by June 30. About 42,000 Hussein futures have traded, Delaney said. `There's been a significant move (in futures prices) over the past couple of days,'' Delaney said. ``Before Powell, the March contract was at 30 to 32,'' or a face value of $3 to $3.20.”
More comments from Buddha:

“Important to have large, elephant sized brass balls at this point in Crack Market. My prediction for Al Green's demise in '03 is right on schedule. I think he dies of stress, a cardiac or something and they just end up dragging him out of the ring boots first. It will be one of the unanticipated shockers that rocks this fece - filled cradle. Only afterwards will the idiot faithfuls realize to their horror what a betrayal his life has meant to them. Only after the caisons roll out along Pennsylvannia Ave, the public funeral, the weeping widow and the endless hand holding amongst the power elites. FOX ratings of burial coverage should spike thru the roof. Closeups of decaying old gargoyles weeping into their Guici monogramed hankies. Once again my rant runs away from me, oozing out like so much Big Gulp Slurpie at the corner 7/11. I suspect Death Pools on Al Green will open soon enough. Some traders placing bets down don't see this drooling baboon going out past the Wave 3 waterfall due to conclude mid year. Others are gaming that he hits life support but hangs in thru the late fall. Who can say?”

I was unable to watch the market most of the day, and the selloff in the gold shares took me by surprise. Lots of price destruction, but so far, not much volume acceleration. Looks like a Riverboater’s Panic. Selling gold and buying Corning (GLW) instead. Some of my entries were a mistake. But the good thing about being in a bull market is that time will eventually bail you out of your mistakes. We’ll wait for the next bounce up and take it from there. But the way things acted today, it may take awhile to recover.

And we cannot rule out the possibility that even the gold and silver stocks get sold first during the first phase of a massive market meltdown, since they are the most illiquid.

And for anyone interested, I’ll be stepping up to the plate to buy some physical gold and silver coins during this weakness to replace the worthless dollars in my savings account.

Broad market volume again remains light, which is still a little puzzling to me. I thought for sure that this morning’s U-2 bounce was the start of another significant rally which would last 3-5 days. But no buying power came in near the end of the day. Lower lows, lower volume still doesn’t sound right. Still no selling pressure to the downside. But no buying pressure either.

Tomorrow, we get a pep talk from Al Green. We’ll have to see where it takes us.

Position Summary:

No changes.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49
AMGN at $53
CSCO at $14
ORCL at $12
DELL at $25
SBUX at $23
QCOM at $37
COH at $32

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
CFC at $55
SYMC at $47

Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16
GFI at $12
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 machinehead

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 05:25 PM

"I suspect Death Pools on Al Green will open soon enough."

CAPITAL idea! The contract pays ten dollars if Alvis "is not internationally recognized" as the leader of the Federal Reserve.

Why not here at Capitalstool? Only because it would be difficult finding someone to take the other side of the trade. :o
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#3 3Martinis

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 05:44 PM

3Martinis nearly spilt a fresh milking of Grey Goose on his flannel PJ's watching the gold schmacking today. Yet he fears not. In fact, he may pull on a pair of Joe Boxers with matching bunny slippers and stagger down to join wyndy at the gold window tomorrow *hic*.

wyndy,doc,buddha...may a thousand bottles of Stoli infest your oak paneled basements, and wyndy...check under the table tomorrow morning as I think MartiniClaus may be leaving you something tonight.....
*hic*
cheers,

OBTW...the newspaper in the bottom of the canary cage is getting dark and spotty in places......confer...

Torrence Bank...mammaries up...
http://www.kansascit...ess/5134919.htm

First Consumer National Bank...mammaries up...
http://news.statesma...cle.cfm?i=56332

Note that both small articles appeared on a Saturday, way under the radar of the news cycle ?? :blink:

#4 PileDriver

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:26 PM

As someone in Intraday said:

"TURD of a TURD"

Bring it!

#5 buttugly

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:32 PM

McManus did not look very convincing raising his
allocation to 75%.

I kind of expected after the cameras stopped rolling.
He would yank off the microphone and mumble
to the gathered HOODS.
"Are you happy now" - "Can I go home now"
:(

His earnings rebound was something like 2004 or 2005.
And his reference to CYCLICAL earnings - puhleasse -
will someone explain to him - it's SECULAR.

And as for this whole charade of BONDS or STOCKS.
What about all the other alternatives - like DEBT.

When McManus goes 150% stocks I will
think about going LONG.

#6 BAREister

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:34 PM

BAREister covered ALL his shorts late today. :o

He still smells a RAT FURbears ™. :angry:

He's phhhhlattt. :unsure:
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#7 purdymouth

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:42 PM

Market officially handed me my ass today. Very painful!
Live and learn.

#8 The End

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:43 PM

BAREister covered ALL his shorts late today. :o

He still smells a RAT FURbears ™. :angry:

He's phhhhlattt. <_<

Still too 'chicken' to go long. :unsure:

Bare,

You keep misrepresenting yourself. You are not a chicken.

Anybody wishing to go long at this moment, IMHO does not see the forest fur da trees.

You is smat not to go long. NOT chicken. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#9 summoner

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:47 PM

About as expected, was unable to watch the market today but did get filled on EBAY short, 5000 shares, let the downmove commence. Will be reloading spx puts as they jam this into Al's speech tomorrow...this pig is too weak to get to maxpain...hope to be full short again by this weekend.
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#10 morass

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:50 PM

Mark, that's a tough one. The talk over the weekend was all about how the markets will go up when the war starts. That was amazing. But now this supposed decrease in tension is bullish. How interesting.
The softening of the Iraqi stance must be softening the brains of W. and Mr. Rumsfeld.
If the stock market truly is the discounting mechanism we're always hearing about, then the market is telling us that Saddam is successfully leading the U.S. military around by the nose.
Today was probably all there is to the bounce.

#11 The End

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:51 PM

I know it's early for this but, the board is dead so0, a little Zeppelin.


When The Levee Breaks
(Bonham/Jones/Page/Plant/Memphis Minnie)

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break, (X2)
When The Levee Breaks I'll have no place to stay.

Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, (X2)
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.

Don't it make you feel bad
When you're tryin' to find your way home,
You don't know which way to go?
If you're goin' down South
They go no work to do,
If you don't know about Chicago.

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

All last night sat on the levee and moaned, (X2)
Thinkin' about me baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago... Going to Chicago... Sorry but I can't take you...
Going down... going down now... going down....
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#12 BAREister

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:54 PM

If we go to war they'll want this market MUCH higher, FURst.

HRFF still thinks we're going to war, and he bases that on the POISONalities of the dramatis personnae.

Would The Shrub systematically prepare FUR war FUR two years just to walk away when poised at the brink?

maybe, but doubtful.

Would Saddam cave or run away?

again, maybe, but doubtful.

Lettuce HOPE there is no war.

"Hope dies lASSt." Russian proverb
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#13 PileDriver

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:56 PM

I let my stops do the thinking and talking. Its too dangerous if I think too much. :wink2:

#14 Ned38

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:56 PM

So what happens to the War Rally if the Peace Rally is effective?

#15 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 10 February 2003 - 06:58 PM

McManus did not look very convincing raising his
allocation to 75%.


McManus should stay where he belongs: on the set of "Oz."
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday





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