Major Cyclic Top In, Recession 2012
18 replies to this topic
Posted 16 December 2011 - 10:05 AM
FCS again did nice job exiting GLD before the the big move down. Back to watching downside support levels.
We are at the first strong support level right now, actually a bit below 200day SMA but holding above the major trendline drawn from 2008 major low and subsequent IT lows. This distinctly defines the last major wave up. This wave ended in a parabolic blow-off climax which I previously commented marked a major top. I don't expect to see it exceeded for some time. The next key support levels in spot gold are 1430 and 1288.
We are going to have great buying opportunities this year and I will be adding back on to my longer term investments in precious metals, but not yet.
The well defined key resistance is 1260-1270 on SP 500 and my bung hole still hurts too much to short again. Easily could get a year end frenzied blow-off type move in equities.
However already John Hussman has gone to maximum defense with his funds which I hold.
Treasuries continue on a buy with yields plummeting again and the dollar is in intermediate term uptrend stuck in a big messy range with outrageous volatility, you gotta be nuts to try to trade currencies in this environment.
Crapvision once again has their trading geniuses pointing out the wonderful trading invers relationship of gold and the dollar. I have posted a relative performance chart of USD and GLD. First, the dollar has varied little in a tight plus or minus 10% range while gold has climbed exponentially. I highlighted areas with a strengthening dollar and yes it seems at first gold declines but then rallies sharply while the dollar is still climbing. Both of these facts make it meaningless information to any real trader.
Currently my only trade is a small long position split SPY and QQQ according to FCS system BUY signal of late.
Posted 03 January 2012 - 07:57 PM
BUY signal in GLD on todays close, entering full long position tomorrow.
In the meantime the BOTS keep celebrating the new year blowing up any few remaining equity bears.
Posted 27 January 2012 - 08:34 AM
Gold still on FCS buy, possibly a reversal pattern printing in which case I will take half profits.
Major indices also looking to be topping out, I will close my long positions and recoup part of
the loss on that last evil short trade! Quite a move up here and I am not waiting for the FCS sell!
Interesting to note both banks and housing stocks joined this wave up with good relative strength.
We can't take out last years high if my count is correct and this is C of A-B-C corrective wave 2 up. If that high is exceeded EVERYTHING CHANGES and more of the same has saved us for now and it will bode well for Obamas re-election.
Commodities just fired FCS BUY so I am going to go long there today.
Trade safe friends!
Posted 03 February 2012 - 10:57 AM
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