Major Cyclic Top In, Recession 2012
18 replies to this topic
Posted 28 August 2011 - 04:33 PM
OK I think its safe to say we just saw "The Top" I was "bearly" looking for in my last series of posts and so I have decided to start fresh thread. We now have numerous Economic indicators and World Equity markets in established downtrends among other I follow telling us global recession will be hard to avert probably starting early - mid 2012. Big question is how bad will things get this time/ Of course, no one can answer with certainty. However our friends at Wall Street Examiner have in the past done a remarkable job of anticipating and explaining how the various complexities of our national and global financial system will react. Pay attention and following the old adage, "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" always serves as a safe and prudent philosphy to follow.
The only major developement this week was a fairly obvious SELL signal on gold, the parabola of price action and gapping exhaustion in GLD were dead giveaways the end was near. We have I believe a major top in here. Watch out for a double top formation that could whipsaw BUY signals back into place before the second more vicious decline. This GLD trade was a nice gainer! Equity markets did break the 1260 mark and as I commented in my last thread I added heavily to my short positions. We are well in the money so far, I have no idea how far this first wave down will retrace but usually they have .50 or greater retracements so I think we go higher before lower. I don't see a clear EW pattern here, I guess some do. One thing is for sure if we just consolidate without much more retracement the next leg down should be a doosey. OK bonds still on a BUY and we've don great on that one! But always need to watch 2nd test of a very major low for a longer term reversal,
I am looking here for a reversal pattern to exit half the trade, other half on the system signal. If you have read my posts you know I do that whenever a reliable pattern emerges at such juntures.
So here are the latest charts for GLD, SP, and TNX. Banksters continue to LEAD this market lower with Shank of America blazing the way. Stay safe my friends.
Posted 24 September 2011 - 09:29 AM
OK it has been a month since my last post and time to update. There are no changes in signals; I am currently long on bonds, out of gold, and short equities in trading accounts. I have non-trading investments in bonds and PM, I did lighten up on PM held in these accounts not long ago(posted this in my last thread) Our bond and equity trades are securely in money. I do not short PM since they are in a powerful bull market and despite this current correction there is no technical reason to strategize otherwise.
My expectations are a continued sell off in equities into Oct then a temporary rally into Jan to March of next year and then a resumption of an extended bear market. Bonds must be approaching their top, whether it will be a sharp reversal or lingering topping process remains to be seen. The only supportive technical features point to 1.5-1.6 on the 10 yr yield.
I have posted a gold chart with the support levels I will be watching with the usual fibo retracement levels of this last impulse up, the first level around 1500 has confluence of trendline, MovAv, and .38 fibo. The .50 is at 1350. If that gets taken out would be first alarm that something bigger is afoot. Wow I called that double top ehhh(see last post)? Just luck? Actually its the most common topping formation so I hit the blackjack this time! Anyway FCS got us out and has safely kept us out; the posted chart shows 7 winners, 2 losers for this period capturing a good chunk of the rise. I will continue to post signal changes usually the next day after they occur so those interested can incorporate this into their trading or building longer term holdings in PM. Silver follows gold almost in lockstep but with much more volatility so I continue to favor trading GLD, also the PM stocks were fun and profitable trading early in this bull market but lately have been very volatile and diverted from gold price moves quite a bit. I have a seperate FCS trading system for the HUI (GDX)but past few years trade them lightly if at all. So thats it for now my friends, stay safe.
PS: I have posted the Trade Performance Table for FCS system on GLD. This is my proprietary system and I am proud of its stats, only those of you that also are system traders and attempted your own appreciate what I have accomplished here, this type of result I only dreamed of in my early years of trading, capturing this much profit compared to buy and hold with only a bit over half the market risk(exposure) and also minimizing draw down (no consecutive losers with minimal draw down during that entire period)is not easy.
Posted 01 October 2011 - 04:48 PM
Going to exit my half my TLT trade on Monday, almost perfect A-B-C down and triple divergent bottom(?), sure it may have more to run especially if the equity markets finally dive out of this ping-pong crap and submerging market indices all point to that outcome. Anyway I am not going to get greedy here, time to pocket some of it.
Really watching that upper trendline of the regression channel and may cash out the rest if yields pop rather than wait on the signal. Also troubling me is that all the bond bears seem to have capitulated including the biggest at Pimco...
Posted 15 October 2011 - 12:29 PM
F'in POS markets...just thought I'd get that out right off the top! FCS signal went long SPY/QQQ Friday so I exited my short trade with a profit but not what I thought was going to be the first shorting op with a big payoff in a long time. I am entering this LONG trade very conservatively 25% my usual position because it is not in sync with larger trend(yet)I also trade using 2 longer term indicators which are both still on short. In addition we are in an extremely piss poor pattern situation for going long(top of a very well established range) I guess I will mention a third factor which is numerous bearish divergences; BKX still not behaving well, credit spreads still going to shit, econ indicators plunging, many others. This vertical stick jam is a nasty bear trap probably instigated by the BOTS. I never had much success attempting to decipher EW counts in complex corrective phases of multiple degree but some like Pretzel logic do a great job. His count suggests we have more violent whipsaws down and up before this is all over and I sure hope he is right about the impending big third down for another try at shorting successfully.
As I previously noted I exited the other half of my TLT trade as rates popped above the triple bottom regression channel. Now close to a system short signal on ten year.
Gold creeping up into what may soon be a buy signal, will post promptly if it occurs.
OK stay safe friends and good luck trading this monster.
Posted 24 October 2011 - 06:55 PM
BUY signal on todays close, going long GLD, full position size.
Nice jump start! Got in at open at 161.7
Posted 02 November 2011 - 02:59 PM
Manage your financial affairs, make sensible decisions, improve your personal balance sheet and increase your financial literacy.
Words of wisdom from your Mommy ?
No, but how about words of wisdom from.......Ben Bernanke of all people. I am sitting here watching him at his news conference on Bloomberg. He just uttered these pearls of wisdom.
This man looks pasty, palid and sickly. He clearly is under severe duress and has not had a restful nights sleep in a good long time.
Recession in 2012. Agreed ! A sucker rally starting soon and extending into late Q1 of 2012 also sounds very plausible.
Bernanke knows what's bearing down on us. And he is worried sick.....
Esoteric financial thinker and student of GANN mathematics
Posted 10 November 2011 - 08:17 AM
Took profits on half my GLD yesterday, trade was up 10 points or 7% in short pop...strong reversal bar pattern has printed and I don't like that it didn't move up with the Italy induced market sell off. System sell on GLD not in but should score a profit when it occurs.
Close to sell on equities probably will be lucky to break even on small long position taken there. I'll post charts, etc this weekend. Yesterday was extremely UGLY and I would be surprised if it doesn't mark the technical beginning of the end..itching to pull the short trigger now.
Posted 17 November 2011 - 03:22 PM
Opened initial short positions on major indices past hour...no FCS system sell in yet to fully position. Suspect GLD FCS will signal sell and I will close the other half of that long for profit. Today sure is a massive rush to liquidity on all fronts and feels like the start of the big one down!
Had a death in family but will get charts up this weekend.
Posted 19 November 2011 - 11:12 AM
So here are some of my latest charts: The SP printed a nice symetrical "limiting" triangle, it could morph into a bullish flag and I drew the downsloping trendline where I would explect that to end however I am very skeptical of this happening. Triangles or "coils" are a very useful trading formation. When they show up they serve as very strong S/R structures. There now exists triple resistive confluence of the 1260 horizontal trendline, 200 day SMA and now this triangle. Thursday we got the thrust out of it and I opened short positions. A backtest up to the breakout area is typical and would offer an opportunity to short again or add. I am placing a stop about the apex area. The FCS has not signaled short, I will use that to fully position.
The FCS is still hanging having me hang on to the other half of my GLD long. Also the TNX FCS never exited bonds! But as posted I sold, the ten year is hovering at its all-time lows and showing no signs of LT reversal yet. The Dow Commodities chart is at a very critical juncture and the way it is consolidating along that LT trendline I STRONGLY suspect a break down. The past months spike in crude has kept it from breaking dwon. Just what we need at this time, another oil shock, more "gas on the fire" pardon the pun.
Finally I posted the Banking index/ SP strength comparative. The financials continue to diverge from the broad market and Rel Strength is at 2009 crisis lows, the banks are badly brokem with absolutely NO technical sign of recovery. Putting this all together, I am truly astounded the market held up this long but we are in the seasonally strongest period which likely will keep it together until the end of the year...this could be wave 1 of 3 down so action will still be a little messy. Thursdays action was most extreme risk off since that last big red bar I said was the "warning shot over the bow" When things crash, all assets will get hit, I still can't believe the hit crude took during the 2008-2009 panic and that sure tells you how much of that market is speculation driven (and still is)
In summary, I would not be opening any new long positions in gold/PM, and if you haven't exited PM trades have finger on trigger. Equities if not short already, open shorts conservatively now, hope for a chance to add more higher but don't count on it. Bonds OK to hold on to for now but don't buy any here.
Stay safe friends and have a relaxing Thanksgiving,
Posted 24 November 2011 - 09:22 AM
Yesterday posted another big red bar and how unusual for a negative close the day before a major US holiday.
I interpret this as tremendous weakness in the market and now both my long term trading indicators and the FCS have turned to SELL. I am hoping the short and usually light volume on Friday will keep the market steady to allow me to position further. Early next week will be very telling...either we short term reverse and I would be watching 1230 on upside or we continue down to 1120ish. Obviously the potential bullish flag formation has been decimated! Gold FCS continues on long signal so I am still holding the other half of that position nervously.
I feel tremendously blessed this day while the number of poor and hungry grows disgracefully large within our nation, the "richest" on the planet. Please don't forget them this holiday season.
Stay Safe Friends,
11-25-11 Friday Update:
Executed half at open, the rest as it dropped out of a consolidation that ened up being the high. So we closed all the way back down to a new low...all I can say is this is a set up for an ugly Monday.
Good if your short ;-)
Posted 01 December 2011 - 07:30 PM
Posted 03 December 2011 - 01:16 PM
Anne shouts my sentiments at this point. The markets stunk of manipulation this past week and now I am convinced its time to follow her advice and "GET THE HELL OUT." I am done trading anything other than perhaps gold and continue to add to my PM bullion, mattress money, and stockpile what I am able. She is correct, the rule of law no longer exists for the privileged elite in our nation whom have also usurped the power of our government.
The majority still continue living in pleasantville as is typical prior to major disruptive events. Time to get at the head of the pack rather than wait until it is too late.
More than ever stay safe my friends.
P.S I will keep posting charts but focus mainly on the gold market which still continues on BUY. One of my two LT equity trading indicators and the FCS flashed from sell to buy in 3 days, never in its entire history have I ever had a trade signal switch that suddenly on either indicator resulting in a loss of that maginitude so quickly.
Posted 10 December 2011 - 04:20 PM
With Central Bank Bazookas now loaded and ready to blast the EU into fiscal fortitude, instantly equity markets worldwide went from free fall to a frenzied risk off ramp up unlike any we have seen thus far; plunging leading economic indicators around the globe suddenly turn upward and are extrapolated to a sustained growth scenario for 2012; financials long stuck in goo at the bottom of the paper asset trash bin are scraped up and value fund bought, and above all, thank God, the Santa Claus rally WILL be on time this year. Yes my friends what an exciting two weeks it has been! Watch that SP 1260 line because when they take it out and I do believe they will, we are in for a total bear blasting rally to new highs into the new year.
I have taken a small 10% long position as system warranted even after the 7% 4-day trade loss last endured, actually it could have been much worse if I hadn't entered the first half higher as a pattern trade.
I will add to this long once the 1260 break is confirmed but as I vowed I am no longer trading with serious money except in gold.
The triple S/R convergence is tightly clustered right on 1260 now. The Nasduck sure looks like a huge expanding triangle with us in the last leg up and it has quite a ways to go. But all trading under the present conditions is extremely risky. On the SP chart the red line is Ave True Range set at 50 periods reflecting intermediate term volatility, it hasn't been this high since the 2008-2009 meltdown yet we are in a fairly drawn out sideways move here when usually it should be contracting, highly unusual but as pointed out by Lee Adler volume has been very thin, bots appear to be in control with little real trading or positioning occuring.
Gold and Bonds are both still on buy and technically flat lining menaing anything can happen. I continue to hold half my long GLD, a swift downward break will probably give us a loss but come on don't they want everybody fat and happy through the holiday season?
Posted 13 December 2011 - 08:06 AM
FCS System signals SELL on GLD with yesterday's close. Just a measly 1% gain good thing I grabbed 7% on first half with a swing trade. May have to do more swing trading with the extreme volatility; I still work a day job so can't day trade it but wish I could.
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