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#46 DogBoy

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:37 PM

How about this for a new by-line:

DOWager --- looting widows and orphans every day !!!

#47 PileDriver

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:41 PM

DogBoy, as for the Naz you're right...

"NO SOUP FOR YOU - NEXT !!!" :angry: - The Soup Naz-i

#48 phatbubble

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:45 PM

re VIX - didn't know that it was a purely 'implied' or theoretical construct (derived from integrating the derivative, if you'll indulge me)....thought it might contain an actual/delta component or smoothing factor or....something. thanks all.

boy pile that's an interesting couple of graphs. it looks like the total % of bullish + bearish advisors added together is decreasing. what third option did the unallocated 20+% pick last month? 'Don't Know/Unsure (But Give Me Your Money Anyway)'? :lol:
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#49 PileDriver

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:49 PM

PHAT, the bullish sentiment is OUTRAGEOUS!

% Bears in AAII survey is only 17%, 51% Bulls!

I heard Maria Fartaromo had a huge orgasm on the trading floor early Monday morning.

EL MAJOR TOPPO my friend!

#50 buttugly

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:55 PM

I just read the fallstreet article that jtom posted
on the first page of the thread

Absolutely Diabolical.

The credit markets recently went to the edge.
Now they are winding up for a second run.
Doug Noland is correct.

2 Questions

1.What happens when you make money on your shorts
- I assume the broker (in my case Datek/Ameritrade) is not liable - but rather it is some other punter?
2. Your cash account with a broker (such as Ameritrade) i that a money market account - is it vunerable?

I would be upset if this market collapsed and my profits
vaporised into an Ameritrade black hole.

Who are the major credit insurers? I have a short on MBI, ABK & XL - any others?

#51 summoner

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:56 PM

Common sense...the last Bear Market Rally as typical of all BMRs was fast and furious..multiple gap ups benefiting only the big boys and burning shorts asses..straight up with no consolidation ...finally after a few days of distribution a gap up open over resistance before resuming the major trend down..remember early Oct the big run below support at 775 early am ..reversal and off to the races..nothing left to prop the market... couldnt rally yesterday or today at support ...down hard and faster then most think ps GTN hang man coming ...go long at your own peril
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#52 phatbubble

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 09:59 PM

EL MAJOR TOPPO my friend!

amen to that. spx puts up nicely since two fridays back.

so: 17% + 51% = 68%. remaining 32% were....unavailable for comment?

funny, my girlfriend said that tyler et al seemed more relaxed tonight w/o maria there. of course, she was in a joey ramone tune, so.....well, so there. B)
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#53 DrStool

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:00 PM

I understand that someone who is not a subscriber made a critical comment on my work. That's fine, but unless you are actually reading and following the methodology day in and day out, then you must be challenging the work on the basis of ignorance. I suggest that anyone so doing should familiarize themselves with the work before suggesting that it is wrong. Otherwise, it just makes me think that they are stupid jackasses. <_<

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#54 PileDriver

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:03 PM

Dead on Summoner, dead on. Huge BMR and a huge bull-hook. The "Wonder Bread" rally - full of holes and air pockets. It'll get crushed like one too.

#55 phatbubble

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:16 PM

I would be upset if this market collapsed and my profits vaporised into an Ameritrade black hole.

butt, you're not the first person to post re this issue. which seems like a slightly ominous and very non-contrarian indicator. i've been wondering about it for weeks. funny how many insurance contingencies are theoretical....

"what if we had a fractional reserve banking system....huh huh....and all the public wanted their money back at the same time? oH HO HO, heh heh.....jeeves, fetch us another brandy...."
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#56 GregFokker

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:17 PM

I love to listen to Arch speak- particularly when he's singing our tune.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:17 PM

Hi Pile,
I've been following your market calls since this runup - your timing has been very good! Just finished listening to Arch Crawford, and the guy was very bearish! Basically what he expects is a continued decline from here into maybe mid-Dec followed by a bounce and then a severe selloff from early Jan into 1Q03. Are you watching closely at the Dec 19th date? Should I go 100% short now and ride it out, or go short now, cover around 12/19 and reload in Jan?

#58 richmtn

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:31 PM

PileDriver: my only concern is VIX. I didn't always
subscribe to Adam Hamilton's SPX/VIX theory
but I ignored it and lost $.

Yesterday you posted some stockcharts on VIX.

What is your take on VIX & VXN?

Here is a chart I've been playing with. Shows the relationship of the Q's to the QQV. I've got it inverted so that up is up and down is down. As you can see the line coordinates with the cash market. It shows the Feb.-March rally and subsequent decline. If you would have ridden this line you would have done very well indeed. Close examination shows it gives advance warning of direction changes. Whops! It looks like we just had one. :D

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#59 Guest_aheadsup_*

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:31 PM

I've been lurking for a few weeks. I want to say to those on the board who still maintain an overly bearish outlook that there might be one heck of a surprise waiting for you.

Consider the ramifications if the following scenario unfolded early next year: Saddam Hussein, on his own accord, might be exiled to a neighboring country where he will live out his remaining years in wealth and relative security. He will turn over governmental control to a contingency of Arab nations, monitored closely by delegates from the United Nations.

This unprecedented move will have multiple positive effects. It will ease tensions in a region embroiled in turmoil for over a decade; it will satisfy (albeit reluctantly and probably temporary) the Bush administration; it will install a much needed footing under wobly financial markets world-wide; finally, and most importantly, it will represent a non violent victory in the war on terrorism stemming negative world sentiment on the United States over aggressive foreign policy.

If you fail to consider this while trading you will unfortunately get what you deserve. Be smart and understand that absolute conviction is deadly to your portfolio.

#60 machinehead

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Posted 05 December 2002 - 10:35 PM

Market crash mistaken for diving contest
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss





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