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Bears Blew It?


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#31 microdon

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:28 PM

Thanks Wyndy for comment. Ord may only be in a few days. Of course if market decides to respond to bad news (and, in fact, the news is bad on unemployment) and does so on increasing volume, I suspect Ord will be out. But you know his method; and it has made him one of the best market timers for the last few years. O'Brien thought move back up could take as long as a week. I think they both expect bounce-back to occur on diminishing volume setting up the slaughter which might begin around Crawford's day of foreboding. What is tough for a simple trader like myself is to be long March in the money QQQ puts with Ord suggesting I may see pain during the next week. I would think if market goes down in response to bad news and does so on lukewarm volume, then it will come roaring back in late morning or afternoon trading. Hey SG, is this what makes for horse races? :unsure:

#32 summoner

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:30 PM

NO portfolio changes...rectangular consolidation pattern broken to the downside, believe we go down into early next week, then ramp back towards maxpain before the freefall into march....TRADE SAFE
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#33 BigWave

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:36 PM

Fred Hickey predicts a major warning out of DELL or INTC soon.

Fred Hickey is the best tech anal cyst on the planet. I know that to the TA & wave guys news is noise; however, every call he has made concerning tech has been spot on. What is funny, is he has also lamented having to be short these past few years when he really prefers buying tech stocks "dirt cheap."His monthly newsletter, The High Tech Strategist, is a steal at $150.00 per year. Combining his insight with the resources available in Stoolville has been very profitable for me :grin:

#34 The End

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:40 PM

Scalped a bit today. Selling some puts at 10:03 am. :wink2:
and buying back a few bucks cheaper.

Still short.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#35 crooked_analyst

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:55 PM

One more point on the S&P fucutures, and we will have wiped away the loss....Gotta love these pricks

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:56 PM

job data will decide where we will go.

it is one of THE numbers boys do watch, a very important one.
Note: They expect a RISE in non farm payrolls :o and they expect unemploament rate unchanged at 6.0% :o

very high expectations!

Remember: We are not in the "bad news is good news phase".

Tomorrow will be a down day.

Gute Nacht! :D

Heaven only knows how the employment date will be spun.

Employment Data

#37 The End

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 07:58 PM

One more point on the S&P fucutures, and we will have wiped away the loss....Gotta love these pricks

Unless you are trading right now, I suggest you not pay too much attention to fucutures in the evening. :)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#38 brian4

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:00 PM

Geez-I didn't think it was a bad day at all. We kept going down in the SPX and Dow setting new lows in both for the move. We took out 840 which we had to and walked this beast to the edge of the abyss twice and had a small rally into the close. The only fly in the ointment was the double bottom at approx 833.25. That double bottom could give us a bounce to suffer through for a few days. This beast is coiled like a snake more coiled than I've seen it in years-this is the range to watch-we go above 8000 on the Dow look for a sharp and painful rally to ensue. Conversely we break the bottom on the SPOO'S at 833 we go down to 824 but more probably straight to 800. Now you notice I haven't mentioned NazQuack that's because it is DEAD it will simply do and follow what the Dow and SPOO'S do. To each his own but i simply don't understand why anyone would game NazQuack-net movement on the Q's in the last two sessions +0.02-in the COMP -4.42-NDX -1.18 nuff said-Trade Safe!

#39 crooked_analyst

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:08 PM

TE...

Iknow, I know...but can't help watch the crap they pull in AH....I know

#40 Bearman

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:14 PM

april access gold 367.60 off 3.10

#41 Tig 'Ol Bitties

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:36 PM

May be nothing, but when I was running through my charts this evening I noticed this troubling developement.

Ratio of the HUI to COMEX Gold....

Posted Image

By the way, I am all for parties, but Mr. Hanky I aint jumping out of any windows no matter how bad you want it.

#42 Guest_alex_*

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:53 PM

Tig, interesting chart - is it possible that the ratio problem would be "fixed" if POG went down and HUI stayed flat? I'm not a chart expert - just wondering.

#43 Tig 'Ol Bitties

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 08:59 PM

Alex,

Definitely, by bringing the denominator down it would definitely improve. The chart is using yesterday's COMEX and HUI figures, but with the COMEX close at $370 and the HUI at 140.92 we are still at 0.3808.

I dont think the chart is really that significant, just an interesting look at where we stand even with the recent ramp in the POG.

#44 thisaintthebottom

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 09:03 PM

this tom obrien thing is bothering me....


he's been expecting a bounce since 880 every day telling people
it made a lower low on lower volume the bounce is coming in...

his system works if volume is distributed equally throughout year but it isn't..

i went short at 868 break of the head and shoulders period..

what i think obrien is missing is the idea that there are times seasonally
when money comes into the market statistically it was proven around oct 10
is a very big infusion where everybody gets up off the sidelines and throws money
at market...

In january there is a minor infusion of cash and reduced selling due to yearend
taxloss selling...so we get the usual january bump....

there is no cash coming and people long now are waiting for the other suckers
to follow them and there is no more cash coming in just people that will eventually
sell at lower prices realizing no one else is coming to the party...

to top it off statistically if oct to jan is up and january is up there is a 15% chance
february will be up as per i think newman...and crawford says january infusion tends to end jan 20

my 2 cents

checkout jrs for 9% dividend yield

#45 Flaming Turds

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 09:15 PM

What do you call this chart pattern?

Harrahs





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