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Bears Blew It?


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:00 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – February 6, 2003

Pepsi joined Coke and came out with the most constructive news I heard all day:

PepsiCo does away with earnings outlooks (PEP) by Jennifer Waters
PepsiCo told anal cysts Thursday that it will no longer offer quarterly or full-year financial projections. On a fourth-quarter earnings call, Chief Executive Steve Reinemund said the practice "was taking too much time" and was "too precise”.

Translation:

Wall Street has become a complete circus. We woke up one day and realized that we were not paying attention to our business. Instead, most of our time was spent being interviewed by Thomson First Call matchmakers, over 20 beverage anal cysts, and crank callers from HedgeHogs seeking inside information wondering if we were going to “beat by a penny” or not.

It has become clear that we were no longer serving our customers. Instead we were working for the gamblers, scalpers, Keno jammers, and paper traders who were gaming our stock price as if it were the Hot Pick in a Chinese card game.

Frankly, we cannot predict the future, given the ongoing lies, distortions, threats, predictions and other Psychic Hotline forecasts coming out of Wall Street. We are better off tending to our business and letting the stock price rise and fall where it wants to, based on real time economic trends and business conditions.

Effective immediately, no forecasts, opinions, or guidance will be offered. We are ejecting out of the Wall Struck Casino.


Likewise, the constant Riverboating here on Wall Struck, gaming 1-minute and 5-minute candles is also a circus. Best to stay short on the trend, turn off the monitor, and wait until the “Stock Market Collapse” headlines appear in the newspaper and the large market decline hits the mainstream newspaper and magazine covers.

Anybody see Toll Brothers’ earnings? These homebuilders are unstoppable. Doug Noland’s nightmare continues. Vast hordes of unemployeds are buying houses in a panic. What better sideline job than to buy overpriced houses, fix them up a little, and sell them to other unemployed people for a proft.

I do not know which way the market is going in the short term. So far, the triple bottom in Euro-denominated S & P’s is holding. The entire European Continent is watching carefully. We have a 50/50 chance of a 38% retracement back up to the January highs. A move up back up there would guarantee that the October lows will be smashed later this spring. The “upthrust”could happen over two trading days during Scam Week.

Seems like the only thing holding up the NDX is QCOM and AMGN.

As for the gold and silver action, remember it’s commodity options expiration week. The usual sweeping and spiking. The shorts were blown out on Tuesday, and the longs were blown out Wednesday and today. Next week I expect the normal uptrend to resume, and the Hoods and Bosses will move over to the equity pits.

Seems like everyone knows that the economy is getting worse. Everyone knows that the tech recovery is not going to happen. Everyone knows about the geopolitical risks.

But people don’t care. They just want stocks to go up. Period. And at some times, it seems that stocks are being pushed up on sheer hope and willpower alone. I have no idea of what its going to take to get people to sell stocks. Or how long it will take.

Buddha has an idea of how things might unfold:

“Title of new intraday drama is "Waiting for Godot" or when do we get hit with the 10 Sigma Event? Suddenly the freak with the shoe lifts and the bouffant hairdo out of North Korea doesn't seem like such a joker. Dr. No has now seized upon uncertainties in the U.N. Security Council to become a wild card out. This creates new havoc in trading troughs as PigMen attempt to game and position for the big War trade to profit-heaven.”

“Not so fast Hogs. What happens if we march chin first into the kitty litter in Iraq only to be overrun across the 38th parallel in a nightmarish sequel to the great B movie "PorkChop Hill"? Waves and waves of yellow fever flooding thru the barbed wire is Condi Rice's bad dream come true. Trading during Bush Regime is more confusing than navigating a Piper Cub thru a South American locust storm.”

“A nice time turn approaches mid Febrary and then a biggie for the new moon on Feb 28. Vicious scum selling in the Gold pits as Metallica participants get shaken out in preparation for next big move up. Bludgeonings frequently seem to happen in metal shortly before equity wipeouts. It looks like rotational games to me but what do I know? It is however an excellent sign that heavy metal rocker Ozzie Osbourne received a serious margin call regarding several million shares of GoldCorp this morning. The part of his brain which was 50% comatose before is now approaching 88% critical levels. Updates from Cedar Sinai as they pour over the wires.”

Sorry, I was unable to find anything exciting to write about today. I feel like I keep repeating the same stories over and over. What else is there to say?

We will not get any real selling action until the indexes start declining and some major volume kicks in. Big selling volume will be the sign that the public has finally had enough and has started to cash in. Low selling volume means HedgeHogs and Program Boxes are still fighting each other between the long and short side, but no real money is leaving the Arena.

Bears had a shot near the close of trading, but didn’t have enough volume to keep it down into the close. Bulls had a minor victory today. The Bears totally blew it. Looked like a shakeout.

Guess we have to wait another week or so for the Option Expiration War Rally Jam Job which precedes Arch Crawford’s post-Valentine’s Weekend Massacre.

Position Summary:

No changes. No more new positions. Bracing for some heavy volatility.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49
AMGN at $53
CSCO at $14
ORCL at $12
DELL at $25
SBUX at $23
QCOM at $37

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
CFC at $55
SYMC at $47

Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 Yaryman

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:39 PM

$13.25 billion in repos today.

http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm

That includes the $8.25 billion O/N repo that showed up right as the market was rolling
over at 10am.

The matrix survives yet another day.

Here's a real gem from a recent MU 8-K filing for their debt offering.

"If average selling prices for our semiconductor products do not exceed our
costs, we expect to incur losses. "

http://biz.yahoo.com...0129/mu8-k.html

#3 sweefraapp

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:43 PM

Best ask for EDS on ARCA is $15.14 to $15.05 - big drop when it opens again (closed @ 15.73).

Now $14.50.

#4 MrHanky

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:49 PM

All I can say about today is...it's not easy to trade against your own government.

I am 100% staying short but I was extremely close to loosing my mind in the last 10 minutes of trade.I even expected it but I am still speechless.

I'm sure my account is up again today.


filthy scumbag criminals..every one of them,they will get what they deserve in time..I actually can't wait for these traders, brokers and anylists jump from their windows during the coming crash.I will probably throw a party.


that's wall street

Nothing


#5 roidrage

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:54 PM

Euro denominated S&P? Is that $US S&P times the EU/$US exchange rate?

rr (hoping he's a Metallica participant who won't be shaken out of the gold market)

#6 realist

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:56 PM

The Bears totally blew it. Looked like a shakeout.

Bears just taking advantage of loading up on cheap putz while the gettin's good.

I can taste it now, it's coming guys..

This is the longest I've seen SG holding VNX so it's gotta give SOON!

#7 roidrage

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:57 PM

All I can say about today is...it's not easy to trade against your own government.

But on the bright side, sometimes trading against govts can lead to Sorosis of the wallet, a benign condition. :P

rr

#8 wndysrf

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 05:58 PM

Not sure how to calculate Euro S & P's but Lance Lewis has been watching it very closely, and he says its holding so far.

The line was 840, but after the Euro got bombed yesterday, it moved down to 833.

Triple bottom off today's close, the October lows, and the July lows.
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#9 mksloth

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:15 PM

Fed adding to the soft patch in the economy by letting go 400 check processors. Apparently, they just weren't cut out for counting bills...

#10 rog

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:16 PM

Not sure how to calculate Euro S & P's but Lance Lewis has been watching it very closely, and he says its holding so far.

The line was 840, but after the Euro got bombed yesterday, it moved down to 833.

Triple bottom off today's close, the October lows, and the July lows.

Using March Euro futures contract S&P denominated in Euros closed today @775. Using Spot it closed @768. On an intraday basis it when right through the key level.

#11 The End

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:16 PM

Notice the nice impulsive decline and the corrective rally. This market will continue to go down until those features change. Betcha we broke that line in the sand of the 20dma of the p/c ratio. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#12 microdon

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:16 PM

Lighter volume on NASDAQ with swing low taken out--not good for bears in short term. It's rare that a Tim Ord and SG wind up on opposite side of a trade, but Ord went long the QQQs near close today. :(

#13 Mr. Beal

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:19 PM

Mark,

Love your work.

My question is about the difference between what we hear and see each day in the US and what we see out of Europe - describing the same picture on this side of the pond. It seems every night before I go to sleep the future markets are soft, very soft or in free fall. They have technician after technician going over the charts forecasting tales of woe.

As we all know a few hours later the jamming and media puffing ensues and the momentum is stopped in its tracts. If not before the open, than within an hour or so...

Now these are largely the same media companies at work. They no doubt facilitate trade, however being the basically cynical bastard I am I can’t help but think this is part of a geopolitical tug of war fought on the margins between the US and the EU. It would seem government market manipulation and media spinning is not strictly confined to our borders.



Beal

#14 fxfox

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:24 PM

job data will decide where we will go.

it is one of THE numbers boys do watch, a very important one.
Note: They expect a RISE in non farm payrolls :o and they expect unemploament rate unchanged at 6.0% :o

very high expectations!

Remember: We are not in the "bad news is good news phase".

Tomorrow will be a down day.

Gute Nacht! :D
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#15 wndysrf

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Posted 06 February 2003 - 06:34 PM

Microdon:

Yeah, I knew Ord would go long at the close. He's a hawk at watching those volumes. I bet he's expecting the same type of upside correction we got in January.

However, the patterns are so identical, I wonder how many other dippers are doing the same.

Rule of alternation says a pattern never repeats itself twice in a row.

If we get an upside explosion, it will likely result in a different outcome than January's.

Maybe only a two day pop, then an immediate downside reversal.

I'm still expecting a pop, unless we get an unfilled downside gap Fri. or Mon.

Remember its OE week next week.

Chinatown.
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!





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