Bearly looking for "The Top"
8 replies to this topic
Posted 29 October 2010 - 06:53 AM
Since my last post when the market looked like it was on the verge of collapse things have ramped up vicously trapping any early Bears cutting off their paws! Only exception are the banksters and this is a notable event. The
last two major tops were signaled by such a divergence. Can we really have a sustained economic recovery without them? It seems the Crapvision theme is the big global players are going to pull us through profiting from revenue outside the USA and there is a tremendous push to buy foreign equities. They just added another Int'l fund to my 401K. Well, I have always been a contrarian. Perhaps longer term it is wise to diversify globablly but right now I think it is not the best time. Tops in Nov-Dec are almost unheard of and my take is we still go up through years end but I am very close to taking out an initial short position. Sentiment is getting frothy no doubt and the CNBC heatmap is a great sign the top be near!
Posted 29 October 2010 - 07:05 AM
Bonds appear to be putting in their top, so far not quite as violent an event as I previously suspected. This may be a 2B bottom in place but there could easily be one more sharp decline in yields to put in an even stronger triple bottom. I decided not to wait around and exited half last week, now waiting for the FCS system or a triple play to exit the rest.
Gold also got a sell signal, nice profitable move here, looking for a pull back adn retest of prior big swing tops there between the blue lines.
Posted 29 April 2011 - 08:31 AM
OK...finally seeing a combination of resistive confluences, fib retracement and extension, nice wave structure, and seasonality to look for a major reversal in equity indices since my last post. At that juncture we had a shocking reversal and I was forced to go long again as Bens QE2 pumped us up. I am now waiting for reversal candles on major indices to start initiating short positions. The BKX divergence now is beyond the extremes at the time of the 2000 and 2008 tops and its relative strength compared to the SP is hovering at the all time low again. I didn't post the HGX but it too is pathetic.
The dollar has taken out major support and plunging. Inflation is ramping into parabolic blow off mode. Gasoline here just hit $4/gal level that occured prior to the 2008 crash. Seasonal cyle also lining up with numerous other cyclical evidence that this is the top. Elliot Wavers have two counts; mine is the most bearish in that we are about to enter major degree 3rd wave of C-Wave decline that should blast out the 2009 lows and beyond by end of 2012. The alternate count by Neely is we are in a corrective triangle and this will be a D wave and 2009 lows should not be violated. For all our sake I hope he is correct but only time will tell.
My FCS has done a fine job of capturing profits in gold...Commodities also appear to topping out but could stage one final blow off as the equities make there first leg down. I am long SLV and GLD per FCS signal and well in the black.
It very well appears we are going to experience a sudden surge in inflation/dollar collapse, force the Fed to tighten and that sparks widespread chaos in world markets. Bears sharpen your claws we may finally be able to pocket some quick coin when this thing blows.
Posted 05 May 2011 - 08:50 PM
What a difference a few days can make! Sold GLD and SLV before the close today per FCS sell signal, bagged about 18% ,,,Closed short on Bonds Tues ,FCS signaled buy and went long TLT (12% gain on short) Tomorrow if we get another down day, reversal candles in place and I previously indicated I am going to close half my equity longs (so far showing a nice profit since last Fall but not yet FCS sell) and initiate a short position in Ass&Pee. I don't short PM's. Da boys Needed to flurp the dollar here fast, Bin Laden card was played first.
Happy trades to you until we meet again. Hank
Posted 10 June 2011 - 11:05 AM
Finally got to close out remainder of equity longs (last post exited about half on pattern trade) now FCS went to sell on all major indices Monday, June 6 was a great profitable trade. Now initial shorts in SP,NAS; I use non-leveraged ETF's. Watching March low to add and LT FCS indicator. Still holding half of Gold mining stocks(I have MF's and ETF's in various accounts),staying fully loaded with GLD and physical. I exited on pattern, see seperate post, no Long Term FCS sell on gold or miners yet.
Doing well with long position in TLT and bonds remain on buy.
Not going to even try to make a stab at how long or how far this decline may go or if this is the big turn of this cyclical bull. See how things look later in the year and if this economic "soft patch" turns into a gaping hole. Benny will keep blowing up the asset bubble, greasing the banksters and Wall Street barrons and F'ing Mainstreet is my opinion, that is the real purpose of the Fed, dual mandate is a load of crap. Anyway now is not a good time to hold any stocks other than maybe some mining stocks as I am, but must be on alert there too. Lets see I probably should post at least one chart. HUI immense support at 500 but IT well established uptrend line broke. Stay safe my friends.
Posted 18 June 2011 - 08:15 AM
Update: Well here we are SP along with other major US indices testing March lows. Break of 1250 the obvious trigger for me to add substantially to current active short trade.
HUI flirting that critical 500 level a break of which I will exit ALL mining stocks, Gold still holding up very well however ...I have a strong feeling we are doing a 2008 deja vu. Crude Oil also rapidly breaking down. Asian markets and most notably China have already taken out major support areas and are in a primary downtrend. Past few days got a bit of a rally, this may carry on short term as Asian markets possibly backtest broken support anyway if you have not dipped on the short side this is a great time to start!
Bonds tried a reversal with serious failure and I think their rally may intensify, staying LONG.
Finally looks like permabears can leave hibernation. Stay safe my friends.
Posted 08 July 2011 - 08:12 AM
Warpsawed again...FCS went long SP on Tues 7/5. also went long GLD and HUI Weds 7/6.
So exited short positions with a loss of 3% I never short gold or miners just play them long and so I am back in GDX and GLD. Bond signal remains long and profitable but must watch carefully quite a sudden spike up in yields past 2 weeks. Crazy market but what can we expect in crazy times...man do I miss the old mega-mania days trading internut and biotech for such easy money.
Posted 02 August 2011 - 08:55 AM
FCS signal went to SHORT friday, closed LONG for another loss, whipsawing in this range has eaten half the profit I made with last sustained run up...all part of the game. So anyway eyes now back on 1260, this will be a "third watch" with a much more likelyhood of breaking down and also have violated the 200 DMA where we sit now. I will add aggressively if 1260 gives way. Economic indicators also rapidly falling apart and double dip is way overdue although housing and employment have been in one continuous dip anyway. My indicators remain on buy in Tbonds and Gold with trades well in black. This rapid sell off in light of very good news regarding the debt deal is reassuring that the bear is out of his hibernation. Interesting view from John Hussman regarding misplaced concerns about which debt poses the greatest threat in yesterdays market comment:
Stay safe my friends,
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