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Paper Apocalypse


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#121 Jimbo

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 04:28 AM

AIG REALLY GOING DOWN THE GURGLUR

GLUG GLUG GLUG

It has lost half its value since 2000 but is still valued at 2.5 owners equity.

Still lots of downside on that one.

Insurers are good value at one times net assets not 2.5!!!!

Their just giant call options on stocks.

Shorting an insurer in this market is equivalent of shorting a perpetually dated call option!!

Having said that some appear to have bottomed out - resonable value.
timoleon

#122 Jimbo

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 04:46 AM

ROCKET TRADE OF YESTERDAY

I see Alliant Techsystems went up 5% yesterday.

Hope somebody out there profited from my advice.
timoleon

#123 Jimbo

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 05:03 AM

PAPER APOCALYPSO

Read the Australian Financial Review as usual at lunch time today.

Guess what type of asset they are trying to securatise now?????

It seems a property develper called Australand is securatrising its contract receivables from off the plan sales of units.

Thats right - it sellls units for no money down - say $5,000 on a $500,000 unit then it securatises the receiveabe - the remaining $495,000 contract amount.

What sought of sucker is going to hold the bag on this one.

Now Australand wont give a damn about signing up every dead beat wino to buy a waterfront luxury unit - its not going to carry the can when all the contracts fall through.
timoleon

#124 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 05:50 AM

Yeah, but would have Pascal shorted gold now?

Well, he first would had tried to work out the odds . . . given that he cofounded the theory of probability.

Why short something that could go against you exponentially . . . even faster than a .com stock?

Especially as there are so many fundamental arguements why the overall trend is up.

My response to the current volatility was to buy COS.UN (Canadian Oil Sands Trust) on the TSX.

Unlike buying an oil futures contract, I get paid a dividend (just under 6%) to hold it. And there's no rollover to deal with.

Just my JP 2 Yen worth.

#125 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 05:54 AM

AIG REALLY GOING DOWN THE GURGLUR

GLUG GLUG GLUG

It has lost half its value since 2000 but is still valued at 2.5 owners equity.

Still lots of downside on that one.

Insurers are good value at one times net assets not 2.5!!!!

Their just giant call options on stocks.

Shorting an insurer in this market is equivalent of shorting a perpetually dated call option!!

Having said that some appear to have bottomed out - resonable value.

My leap puts on AIG expired worthless in Jan.

Small consolation to see I had the right idea.

Think I'll give AIG another go.

I've noticed a trend that when a "Captain of Chicanery, er, Industry" retires, the new guy is left holding the foul smelling bag.

Welch (GE) and Gerstner (IBM) come to mind.

AIG's Greenberg is going to retire soon . . .

#126 torah man

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Posted 05 February 2003 - 07:27 AM

While the gang here has helped me save my 401k and discover bearx, drooy,ryvnk I'll not put anymore money into the 401k instead I'll pay down my debt for awhile.

does your company match any of your funds.

if yes, i recommend not doing that, instead i would put it into the 401k at the most conservative option, i get a money market catagory, and let them match their amount.

this serves you better for the moment with the greatest return.





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