125 replies to this topic
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:08 PM
" we think we are well positioned for the inevitable upturn in the economy"..lol
tryin to spin everything positive...not working
sales are bad in january...
gettin killed now ah....
guiding down slightly!
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:09 PM
Saddam will not surrender, iraq is not grenada or haiti or whatever. If he surrender he will end like saddat.
"they" will ramp it tomorrow. Watch out, futures will begin to move up at 3:30 new york time, just half an hour after euope did open, that means fat money for the boys, because weak shorts go short directly at the open then boys let it fall and bumm bumm bumm squeeze the shit out of them.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:13 PM
Sloth, it's going to be easy but not that easy. Saddam won't surrender. Once we blow up Bahgdad why bother? There will be a period of time before victory is declared.
War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
could burn down
We jammin still
Full Extreme Ultimate Rejects
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:14 PM
A 2 day war is certainly possible but how about the other side of the coin from Richard Maybury's Early Warning Report courtesy if the latest Zeal.
'If I was Saddam Hussein, here would be my 3 part battle plan. First I would contaminate all my oil wells with nuclear, chemical and biological poisons, to prevent US forces from getting near them to fight fires. Then I would ignite them all, as in the 90-91 war, producing thick clouds of smoke that would restrict US air operations and blind airborne surveillance. Third, with the playing field levelled, I'd make it a house to house guerrilla war, turning each city in Iraq into a Stalingrad'
Tricky times ahead, will Hussein be as foolish as last time, or will he have learnt to at least give it a fight?
And whatabout the gold price? Everyone who's long knows that there's no war premium there, even though that's what the press report. So possibly a nasty war could actually create a real premium of $25-$50
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:15 PM
they warned and the stock bounced up 40 cents right after the warning..go figure
went from 12.68 to 13.08 in a flash
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:21 PM
Another vietnam would really change quite much. Some say it is necessary to bring down some folks flying high in the sky back down to earth. I dunno.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:28 PM
What I'm saying is: the gold market will judge by Monday any war action that begins over a weekend. Do you want to be long or short, under those circumstances?
Have you studied the action of the gold market at the beginning of the Persian Gulf war?
Have you noticed the bearish divergences we're seeing in the sluggish action of silver and in the mining stocks? Are you carefully considering how commercial hedgers haven't budged in their short positions?
I'm 50% long miners, down from 100%. I don't like the action above 360 POG. There something about this that bugs me.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:38 PM
I am fairly new to this business. I am enjoying it immensely.I have been reading mark to market for awhile. great stuff. seems to me as gold has been bullish for a while now, the price has to do with the state of the union as opposed to the war. i don't see gold going anywhere no matter what happens to saddam. anyway, this is the best damn board around. very educational and always good for a smile. glad to be aboard.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:42 PM
I agree. There is something about this that "bugs" me too but I'm not going to over-think it. Vote of NO confidence in both the war and the US economy seem to be the driving force in gold's rise. Iraq could be just the beginning and not the end.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:45 PM
Mark, you write consistantly excellent articles on how AND why the markets are imploding. There are very few who are able to maintain incisive and informed comment day in and day out. You are one of these rare breeds.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 06:54 PM
I take issue with the jamming. Not that "they" won't try; I just don't think it will be succesful. They are seeing diminishing returns and will bow out to save their ammo for lower market levels. Why?
2 unfilled DOWN gaps in as many weeks. Maybe I've missed something, but I have not seen such an occurence since last summer.
failing efforts to prop currencies/squash gold. BOJ's effort Monday is already fading.
there hasn't been a succesful futures ramp (sustained till the open) since the market turned after the first week in January. Recent 3AM spikes have been sold into.
A market fall now is explainable on Iraq, whereas a rally after a victory in Iraq is attributed to Bush. Best of both worlds. It will be much easier to rally the market from lower levels, since Da Boyz know the real reason this POS market stinks.
Of course, one of the best features of "da jam" is it's suprise and stealth factor. This is strictly a short squeeze technique and has a limited duration of effect (about 30 minutes recently).
My only concern is all the "experts" coming to the bear/gold side (PIMCO's Gross et. al.), but we are nowhere near denoument. I do think we'll see some kind of limited capitulation event before the next market turn. I expect, like Mark says, that little money will leave the market at such time. Need to wait for the Iraq situation to play out before that happens.
Hope everyone here had a good trading day.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:00 PM
Has all to due with currency worldwide fiat blowups to come... not war... give that a rest.
Not to mention massive printing and devaluation of the worlds strongest fiat currency, the US DOLLAR...
Cisco's chambers comments are a joke... basically he sounds like Greenspan, saying nothing while saying something. Perfect sentence, sounds like his attorney's cooked it up for him.
What if the economy goes down the shitter John?... What are your customers planning to do then big man?
Staying 200% short the Q's, since over a week ago, with NO PLANS to cover anytime soon...
Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:08 PM
They will throw every penny at the tape to prop it up.it is not their money and they get paid either way.they just hope to prop it long enough for the economy to turn,but that is years off(maybe decades).they will prop in the afterhours too so they can sell large positions the next day.csco was down over 50 cents after hours and they brought it back positive.(it won't last but they did it)..
as long as their are short sellers out there,the maniacal ramps will suck as many as they can into covering.most people still believe we are in recovery mode..there are still plenty of believers..
during the crisco conf call,every sentence ended in"when the economy recovers".which means they are in big trouble.
Posted 04 February 2003 - 07:11 PM
Excellent post Mark. One of your best. Very funny. I was out all day. My refinancing agent was asking me about Venezuala and where the markets are headed. Only good news all week is that opposition has backed away from Chavez for now and the second attempted coup has failed. Listening to some sun crazed media astrologer on FM talk radio on the way home, you know, the overweight girl who used to clerk at Fidelity in Woodland Hills and just decided to parlay her hobby into a multi million dollar run inside the instant action Astro market. She says Mars aligns exactly as it did on 9/11 come this March 4th thru late April. So there we basically have it boys. War begins in that window. This means as swing traders we should see the PigMen crater the indexes into that time frame to 'discount' the 'uncertainty' and then turn right around and V rocket the first sound of bombs falling. February still dead on course to be a serious Scarlett Letter month packed to the gills with confessionals from adulterous CEOs and company betrayals. We are leaving earnings season now, riding out on the methane mouthings of J. Chambers. I look forward to the day when his press conferences are accompanied by police escorts who show up to cuff him,book him and drag him off in front of the cameras on charges of diversionary fraud, numbers running and false testimony. The precedent is already just in today. Scotland Yard busts crackhead Courtney Love for going ballistic on a transcontinental flight. Used to be that was standard rock star behavior. But Since the shoe bomber, things have changed. Now they don't ask questions and they don't care;her sorry ass is going to have to dry out in the Tower of London. I say soon enough we afford the same treatment for earnings lying CEOs. Have the police wait outside each conference room and just cuff them as they get into their limos. Instead of avoiding the heat and weekending in the Hamptons, make them face down Sipowitz in his office off Hells Kitchen.
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