Jump to content


Photo

Nervous Energy


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
135 replies to this topic

#1 wndysrf

wndysrf

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,219 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 06:26 PM

Every upscale neighborhood in Southern California has a luxury car wash. Where the most stunning women go to get their BMW 745il detailed.

I was sitting next to one yesterday. The usual tall, thin, blonde with an exceptional figure. Wearing one of those black velour jogging outfits.

She was extra fidgety. Constantly fumbling with her car wash receipt and the measly two dollar tip she was holding in her hand. Anxiously waiting for her car to be finished. Occasionally playing with her hair. Fussing with items in her purse. The left foot engaged in that nervous tap. Eye contact with others to be avoided at all costs.

I wondered why she was so restless.

“I’m so tired of being the superwoman who must work out everyday and is banned from eating chocolate. So high a price to pay to stay in top form for my millionaire husband. His criticism of my figure is relentless. I’m dying for just one Haagen-Dazs bar.”

“These car washes are the worst. Full of male vultures. Like this guy sitting next to me pretending read that Barron’s. When in reality he’s staring at my breasts as if they were some kind of artificial apparition. I wish there was a womens only waiting area, so I wouldn’t have to feel like I’m sitting out here naked.”

Being a short seller is no different. Constantly checking the Asian markets which are so volatile, they trade wilder than coffee futures. Clicking and watching the overseas action in the dollar and U.S. stock index futures. Constantly fiddling with stops. Always fidgeting, wondering when the next stomach turning jam job is going to appear.

“I’m so tired of being a bear, who must constantly protect his position and avoid the hysteria jam jobs. Desperately clicking on the NY Fed web site to check for Repo Blasts. Trading against your own government, who is trying to keep things propped up. It truly is a speculator’s nightmare.”

“These topping patterns are the worst. Nobody knows if the prior highs are going to be retested, or if another March Madness blowout is going to occur. How much longer are things going to go sideways? When will we get a rollover where heavy volume starts coming in?”

But the short seller’s discomfort cannot be matched by the migraines and ulcers suffered by your garden variety mutual fund manager, desperate to keep his fund outperforming the indexes and anxious for that front page photo op in Barron’s Mutual Fund section.

Found in this weekend’s Barron’s:

“Plenty of fund managers are preoccupied with ‘upside risk’, the perceived hazard of missing a potential rally in stocks. The broad unwillingness to sell aggressively lends weight to a common remark that managers must ‘participate’ in the upside if the market rallies to the sounds of bombs falling. In 1991, the rally was so sudden there was no time to get in, thus investors should position themselves to capture a rally now.”

“The continued willingness of investors to own tech stocks allowed the Nasdaq to perform better than the broader market last month, as ‘mad money’ piles into the technology sector to ensure participation in any emotional, post-war rally.”

Imagine the stress of a shrink wrapped Manhattan skeleton married to a fund manager, who takes out his hostilities by telling his wife that she’s “not skinny enough” and her breasts are “not quite shaped right”. In the meantime, she is fielding 3 calls a day from her Iranian plastic surgeon, enjoying a 7 figure income thanks to unlimited Breast Augmentation Series III Unit Trust securitizations pulled off with ease by Household Finance.

But imagine the even higher stress of the fund manager. Anxious to pull in a 2003 bonus, but the only way to achieve returns is to throw his 4% cash reserves into RMBS to HeatMap it with the momentum players, hoping to be the first out at the top. And money currently “hiding” in homebuilders and generic drug stocks must immediately be transferred to QLGC, MXIM, and KLAC if there is any sign of a tech rally. And if that rally fails, then positions must be sold immediately, provided that the rally failure does not occur at the end of the month. And of course, at the end of the month and at particular “chart failure signals”, the inevitable phone call comes in from the fund’s CEO instructing the manager to hit the “Program Buy” button.

So many signals.

So many conflicts.

So much stress.

The constant dread of “4 down years in a row”.

And the sickening thought of your wife playing tennis with that Iranian Plastic Surgeon, who has no trading stress, but instead he has to endure the stress of seeing 15 beautiful women each day in his office and having to hold back his libido.

Last night, the Nikkei opened right at the exact low, ready to plunge into the abyss, and the Bank of Japan promptly swooped in for the usual interception. Immediately, the news hit the Bloomberg:

“Nakahara has advocated a so-called inflation target to fight almost five years of falling prices and has urged the central bank to print more money and buy foreign bonds to increase the money supply.”

Later, another release hit the tape, mentioning that the Bank of Japan was ready for “massive intervention” to prop up the U.S. dollar and drive down the yen. I went back to find it again to quote it for today’s discussion, but the news item mysteriously disappeared.

Of course, the auto stocks like Honda rallied over 5% on the news, pushing up the Nikkei by 200 points. With the yen advancing over the dollar and the U.S. consumer spending reaching terminal speed, how can anybody expect Honda to beat last year’s results?

And in today’s U.S. markets, we had the usual jam jobbing, short squeezing, hysteria bouncing, and motion chasing.

Yet we went nowhere.

The degree of propping, pumping, and inflating has reached extraordinary levels. Is there any better case for buying gold or silver?

Since I was out of the office most of the day, I am unable to comment much on market action. The downchannel remains intact, but some sideways action can be expected to work off the cliff dive drop from two weeks ago. As long as the 45 degree downslope stays intact, then the trend is your friend.

Anybody check out the HedgeHog results in this weekend’s Barron’s? Anybody notice how many of them were listed? Can you believe that so many HedgeHogs and mutual funds are still around, plump with cash this late in a bear market?

Has any money really left the market?

No, the mad rush to the exits hasn’t even started.



Position Summary:

No changes.

We are 56% short, 32% long, 12% cash.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49
AMGN at $53
CSCO at $14
ORCL at $12
DELL at $25
SBUX at $23

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
CFC at $55

Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 06:49 PM

For those of you who did not know this little stat. Here it is.

EVERY time the market makes a lower low, then the low in the previous December, in the first quarter, the market was down for the year.

How many people said it would be an up year? Alot. They will be wrong again. :wink2:

No change in My position.

Wndy,

Your comments where great tonight. As they are most of the time.

I am not brown nosing, they really where.

The other night, I was out of my head, I hope you can accept my apology.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#3 Miss Moneypenny

Miss Moneypenny

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPip
  • 806 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:04 PM

Aha! Now I know why every guy I've ever dated always insisted on taking my car to the car wash for me! :D Thanks for the laugh tonight Mark.
The moment you stop and analyze what "should" be happening, instead of what "is" happening,
is the moment you have to hand your money to the next trader - Blackbelt
Call me kinky, but I pay to see Doc's Anals!

#4

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:11 PM

LOWRY'S predicts 90% down days dead ahead!!!!!!!!!

GANG, LOWRY'S & INVESTOR'S INTELLIGENCE ARE THE OLDEST & BEST SERVICES AROUND--

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:42 AM ET Jan. 31, 2003 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A pioneering market technician says a fresh bout of intense stock market selling is on its way.

http://cbs.marketwat.......{AF6F9627%2...

#5 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:22 PM

R640,

You have been a member since Sept and this is your first post. Good one and welcome to the best damn site, on the net, for people like us. I guess you knew that already though. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#6 Fartpolio Manager

Fartpolio Manager

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,931 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:23 PM

For those of you who did not know this little stat. Here it is.

EVERY time the market makes a lower low, then the low in the previous December, in the first quarter, the market was down for the year.

How many people said it would be an up year? Alot. They will be wrong again. :wink2:

No change in My position.

Wndy,

Your comments where great tonight. As they are most of the time.

I am not brown nosing, they really where.

The other night, I was out of my head, I hope you can accept my apology.

I stand by my previous position... marginally higher at end of 2003... I hope your stat gives ya a lot of comfort, but it seems to me that all of these "for sure" stat-things like if the NFC wins the superbowl, etc., well... it seems like these relationships started breaking down a few years ago... I guess we'll see if old saws like "buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets" hold up as well.

I think we'll have a very sizeable rally later in the spring, and it could even surprise the bulls by the strength of it... I also think we'll have a nearly equally sized rout later in the year... of course, it's just my opinion. As a trader, it's academic to me what the meters say on 12/31/03, it's fun to guess though...

#7 longOnUranus

longOnUranus

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,015 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:26 PM

I thought Lowry's made meat seaoning and tenderizer. WTH. I'll eat a rare steak, but I prefer them well done. Best results when baked in a 4000 point DOW oven. The lower one.

Right on the "mark" as usual, Mark. Thanks for your efforts.

#8 Hiding Bear

Hiding Bear

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,517 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:28 PM

"A senior Finance Ministry official told reporters that the BOJ had sold about ¥700 billion for dollars in several rounds in the second half of January.

Following this news, and with the additional boost of upbeat U.S. economic data and stock-market gains, the dollar rose over ¥120 in New York trading on Friday to a three-week high. Late Friday in New York, the dollar was trading at ¥119.89, up from ¥119.06 late Thursday."

Inflation target? Are they going to order everyone to raise prices 3% on a certain day? Maybe on the Emperor's birthday? And if you don't raise prices, will you become the target?

Hey buying US$ is deflationary, not inflationary, by taking money out of the system.

A much better approach would be to announce that the yen is really a piece of paper without value and that gold is a much better investment.

#9 The End

The End

    Anything is possible!

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,101 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:29 PM

Fart,

No doubt, the end of the year #'s are meaningless to most of us. I was just sharing.

I know you think it will be marginaly higher by year end, with plenty of ups and downs.

This stat is NOT like the superbowl though.

For the record, I say we see 6,000 before we see 10,000. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#10

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:31 PM

I thought Lowry's made meat seaoning and tenderizer. WTH. I'll eat a rare steak, but I prefer them well done. Best results when baked in a 4000 point DOW oven. The lower one.

Right on the "mark" as usual, Mark. Thanks for your efforts.

Don't worry LoU,
I thought Paul Desmond played alto sax with the Dave Brubeck Quartet.

#11 Ned38

Ned38

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,460 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:35 PM

Joe Morello on drums

#12

  • Guests
  • 0 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:37 PM

What market letter is Morello writing for? B)

#13 lb

lb

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,050 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:41 PM

Excellent thought, research and writing. Thank you Mark,

Here in Mountain View CA, the city manager showed some charts and figures and stuff to give an idea what and how the city was doing. First time for some cut back but no big deal (yet). What was most interesting was the drop in sales tax revenue of around 33%. Now we may have been hit harder them most so far but that figure indicates some serious non spending. But a “good” war should get everyone out to the stores.

#14 martialcomp

martialcomp

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 739 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 07:46 PM

TE, could not agree more.

I think reality is finally here. Where is the money going to come from to propel the market higher?

401k's? I doubt it. Most of the people I know have had to REDUCE or STOP their 401k because raises have not offset the cost of health insurance, and health insurance skyrocketed the beginning of this year.

This 1 factor is causing employers to pay LESS of the health premiums for employees, causing employees to pay more.

This, in turn, is causing wage deflation even for people that got raises recently.

It is turning out that this is the year for the bear. I was 18-24 months ahead when I predicted (in 2001) that the housing bubble, consumer debt bubble and stock market bubble would accelerate to the downside. This will be the year it happens.

I also think that Doug Noland's commentary this week is interesting. He says that we could end up with hyper inflation after a deflationary time because of the credit excess. Basically, he said that, the longer we extend the credit and consumer debt bubble, the bigger the chances of hyper inflation. We are not like Japan, we are not conservative, judicious. We do not save money. We do not respect others, we riot when things get tough.

A lot to be said for the Japanese people. They have endured years of deflation and recession.

Also, a look at Southern California reveals that we are literally living off of housing inflation. We invent and/or produce very little. Yet, we import food, oil and water from other places. How much longer can this continue?

Also, Davis may accelerate the process by signing a bill to allow the VLF to be increased by almost 3 times the current amount. Can you imagine all of those screw balls out there with BMW's, Mercedes and 40k plus SUV's borrowing money on their credit cards just to pay $1,000 to get their vehicle licensed?

#15 wndysrf

wndysrf

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,219 posts

Posted 03 February 2003 - 08:06 PM

Martialcomp:

$1,000??

Try $3,000.

All macho men here in L.A. driving those $55,000 Ford F-350 crew cabs and those Lincoln Navigators are now paying over $1,000 for registration.

Davis plans on tripling that.

Whip out the plastic. Maybe Wall Street can securitize those receivables.

Why not?

Everything other type of payment stream is....

"California VLF Receivables Trust Certificates"
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart