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Monthly Digger - February 2010


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fwiw, that is my take as well.

dharma

 

 

Hoye just sent out an update on the USD. Last week it went above its 50 week moving average. In all but one case since 1980 when this has happened, the dollar rallied to its upper 50 week bollinger band within 2 months. So the dollar should move to the .85 - .86 range.

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You have to like Silvercorp at the 200-day, if it gets there. I respect it as one of the few juniors paying a dividend. I think it is also the lowest cost producer net of byproduct credits, like negative $6/oz. Which I guess makes it about $9 less/oz than what SLW pays per ounce under its streaming agreements. I don't think it can grow too much bigger without taking its cost somewhat higher, though.

 

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Does it look to anyone else like the dollar has about completed an ABC up?

Watching that as well for possible USD ceiling, although assuming A=C, believe C projects to ~80.8, so appears we have a way to go yet, by which time I assume 1025-1035 will be in play. Always ~80% in (prefer some cash on-hand for my own mental well being), doing some light buying here, saving the balance, anticipating more downside.

 

Quoting the Airplane guy; "Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue," ..

 

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That was a dead cat bounce if I ever saw one.

 

NGD 1 year range is $1.42 - $5.02 has a gap about 3.64 no problem filling that now. Other charts breaking down are manageable short term but if spot closes below its 10yr 200 day MA then you can expect all charts to be repairing until spring/summer with the usual caveats like warring.

 

Mad dash to cash always raises the dollar chart lately. If 85 cents is in our near future then regular markets are just beginning a crash. Real panic sets in when government rates have no choice but to go up because they will be electronically printing to pacify the masses. It won't work this time around.

 

I need to see SRS back in the hundreds to confirm depression level markets.

 

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what a day. up an down an up an back down. im feeling sick. now its portugal? what next? blah.

 

Just a normal day in the gold markets, you'll get used to it. :)

 

I had dumped my AUY options but put them into a junior which was slapped around a bit like most.

 

You couldn't tell any drama from the charts of most of my juniors.

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what a day. up an down an up an back down. im feeling sick. now its portugal? what next? blah.

 

I've been in and out and up and down over the past few days. I'm back mostly out, not counting the more illiquid juniors. All told I'm off less than 2%, which isn't bad considering. Note this is just in my trading portfolio. I still hold the bulk of my positions in certificate. Of course, those illiquid issues can be pretty bipolar. Having sold some stuff yesterday and gotten some good fills on buys on Chesapeake tempered my losses. As long as I have the capital at the bottom, I'm happy. HUI ~300 in a few weeks would be a gift from heaven. Kind of extreme but maybe. I think a 1.618 of A takes us to 313.29. The 1:1 at 375.18 is in the rearview mirror for now. And if that happens, I don't think I could refrain from buying some calls, either on the GDX or GDXJ or the bouncier issues like XRA.

 

In time, through the pain, glory will be ours. And soon.

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