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#91 Plantagenet

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 09:54 AM

Here is the answer to who is going to buy the Long Bond. You are!

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams....


Due to job changes and inheritances I had three different IRAs until recently. I liquidated one of the three in December. My hope is to be out before confiscation. It's hard to plan because the rules are Calvinball.

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#92 oryx

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 10:49 AM

It is.


I think i recognise the avatar, and definately the prose as wndysurf

#93 Charmin

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 11:51 AM

Weekend headline at MarketHype: "U.S. dollar getting stronger"
I guess the pigmen contrarians would like to pimp some commodity stocks and see the dollar higher. Yeah, with a job market as good as this.
http://www.marketwat...2010-2010-01-09

If the dollar and yields don't go higher then I can expect to pay more money at the pump and for everything else affected by higher energy. That ought to help the job market recover.
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#94 Jorma

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 11:58 AM

It is an accepted fact that on Tuesday after Black Monday 87 somebody directed by the Fed ,probably, stepped into the MMI index pit at the CBT and started buying and buying and buying some more. The MMI index future is now defunct but it was an index meant to track the DOW 30. While this is an accepted fact I don't think the exact details of who the principal were, from the top to the bottom, the traders in the pit, have ever been revealed. I find this sort of surprising because you know, people talk.

Later we got the formal plunge protection team but there again besides the guys at the top, Fed, Treasury, White House we have no details.

I seriously doubt there is direct market intervention on a regular much less habitual basis but lacking proof who is to say. This very uncertainty and the widespread belief that it does happen could be said in itself to be a means of control. And I mean control in a bullish direction. The faith in the permanent backstop is the bulls best friend. The funny thing is you could never get them to admit it. After all bulls more than anyone are the biggest supporters of the free market and have made an ideology out of it. So how can one be a free market partisan and love the invisible hand? Got me. I've never figured it out. Of course for many the free market ideology is simply a cynical rhetorical position. The same thing has been more obvious in regard to the Fed. After all the noted libertarian Greenspan became a demigod of the free market crowd by relentlessly controlling the credit market. You can't find a bigger disconnect than that. That one man controls or at least very strongly influences a market is the pure antithesis of the meaning of the word market. So it goes.

The Feds "control" of the credit market is over rated as far as direct control but the control of expectations and 'confidence' springs from the concept that they control the market directly, in that perfect behavioral virtuous circle. If Bernanke was to come out today and say we are no longer going have any Fed Fund target or set the Discount rate it would be the end of free markets worldwide as we know them. Go figure.

As to the stock market now I think the patterns don't show direct intervention but rather the workings of institutional mechanisms, government, financial, media, aimed at the common goal of inflating asset prices. The institutionalization of the mechanisms creating rising stock prices have been honed since the early 80's. Of course there are accidents but every up cycle demonstrates ever more efficient operation of the machine.

Who needs guys bidding relentlessly in the pits when the vast majority of trading is now done by computers, often outside the exchanges, buy a very very small number of players. Admittedly the thin thin overnight Globex market would be ever so easy to drive.

Anyway looking back on 09 the biggest surprise and the biggest hook was the Feb March plunge to the low because it just seemed to confirm that the mechanisms of control had failed. With QE and accounting laxity on the way it made no sense for the market to march lower day after day after day.

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#95 Drano

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:03 PM

If they were to force IRA's and 401K's into bonds instead of the stock market, what do you think would happen to the price of stocks? Do you really think that the big market makers want to see this happen?
Of course I'm caustic!

#96 DrStool

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:07 PM

Few comments-

It's been a very long time since I have seen 5 pages on this thread by Saturday morning. Significance?

Fascinating line of discussion, well written, clever, even funny at times. We are capable of great things when so motivated.

Let's face it, the government isn't the only one with a vested interest in moving the market higher. Virtually all major players can act in concert to keep this going as long as the Fed is pumping in $16 billion a week in cash. The permabid will not end until that does.

Also, it is easier to manipulate the market higher than lower since the public is also overwhelmingly prone to want higher prices. When the smart insiders are given the signal that the Fed is about to pull the plug, they will position themselves accordingly. One day the market will just collapse. There's no doubt in my mind that GS and JPM would have by then built massive short positions. But we will only know a few weeks after the fact when the Fed reports on the trading profits of the large commercial banks.

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#97 DrStool

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:08 PM

Robot Trader is definitely Wyndy.

It's too bad he went off the deep end before. He was chain posting the same wrong things here day after day, in spite of my repeated requests that he stop. He was repetitively abusive to anyone who was (correctly) bearish. He was at his most bullish and abusive in October 2007. On October 12, 2007, I had enough and I pulled the plug.

When he went over to Clearstation he apparently alienated everyone there with his chain posting of after the fact charts and little else. Now that he's posting at Zero, he seems to have found his creative voice again. I'm glad to see it. I wish him only the best, and hope that he has overcome whatever mental problems led to the bizarre behavior he exhibited here.

Losing him was a damn shame, but it was a decision I felt I had to make, and which I have never regretted and do not regret now. I will never allow the camaraderie you have developed here to be poisoned again if I can help it.

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#98 DrStool

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:10 PM

If they were to force IRA's and 401K's into bonds instead of the stock market, what do you think would happen to the price of stocks? Do you really think that the big market makers want to see this happen?


The Treasury market is Job One. The stock market is a sideshow. When push comes to shove, stocks will be sacrificed. The implications and effects of a 6% yield, or godfurbid 7%, on the 10 year are simply unthinkable.

Watch what happens when the MOU lose control again.

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#99 Charmin

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:38 PM

LOL...Charmin...me too...

but...every Cramerican eating chili with their fingers in black socks and boxers got long into the close for number mutual fund mark up Monday.....the large mouth bugg eyed bass Maria even mentioned it after the close when she reported how many "pershent" we were up this week..... the up week this week confirms "guaranteed"double digit returns for 2010.....................see Whiskey Haines, Wild Turkey, and IV's......


There have been three Mr. Widget 8 day cycles in the last month and they began with a gap up.
Dec. 10 gap filled
Dec. 21 gap unfilled - 1100 area
Jan. 4 gap unfilled

If the trend we've seen is the result of cause built up from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9 then I'd be on the lookout for exhaustion of that cause.
http://www.StockShar..._1263054629.png

There is also the possibility that the horizontal cause from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9 is in addition to what we've already seen and there is a a potential of another 50 points higher in the spx. This can be seen in the PnF chart.

How about the usual January expirations affect:
"The next pattern is that next week will be this month€™s options expirations week. And while expirations weeks tend to be positive, that is not the pattern for the expirations week in January. The Stock Traders Almanac notes that €œJanuary Expiration weeks down big 8 of last 11 years€, and expiration day (Friday of next week) €œExpiration Day Dow down 9 of last 11 with some big losses€. http://www.streetsmartpost.com/

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#100 Drano

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 12:52 PM

The Treasury market is Job One. The stock market is a sideshow. When push comes to shove, stocks will be sacrificed. The implications and effects of a 6% yield, or godfurbid 7%, on the 10 year are simply unthinkable.

Watch what happens when the MOU lose control again.

We are speaking in two different languages.

You are speaking in the logical, rational language of cause and effect.

I am speaking in the language of political power, arrogance, and desire for short-term profits, and devil take the hindmost.

I hope that logic prevails, but it hasn't for the past coupla decades, so.....
Of course I'm caustic!

#101 DrStool

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 01:01 PM

Implausible deniability

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#102 psyche doctor

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 01:07 PM

Let's face it, the government isn't the only one with a vested interest in moving the market higher. Virtually all major players can act in concert to keep this going as long as the Fed is pumping in $16 billion a week in cash. The permabid will not end until that does.


PERMABID. I don't think I have ever heard that one before, but I like it.
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#103 Speakeasy

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 01:29 PM

Implausible deniability

“Matters relating to AIG securities law disclosures were not brought to the attention of Mr. Geithner,” Thomas Baxter, general counsel of the New York Fed, said yesterday in a letter to Representative Darrell Issa, a California Republican, and Edolphus Towns, Democrat of New York. “In my judgment as the New York Fed’s chief legal officer, disclosure matters of this nature did not warrant the attention of the president.”



Posted Image

You smell something, Brick? Smells like the stench of mendacity, don't it?

Geithner made the decision to pay banks 100 cents on the dollar for their AIG swaps tied to subprime mortgages, according to a November 2009 audit from Neil Barofsky, the special inspector of the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program.


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#104 Speakeasy

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 01:35 PM

The momo stopped at the 50% fibo line and is divergent. Either friday was the throw-over top or it is just ahead somewhere between here and 1230 IMHO. Next week we have 70 B of new treasury supply hitting and the historically negative Jan. OPEX.

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#105 mdporter

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Posted 09 January 2010 - 02:23 PM

Implausible deniability


I guess turbo timmy needs an amount of $300 billion or more to have to pay attention.

:rolleyes:
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