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#16 shorty

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:14 PM


That is why there is very little marginal cost to move the SPU and consequently the market cap for the whole market.

Until you can demonstrate the truth of this with hard math,
involving reference to the volume of futures activity,
and average volume in the underlying,
this will remain a preposterous overstatement.

I'll demonstrate it with easy math

full initial margin requirement for an e-mini S&P futures CONtract is $5,625

thus the entire frickin' front-month open interest of 2,406,352 CONtracts could be controlled for a paltry $13 Billion FRN's, approximately one-tenth of one percent of the total federal Gov't Great-Recession bailout tab

aSS to marginal cost of moving the underlying SPU, there is none, since index arbitrage kicks in and does it for you aSS soon ya gap up the fuctures

butt anywaze the real marginal cost that matters, since ya can't do the above unless ya can back it up with more FRN's in case some pathetic little feller tries ta fade ya, is the marginal cost of creating more free unlimited FRN's with unaudited mouse clicks in secret gov't darkrooms -- that cost is zero

aSS to reamspective volumes, again that's irrelevant since aSS pernted out above program tradin takes care that fer ya

if you must have documented proof of all this, you'll hafta wait til we warm up the tar and poke rails, then they'll start squealin' like lil' piggies

in the meantime we can each believe what we freely choose to believe, that's life on earth until judgment day, at which time them Gov't baSSturds :angry: shall be caSSt into the fiery furnace of burnin' hell :o fer all eternity :ninja: , whilst yer Shorty savors his well-deserved seventy (count 'em, 70 :) ) nubiles, only stoppin' in between ta rest, take extra vitamins, and CONsume maSS quantities of KKD Original Glazed, Raspberry-filled Glazed, and Glazed Sour Cream donuts plus an occasional giant Philly Steak & Cheese with greasy fried peppers, carmelized onions and genuine lard-fried french fries, unlimited diet Coke Big Gulps ta wash it all down, and dessert of half-pound Hershey's Chocolate bars and Breyer's Natural Vanilla ice cream with melted butterscotch topping and chopped cashews and pecans.....day after day after day, gal after gal after lucky lucky gal.

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#17 Drano

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:25 PM

I will be leaving for the day in a few minutes. You know what always happens when I leave :ph34r:

Don't say I dint warn ya.
Of course I'm caustic!

#18 Bungster

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:26 PM

I'm starting to sound like a broken record butt, the market still looks OK.. :blush:

nyud.png

Plot of 20DMA of up volume minus down volume on NYSE....It seems to have been a good tool in the past.
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#19 Drano

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:29 PM

, whilst yer Shorty savors his well-deserved seventy (count 'em, 70 :) ) nubiles, only stoppin' in between ta rest, take extra vitamins, and CONsume maSS quantities of KKD Original Glazed, Raspberry-filled Glazed, and Glazed Sour Cream donuts plus an occasional giant Philly Steak & Cheese with greasy fried peppers, carmelized onions and genuine lard-fried french fries, unlimited diet Coke Big Gulps ta wash it all down, and dessert of half-pound Hershey's Chocolate bars and Breyer's Natural Vanilla ice cream with melted butterscotch topping and chopped cashews and pecans.....day after day after day, gal after gal after lucky lucky gal.

Shorty, man,

why, why, why, if you're having all that other stuff, why would you have diet Coke when you could have the Real Thing. Get some of the Mexican Coca-Cola that has pure cane sugar. Or, maybe more appropriate for where you're gonna be, get some o' dat Kosher Coke, made with pure cane sugar and carbonated with carbon dioxide that they get from natural gas. That stuff burns the back of your throat out when you take the first swig. Glorious. Nothin' better.
Of course I'm caustic!

#20 shorty

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:35 PM

Shorty, man,

why, why, why, if you're having all that other stuff, why would you have diet Coke when you could have the Real Thing. Get some of the Mexican Coca-Cola that has pure cane sugar. Or, maybe more appropriate for where you're gonna be, get some o' dat Kosher Coke, made with pure cane sugar and carbonated with carbon dioxide that they get from natural gas. That stuff burns the back of your throat out when you take the first swig. Glorious. Nothin' better.

gotta watch me figger

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#21 shorty

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 07:49 PM

By a vote of 103-89, legislation to legalize poker, blackjack, roulette, and other table gambling received long-awaited final approval last night in the Pennsylvania state House. Gov. Rendell plans to sign the bill today.

The gambling expansion, coming as the commonwealth struggles to pull itself out of the recession, is projected to create thousands of jobs and pump $250 million into the state's revenue-starved coffers.

By patching that budget hole, the bill averts the threatened layoff of 1,000 state workers. <_<

"This is a commonsense :mellow: , bipartisan piece of legislation that makes our gambling facilities more competitive, improves the public's confidence :huh: in gambling, raises money we desperately need . . . and most importantly helps put thousands of people to work in a brand-new industry," said Rep. Dante Santoni (D., Berks), chairman of the Gambling Oversight Committee. "Allowing table gambling is the right thing to do - not just for today, but for the future." :rolleyes:

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#22 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:04 PM

How?
By buying S&P 500 stock index futures at the ask until all offers are taken out, then CONtinuing to hit the next batch O' offers, until everyone backs off and we gap up, triggering automatic risk-free index futures arbitrage buying in the underlying caSSh markit.

Who?
The United States federal Gov't.

When?
Whenever they damn well please.

Why?
To make it appear that the economy is better than it is, so they can maintain enough popularity to reamain in power and milk the system for their own personal financial enrichment and sick satisfaction.


Yep....Quantitative "Pleasing"....this is insane whats going on...Revolving credit implodes, people are applying for food stamps that were making 100k and gadget stocks are putting in space needles... 150 a month to surf the net on a 2 inch screen and tap away till your eyeballs bug out texting your friend that you you just took a sheet and are about to wipe ????? We got societal problems...not only stock market disconnects.....

Was talking to a successful trader I know today and he said the governments hand is so far up Wall Streets arse it can grab it's tonsils......

Do I think this has been manipulated ? Yes, I do "now"....the marching orders were given to the few "privileged" mafia families left that would not be in existence today, if it were not for a back door bailout, to pump the market if any weakness were to rear it's ugly head....especially after seeing today's close.

Mutual Fund Monday ? WTF...........it's a given ??? The sheep are sheared. Two bubble's and minus 150k in equity?

Let's see Monday....I was never in the rig camp but I am starting to believe it now given the low volume and predictability of the crap that's gone on the last 10 months....same garbage too...this will end in a crash. No pullback.. until.... a break....then a water torture mind foulking slow motion crash
that screws battered bears and cramerican dip buying bulls who are trying to "catch" the "dip"......

This is the "third" bubble we have gone through,,,a "money printing" bubble....after this one ends....it's over,,,

1250? I'm waiting....
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#23 mdporter

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:11 PM

The California budget circus started today. Opening shot by the Governator labels the deficit at $20 billion. But, that number ASSumes that the Feds will hand out a free $7 billion to CA. If they do not do that, the deficit is $27 billion.

That's alot of money to be short when your tax receipts fall every month.

The state is in terrible shape. It's hard to see a way out.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

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#24 jickiss

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:16 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

First of All, Dear Shorty, You are Right, for the Reason that to manip da Spooz up does not take very much coin, in the Grand Scheme of Thimgs.

But to add Background to what Shorty has posted, let's take a walk back in time. Back to the thrilling days of yesteryear....Back to the Days BEFORE the Gospel according to Mr. William O'Neil was the only thing that mattered.

1. Girard Bank. Hey, Doc! you must recall the Existance of Girard Bank in Philly. This bank was like many others, and they had anal cysts in the Trust Department! This was before the only anal cysts that mattered were on the Street. They actually knew something about the Firms that they invested in. Commissions were Huge. This meant that day trading and flipping and all the rest were IMPOSSIBLE. "Value" Mattered. P/Es Mattered. Balance Sheets mattered. Management was known. The equity market "Made Sense."

The Above is Something that many born in the Later Days Know NOTHING ABOUT. Them in charge of Countless Billions today are really mere Gamers. Game Theory rules. Algo-rythims rule.

How did it Happen?????

Easy. O'Neil figgered it out first. Momentum Moves the Markets in the days of pure fiat! As more and more liquidity entered the system, being FIRST Mattered. No time for Analysis Now. He that Moves First (to buy if MoMo is Positive, WINS.) First Out wins if MoMo reverses wins.

Along the way, it greatly helped when all of the CFA types came to Believe that the Standard and Poors 500 was, in fact, the universal Benchmark Portfolio.. (Shorty gets this for sure).

In the transition years, (from about 84 to 89, the biggest Equity Players got info from the Street before the Key anal cysts changed their estimates. Later on, even this did not matter, for the medium of Front Running the Liquidity to build Price Profile that was Validated by the other Players Emerged. Then, All firms beat every estimate (consensus of the Street, Girard et al were long gone, Baby) by a penny. The managements were not Morans. They had to beat every consensus estimate every Quarter to CASH in their free un-expensed OPTIONS..HOOHA! Not for Quarters but for Billions....Thimk Farmer in the Dell. Hi-Ho!

Now, the retirement systems of the non-Federal Alphabets and Cops Fire Teachers and all the rest is funded by Equities at 100 PEs. HooHA! Funded at 100 times phoney yearnings. hoo ha.

YOUR ARE A MORAN IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THAT THE PPT IS ALLOWED TO MANIPULATE THE MARKETS IF ORDERED TO SO DO, AS THIS IS IN THE US CODE. READ IT. IT IS LEGAL. READ THE US CODE. Read the U S Code Section. Print it out, and glue it to the cabinet in the Kitchen next to the Re-Fridge.

The More your realize that Politics is the Master Science on Earth, NOT Economics, the easier it is to understand what Shorty Said, and what your jickiss has outlined above. Whole Books (ok, Movie Scripts) could be written...it matters not.

The Dirty Hand knows just Why the System is being Walked up, (or the Can Kicked Down the Road, if you like Cans better than walks) since the March Bottom area.....Anybody want to post the Real Reason????? your jickiss will NOT GO THERE.

anyway, Without Free money (read essentially -0- st yields) the mechanism will cost more to implement...but how much would rates have to change to stop the Manip is the Question that your jickiss will not Touch here, either....for now.

rather, let's just look at the CDE Chart, and notice that the ABC correction is OVER.

cool.

Back to something easy, the Chart of the jickiss Stock of the Year Twenty Ten. Fiftay!

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"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#25 phatbubble

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:19 PM

SLW recovering from the December bloodletting.

BigFarts weekly view doesn't include today's close, which was 17.20.

If I'm right about silver this year, SLW gonna give Jick's dog a run fer its money.

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Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#26 jickiss

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:32 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and


Dear mdporter,

several years ago your jickiss posted the Analysis (simple Math Analysis) of the numbers on Calpers that showed that the Amount of Coin that had to be Paid Out to them that were Due Pension Checks every month would entail Selling off Assets if the Asset Value in Total of the fund did not Increase by known amounts.


easy to understand....have you seen any analysis of these numbers lately? NO Wonder the PPT has to goose up da Spoozer.

If Calpers has to liquidate to pay pensions, what then? They can not sell their private placements, (Unless they note-phoney them up and the Fed is a buyer of notes at par that are worth 13 cents). If they sell any bonds they own, then there goes the Interst income. What is left? Equities?

your jickiss would love to see the numbers on this Calpers imbalance potenital....

Major Trouble will hit if, repeat, if DC does not send cash money to Kali...a soon too.

"Send me cash, before I crash,
Let me pay the crowd at bay!
To Terminate is not an option
Send a Pit Bull, not a Dachshund!

jickiss!

Edited by jickiss, 08 January 2010 - 08:33 PM.

"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#27 Drano

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 08:32 PM

SLW recovering from the December bloodletting.

BigFarts weekly view doesn't include today's close, which was 17.20.

If I'm right about silver this year, SLW gonna give Jick's dog a run fer its money.

phat, you worried about the MACD?
Of course I'm caustic!

#28 patents

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 09:37 PM

I promised myself that I was not going to look at the thread tonight and that I was going to concentrate on the beautiful and good things in life, but I just had to punish myself I guess.

I sincerely appreciate those who seem to be grasping the stock market concepts. I most sincerely appreciate Shorty because, as strange as it may seem, I have developed great admiration for his combining an understanding of the market mechanisms with his humor. Bravo Shorty and others.

I truly urge each and every one to first study history and historical events. If we do not learn from history, we are condemned to relive it (as we are). From what has happened, it becomes easier to understand what is happening.

The important aspects are these two events/conditions:
a. The concept of daisy chaining stocks prior to the time of the Great Depression and why the securities laws were enacted in the 1930s era. An add-on is the Glass Steagall (spelling??) act that put some limits on what banks could do.
b. Then jump forward to Robert Hellers 1989 work (the WSJ editorial for example, I believe).

Having a working knowledge of these two aspects provides only the basic of the basic explanation of what is going on.

Does anyone deny that a single entity can cause 100+ point DOW moves in less than a half hour? If so, there have been quite a few reported instances in which a single "clerk" no less entered a wrong buy/sell program information that moved the DOW 100+ points. (If I have to provide references, I can did out my old Internet links or find my paper files.)

Through the past decade and more, the laws and regulations impacting market transactions have changed signifcantly. Glass Steagall was repealled for example. The concentration of major market players has boiled down to essentially two: GS and JPM.

The enabling even extends to the Department of Justice and how the Antitrust Section treats the Fed and members of the Federal Reserve System. What you and I do would be subject to the Antitrust Laws, but the Federal Reserve System is considered to be outside of their applicability (used to be clearly stated in the DOJ Antitrust Guidelines).

So, I agree with Doc that there has always been manipulation. That I do no dispute at all. My point is that the mechanics of the manipulation has changed at least over the years from the 1920s to today.

Now Shorty is correct with his analysis of how much "margin" would be required for you and me to buy all those future contracts. I will repeat what I said before. The important thing is where and how those contracts appear on the accounting/financial books of the owning entity. Futures are shown (as I understand GAAP) only on a mark to market basis for the difference in value. How much may be controlled in a nominal sense or how much margin is obligated, just does not appear on the public financials of a company. Anyone who trades futures and filed a personal income tax form should understand this difference in treatment between a futures contract versus a stock, bond or even options contract.

Next to be understood is the concept of leverage. The whole market does not have to be traded every second. However, the whole market is essentially marked to market to determine market cap.

So, back to the earlier question about how many futures contracts are needed to move the market 1 percent. In truth, all is takes is 1 contract and that being the last trade value. All the outstanding contracts do not have to be traded, just that last one has to achieve the price/goal.

Even Madness, while not believing in manipulation, innately understands the concepts of what is going on. (For example, why should the cash market sell when the futures are high? The whole point is to move the market higher and ABSENT any reason to sell, why would there be any selling of the underlying stocks?)

Here the Heller piece is important to understand since the manipulation generally happens in the futures market. That is the lead dog, so to speak. The stocks will follow and be bought by others.

In recent times, the manipulation of the markets is for the most part higher. While the manipulation to support the market does not have to be in that direction, in theory; I sincerely believe that at this time, the markets have to be propped up because there is real fear what might happen with the populace if we get another major down market. There is simply too much to risk that the people may awake, IMO. But this hypothetical reason is not necessary to the understanding of the mechanics.

Anyway, there really is much more, but I think that many on this board are finally starting to see the wizzard behind the curtain, which analogy is good today as it was all those many years ago (and wasn't it around the time of the Great Depression come to think).

This information is really in the public domain, but I will agree may be counter-intuitive and may violate the basic American belief that people are essentially good.

As an aside, (economic) game theory is just good fun as far as I am concerned. As an economic theory I feel it is so much superior to classical micro or macro-economics, which have gotten us into this mess.

Now I am getting my wife angry at me for ignoring her.

#29 shorty

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 09:39 PM

jickiss is back!


and


.....to them that were Due Pension Checks every month...

tell 'em me an my Persuader got there pension checks right hear
cum 'N' git 'em

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#30 Charmin

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Posted 08 January 2010 - 09:44 PM

It is what it is...

Both the weekly and daily looks pretty bullish.


Since we don't see sellers taking control the question to ask is there evidence of weakening demand.
If so, then sellers may take control
If not, then does buying continue to get riskier

The SPX took off on Dec. 18 when the financials XLF hit swing low. The XLF just encountered a gap down from Nov. 16. If that gap holds then the spx may encounter supply. http://www.StockShar..._1263001289.png

Waiting on the next swing high sellers.
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