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#91 Drano

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 02:38 PM

It finally dawned on me what you are doing...

...to which I say

Well I'm dumb and don't get it, so can you 'splain whatcha mean?
Of course I'm caustic!

#92 Drano

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 02:39 PM

we are all in the same boat as humans.

If "we" are all in the same boat that the humans are in, what are "we"? :huh:







:lol:

Aunt Cletis asked me to post this.

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#93 Dharmaeye

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 02:42 PM

That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. ;)


Remember to think like a criminal. They have to move all the money available into stocks.... before they can take it.
and/ or Weimar Germany where the stock went up with the fiat down until they both collapsed completely.
Suspect will have thrashing around for years with inflation and deflation destroying just about everything.

#94 Jimi

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 02:49 PM

and where is the Tony DOW going ?....30,000 ?

reading a lot of stuff on the mo mo boards....people have gone nuts,,,,420 on Crapple...350 on Scamazon....cause of a farking "tablet" and "kindle"...this is batsheet twisted crap....gadgets jammed up every orifice............

9 month's ago this was the worst economy since the Great Depression...

Now IBM 300..............maybe so............nothing matters anymore anyway.

My father in law was in town for xmas - they just shipped out. He's in his mid-70s, a seven-figure committed Cramerican with way-y-y-y-y too much exposure to momo for his age. He couldn't sleep last March - was contemplating a sale of his house as he was getting completely destroyed. Now, he's smiling about all the Apple and Amazon and Google and other stuff that's made him whole again. Tells me about some of the stocks he's bought recently on the advice of CNBS. He says he bought AOL because it was "cheap." Starts asking me whether I've heard of this or that mid-cap ticker that he's relaying from the recent Barron's - never heard of any of 'em.

My wife & I have given up trying to convince him to reposition his high beta portfolio. Makes me sad.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
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I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#95 dogsie

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 03:06 PM

That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock market should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. One might assume that the Adninistration, going into the election, would like like to see a booming stock market, and I think their minions like GS can make that happen as long as there are no regulatory problems or impediments.;)


It may happen but that is what many said last year heading into the election. There was more stake then to, the threat of a liberal coming into office.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. Abraham Lincoln
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it George Santayana

#96 DrStool

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 03:13 PM

There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

July and October 2007.

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#97 Jimi

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 03:16 PM

That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock market should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. One might assume that the Adninistration, going into the election, would like like to see a booming stock market, and I think their minions like GS can make that happen as long as there are no regulatory problems or impediments.;)

I don't know Summers' views, but it seems to me that far more important than a booming stock market for public confidence is some recovery in residential real estate. The shareholdings for most Americans is pretty limited - what limited wealth they'd accumulated through, say, 2007 existed as equity in their home. You see these stats about 1/4th of all Americans now being upside down in their home - I believe that will continue to trump everything related to asset values & consumer confidence until clear recovery is underway and home values are going up again.

Before the real estate crash, I think a link between the stock market and public confidence made more sense - back then, home values were assumed never to decline, and therefore, the stock market was the easiest public barometer of economic prospects, and thereby, public confidence.

I think most Americans now believe that a rising stock market raises few yachts, and its performance on the upside isn't going to generate the same dynamics we might have assumed of them in years past. Downside performance for the major indices, however, would confirm for many on Main Street the financial pain they feel.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#98 Lemur

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 03:28 PM

There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

July and October 2007.



I hope you are right for the sake of my shorts but this struck a chord with me...

Let's look at the connection bettween the Dollar and SPX - they had for a loong time been connection inversly. Falling dollar resulted in rising SPX. Then suddenly something happened in the beginning of december. The relation ship stopped working - it was when the dollar started it's correction against the downtrend. A rising dollar failed to make SPX go lower. That.s when we got the first, "the dog didn't bark" clue (Solution to a Sherlock Holmes Mystery). When something that is supposed to happen, doesn't happen - watch out!

http://www.traders-t...?...114508&st=0

#99 capitall

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 03:33 PM

and where is the Tony DOW going ?....30,000 ?

reading a lot of stuff on the mo mo boards....people have gone nuts,,,,420 on Crapple...350 on Scamazon....cause of a farking "tablet" and "kindle"...this is batsheet twisted crap....gadgets jammed up every orifice............

9 month's ago this was the worst economy since the Great Depression...

Now IBM 300..............maybe so............nothing matters anymore anyway.


May be 30K for the Tony Dow. Who knows? The government is doing a "Fake It 'Til U Make It" program. Jack up the stock market. And the bond market. I don't see why they couldn't do both, using Helo Ben's methods. And of course they are paying people to buy houses. They could fail, I suppose, but they are leaving no stone unturned. As long as no one audits the Fed or the Treasury or makes the banks do real accounting rather than funny accounting, it can probably be done. Government and banks working together "doing God's work" of creating (money) out of thin air. How spiritual. :lol: :lol: :lol:

#100 MrHanky

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 04:17 PM

There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

July and October 2007.

They can let treasury yields rise a little bit,but if long term bonds move more than another 75 BP or so.......it will be big trouble.At some point they will have to send the $$$ to treasuries.

Nothing


#101 Drano

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 04:49 PM

How nice. The Shell Oil company needs someone to accept transfer of some of their funds out of Nigeria, and they have chosen me to receive them.

:P
Of course I'm caustic!

#102 phatbubble

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 05:33 PM

My father in law was in town for xmas - they just shipped out. He's in his mid-70s, a seven-figure committed Cramerican with way-y-y-y-y too much exposure to momo for his age. He couldn't sleep last March - was contemplating a sale of his house as he was getting completely destroyed. Now, he's smiling about all the Apple and Amazon and Google and other stuff that's made him whole again. Tells me about some of the stocks he's bought recently on the advice of CNBS. He says he bought AOL because it was "cheap." Starts asking me whether I've heard of this or that mid-cap ticker that he's relaying from the recent Barron's - never heard of any of 'em.

My wife & I have given up trying to convince him to reposition his high beta portfolio. Makes me sad.

Sounds familiar. I co-manage my Dad's portfolio. It's all about picking stocks for him.

He talks now & then about how there are "damn good companies" that are or were "cheap". Sometimes he actually seems to get a little affronted by the idea that the market suggested one of these damn good companies wasn't a damn good company, as evidenced by its stock price going down.

I just leave that dialogue alone. It's like arguing about who would win a fight between Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny. Totally surreal.

Plus, I need to preserve credibility, for when I'll really need him to listen.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#103 Trader Joe

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 05:47 PM

Sounds familiar. I co-manage my Dad's portfolio.


BWHAHAHA

My parents barely have 2 nickels to rub together, they survive off Social Security and Medicare

Good News though...

"When ya ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"
_______________________________

They came to the US (Brooklyn) from England (by way of Canada) with $300, me and an old 1954 Chevy 4-door

Looks like there going out the same way....$300 and a 1996 Malibu

#104 phatbubble

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 05:52 PM

Its gonna be fine at least till march. Till that moment, let get to 1200 on sp500 please. earn easy money. "Deluge after us".

I can get my brain around the "top in Q1" scenario, although nothing would come as a surprise.

Never seen a year with this sort of carnivalesque "Main Event" type of astro setup. Ever.

Expect anything.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#105 phatbubble

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Posted 27 December 2009 - 05:57 PM

BWHAHAHA

My parents barely have 2 nickels to rub together, they survive off Social Security and Medicare

Good News though...

"When ya ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

The drag is that he's excellent at buy timing - was amazed when I went through his stuff just how many positions he'd bought at the Oct 02 and Mar 09 bottoms.

He's just been bad, really ratshit-awful, at knowing when to sell.

Definitely could have been multi-$M retired by now, but lost 80% in the dot com meltdown and rode 2007 down from the top too. Whooof.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.





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