Rationalize Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Many hours of studying charts, and wondering why the stocks stopped where they did after breaking the more commonly used 200 MA. When I ran the 1000 MA on both the crash of 29 daily and the crash of 87 daily looking for the weekly 200, I got the same result, direct hits on the crash low. But after running thousands of charts on multiple time frames, the 900 actually seemed to give a better fit for stopping declines/advances after a 200 MA violation. There were so many direct hits I quickly lost count. But there are many instances where the 900 gets slightly overshot and the 1000 does do the trick. The market in 1958 was classic example of this, where a battle between the 900 and 1000 MAs raged for 6 months, before finally clearing the 200 upside... There were also many times where price broke significantly thru the 200, yet did not make it all the way to the 900, so I did some more playing around and found that the 500 MA area very often was where those mid-point stops occurred. The 500 week was where the 2002-03 decline stopped on the Dow, while the NAZ made a direct hit on the 900 week. Now here we are in 2009 with the NAZ pushing upside on the daily 900. while the Dow flirts with the daily 500... Here is the 1957 to 1961 chart which shows the above mentioned items with the 1000 MA added to the mix, running just below the 900. Yes, the silly spaghetti works over and over again thru history.... Do you see changing the timeframe as being different from changing the length of the SMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Rationalise, In practise we all use filters when playing those bounces off the 900. For example, - the mkt action, if trending or trading in a range. - considering the bounce area as a zone around the 900d such as where you have labelled it as many small losses so one does not get stopped out unnecessarily. - a bullish bar on the 900d indicating the mkt is going to bounce rather than slice through. etc Good filters will make quite a difference to the math. Yes. I clearly haven't developed that pattern recognition talent, even when trading on paper, with or without stops. In a bounce after a long trend, I can't tell whether the trend will resume, or whether it is the opposite trend beginning, or a range. - It all looks the same to me. Without being able to intuitively determine that, the result nets to zero minus commissions minus spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Sometimes support, sometimes resistance, sometimes blaSSted through. I guess the trick is to recognize early, which one, and when. Well, you know the old saying...resistance becomes shport, and shport becomes resistance... A good grasp of the cycle structure at the time would generally aid in pre-determining such outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 25, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Obama declares National Swine Flu Emergency http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news...25/1025flu.html And sheep start to panic... http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_13631540 We just had an epidemic of H1N1 sweep thru Austin, and this thing was way milder in most cases than just normal flu. There have been only 4 deaths and all except for one were all with folks with other major underlying health conditions. The other was 49 year old man, and nobody really knows if he might have had an underlying condition even though he seemed healthy. In fact I am pretty sure I had it, as I was around my niece who had it and she did develop a mild fever...although I didn't bother to get tested, as it seemed pointless since it was so widespread and all of her classmates who did get tested had H1N1. My only symptom was mild body aches for a few days. Dell medical is already closing the medical tents as the case load is decreasing rapidly. A normal flue season the last few years has been from 0 to 7 deaths, so we'll see if we get a few more as the flu season progresses. http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stori.../19/daily7.html All in all, I see no reason for the hysteria.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Obama declares National Swine Flu Emergency http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news...25/1025flu.html And sheep start to panic... http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_13631540 We just had an epidemic of H1N1 sweep thru Austin, and this thing was way milder in most cases than just normal flu. There have been only 4 deaths and all except for one were all with folks with other major underlying health conditions. The other was 49 year old man, and nobody really knows if he might have had an underlying condition even though he seemed healthy. In fact I am pretty sure I had it, as I was around my niece who had it and she did develop a mild fever...although I didn't bother to get tested, as it seemed pointless since it was so widespread and all of her classmates who did get tested had H1N1. My only symptom was mild body aches for a few days. Dell medical is already closing the medical tents as the case load is decreasing rapidly. A normal flue season the last few years has been from 0 to 7 deaths, so we'll see if we get a few more as the flu season progresses. http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stori.../19/daily7.html All in all, I see no reason for the hysteria.... Here in Calgary, same sort of thing. Nothing special. Normal flu season deaths. Have my annual physical end of November so will decide then if the H1N1 vacine is worse than the flu. Early indications in Scandinavian countries suggest generally the so called cure is worse than the disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Here in Calgary, same sort of thing. Nothing special. Normal flu season deaths. Have my annual physical end of November so will decide then if the H1N1 vacine is worse than the flu.Early indications in Scandinavian countries suggest generally the so called cure is worse than the disease. Each winter, the company I work for gives out free flu shots to whom ever wants one. Seems to me that the ppl that get the shots are not so well, for a few days after. Happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Kuwaiti Politicians Feud Over $21 Billion Consumer Bailout Plan Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Lawmakers in Kuwait, which is richer per capita than Germany, are demanding a government bailout of all consumer loans, reviving a power struggle that’s already shut down the assembly twice in 18 months. At least half of the 50 elected lawmakers say they’ll back a plan for the government to buy all 6 billion dinars ($21 billion) of bank loans taken by Kuwaiti citizens to buy homes, cars, holidays and other purchases, write off interest payments and reschedule the rest. The government opposes the bailout. Parliament convenes on Oct. 27 after a four-month break. “It’s my right as a citizen to enjoy the wealth and resources of my country,” said Essa al-Malki, a 32-year-old teacher of philosophy and psychology, who took out a 15-year 23,000 dinar loan in 2000 and supports the plan. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=afD0wdxQloIM hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Each winter, the company I work for gives out free flu shots to whom ever wants one. Seems to me that the ppl that get the shots are not so well, for a few days after. Happens every year. not sure butt might wanna double check, them might be obedience shots, ta keep busted W-2 wageslaves dancin' fer their dinner without complainin' even though they have no pension and will be gutter-flushed and recycled as soon as convenient for the company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 More charts. ...there won't be any hidin' in those stodgy ol' Industrials, either: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 25, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Yes. I clearly haven't developed that pattern recognition talent, even when trading on paper, with or without stops. In a bounce after a long trend, I can't tell whether the trend will resume, or whether it is the opposite trend beginning, or a range. - It all looks the same to me. Without being able to intuitively determine that, the result nets to zero minus commissions minus spread. Trading any single moving average is going give you many whipsaws in the congestion zones. Again this is due to the two different types of market behavior, compression and expansion. That is why you need to LOOK AT MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES for fine tuning entries and exits. The the 200/500/900 MA give general areas to be on the alert for potential reversals/breakouts/breakdowns. I don't enter the trade until I see the shortest time frames start to give the signal, and then look to see confirmation of the potential new trend at each longer time frame as the turn progresses. So for example, if price is consolidating around a 900 hour MA and the 1 to 5 min charts start to look like they are ready to make some sort of move, you try going in the direction of that move, and as long as they hold, you stay in the trade. Usually within a few hours you will know whether the turn/punch thru is real, with an incredibly small risk exposure if you stop/reverse yourself out when the 5 min setup fails. And if you have timed the entry on the 5 min chart correctly, by using the 1 min to time your entry, your stop out point may actually be at a profit. Just this one filter alone can save tons of whipsaws, and if you do get a whipsaw, the loss is exceptionally small, in relation to the potential trend development from these key pivot areas. And then say you start to turn off the hourly 900 and hit the 5 min resistance/support line, but in this particular instance, it comes after a double bottom/top with divergences on an hourly chart. Would it make sense in this case that the 5 min line might just give way, as the longer time frame may have just put in a turn? And if for some reason, price fails to get thru the 5 min 900 after a few hours of churning, that may be good sign that the move off the hourly is weaker than expected, as once a sold turn off an hourly is made, generally the 5 min 900 should fall shortly thereafter. It's all about the context of where you are in the overall scheme of things.... Why do I feel like the Billy Crystal in City Slickers trying to explain the VCR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Ear Candy In the same genre as the Frontline Warning show, This American Life put together an investigative audio series on AIG, the “rise” of the OTS and failure of credit rating regulators. They point out that the OTS is largely funded by member Banks. Therefore it was in the OTS best interest to cut regulation in order to encourage membership. 2003 photo op with OTS head James “Chainsaw” Gilleran. On a lighter note, check out the TAF First Day stories, which includes the infamous “Squirrel Cop” episode. Absolutely hilarious. Each episode runs about 60 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and, once in a while greatness emerges....to your jickiss, K Wave has just shown the Way. For free, out in the open, and as clear as the bell of infinity. anyway, you need no Sherpas. jickiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambro...nother-century/ The dollar will still be the world’s dominant reserve currency in 2030 Japan is about to go bankrupt. … It will be 246pc in 2014. I think much of Europe is equally sick — Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland, the Baltics, are even sicker if the US were stupid enough to enact the 10-year spending plans projected by the White House — with a deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2019 the country will be ruined. I do not think America has so far lost its senses that it will commit suicide in this fashion. In any case, the bond markets will react long before we get there. They will force a change in policy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Dollar Inflation Adjusted Conversion Factors Huge compendium of factors and charts for dollars from 1774 to 2019. Available in Excel format as well. Forecasts based on OMB and CBO estimates (YMMV). Note: Use IE to view the charts, as they are not “real” html, but MS Word generated… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted October 25, 2009 Report Share Posted October 25, 2009 Fabulous stuff this weekend, K-Wave. Tanks a million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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