Mars Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Doc,..........that's right...but web site proprietors like you are onlya handfull of population.........who else could be blamed for thinking it just another dot com,,,,,piece of crap......................................... google probably never going to "show anybody the money"....... Multiple.......is absurd. This has absolutely nothing to do with earnings or multiples. We all know that. Look at ebay. Look at Amazon. There are millions of small website owners who get income from Google. There are hundreds of millions of people who swear by google for search. There are millions of companies large and small who advertise on Google. Google is a ubiquitous presence on almost every desktop and laptop in the world. They have built a brand name second to none. Any company with millions and millions of faithful users is going to have more than enough of a cult following to keep the stock priced at absurd levels and to drive a mania in the stock at any time. Google may indeed fall flat, but I think that shorting it before having had a few months to see the tape action could be suicidal. Valuation and fundamentals have absolutely nothing to do with it. And betting that the Google IPO will be the catalyst for sending the market in the tank is not a good bet in my view. At least not until we see for sure how it is going to behave once it is free to trade. This is the last stock I'd want to try to be a hero with. What he said. Truthfully, Google is based on a wonderful technology and its inventors deserve to get paid. If people wish to pay $85 or $135 per share that's their problem or delight. I doubt that it will "bring down the market" because the market, as always, is greater than one stock. The dot com bust only brought the market back to where it probably should have been without the dot coms in the first place. But I'm with Doc - wait and see. I have a feeling it will ebb and flow just like every other stock in the mix. If it goes to $5 - well it won't be the first and it probably won't be the last. But at the end of the day the market will still be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Machine-- all well reasoned points as always, and I hope you are right. My thought about Google is just along the lines of "Never underestimate the stupidity of the masses." yobob- I agree about advertising. I experimented with it briefly on Google and saw no benefit. The best advertising, and the only kind that really works in my view, is unsolicited word of mouth. Now go out and spread the Stool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Report: Bank of America to lay off 1,500Raleigh News, NC - 5 minutes ago ... The job cuts will affect nearly every community in which Boston-based Fleet operates, the Boston Globe reported in Wednesday's editions http://newsobserver.com/24hour/business/st...p-9188065c.html Sled - isn't the 1,500 just a downpayment on the 12,500 they promised us right after the merger consumated? Or is this an additional 1,500? Regardless, the BoA business model is very different from Fleet's and we'll also see job quality erosion as well as outright job loss. North Carolina-based Bank of America (BAC: Research, Estimates), the No. 3 U.S. bank, bought FleetBoston Financial Corp., which was based in Boston, for $48 billion on April 1. It plans 12,500 job cuts, or 7 percent of the banks' combined workforce, over two years, with some cuts coming through attrition, reported the Globe. Bank of America is converting Fleet's branches to its own brand name and model, which uses fewer full-time workers per branch, the newspaper said, citing Fleet workers. Maybe all those part-time workers can find a way to work out part-time mortgage payments? As long as they remember to exclude food and energy, I am sure they'll all do just fine! :shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 OIL,,,,,,,,,,,$47.12............up .37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 wooo. Giant gap down on the bond yield at the open. Now trading 4.17 on way to the target of 4.0-4.10. I will update Uncle Buck and Long Bong Hit in about a half hour to see if this gap gets filled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 I keep thinking about the fact that foreign central banks are buying half of all new Treasury offerings. It's mind boggling. Unfathomable. Where would be be without that organized support? How long will they keep it up? And what would cause them to start to withdraw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 You know when bears defend Maina stocks its time to get out of dodge I hear goog was issued @ 55c a share. Now that sounds fare DEATH TO CULT STOCKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 I keep thinking about the fact that foreign central banks are buying half of all new Treasury offerings. It's mind boggling. Unfathomable. Where would be be without that organized support? How long will they keep it up? And what would cause them to start to withdraw? how bout a holy war? poped housing bubble end of mania in stocks no liquidity low interests rates in the end are Bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 yeah but where's the growth potential in GOOG? The exponential growth days of the internet are over. From now on the internet is as subject to real world business pressures as any other business, as Yobob points out. Now if GOOG paid a decent dividend, maybe you could value it's cash flows and see what a fair price was. I doubt they are planning on paying a healthy dividend anytime soon, so they will be priced on "growth". Funny how my and the street's idea of growth has differed widely for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Discussion is of STAGFLATION this morning on CNBS. We're in it right now...and the point of recognition of that fact is close at hand. The next question on people's minds will be "what happens during stagflation?" When they educate themselves as to the meaning of stagflation, we will have a repeat of the Seventies...on the way to recession or worse. There was no talk of it until about a week ago, and now I'm hearing it spoken of more frequently. Nobody is going to ring a bell and proclaim that we are in fact in Stagflation, well, nobody except me... DING DING DING DING DING! Welcome to THAT SEVENTIES SHOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 I keep thinking about the fact that foreign central banks are buying half of all new Treasury offerings. It's mind boggling. Unfathomable. Where would be be without that organized support? How long will they keep it up? And what would cause them to start to withdraw? I think this is an example of the market as an unpredictable, probably non-analyzable, chaotic system that tends to always find a way, especially given the canvial-barkerism of the modern professional set. It's a reason to not get too bearish on stock prices in the long term. Phony optimism has been in a bull market for a long time and it hasn't abated yet. I'm talking about society in general as much as the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Revenue growth ytd 40% So what's your secret, Bob? Your rakish good looks or your down home charm? No doubt my rakish good looks as displayed in my avatar are partly responsible but mostly I think it's my overtly optimistic view of how all things financial, political and ecological are well on their way to being resolved within a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Google will not have the kind of cult following it needs to succeed as a stock...at least not at the time of the IPO. Cult stocks succeed when THE BOYS have a vested interest in gaming the piss out of them (see RIMM, TASR, APOL, etc. as examples). Without the support of THE BOYS, there is none of the gamesmanship that causes cult stocks to go parabolic...namely the perpetual short squeeze game. What we are witnessing is a concerted effort by the Matrix to kill Google at borth, so nobody ever tries to come out without the backing of the major houses again. They want Google to be crushed - or to go back to the drawing board and come out under Goldman's name. We are witness to a smear campaign - and even the SEC is playing along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Doc, someone here posted that foriegners did not participate in the auction the other day...is that normal? Kasreli (bad spelling) at Northern Trust Bank suggested that Foriegners are going to slow thier $2 billion per day in debt purchases significantly in 2005. I have not read anything from him lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 18, 2004 Report Share Posted August 18, 2004 Discussion is of STAGFLATION this morning on CNBS. We're in it right now...and the point of recognition of that fact is close at hand. The next question on people's minds will be "what happens during stagflation?" When they educate themselves as to the meaning of stagflation, we will have a repeat of the Seventies...on the way to recession or worse. There was no talk of it until about a week ago, and now I'm hearing it spoken of more frequently. Nobody is going to ring a bell and proclaim that we are in fact in Stagflation, well, nobody except me... DING DING DING DING DING! Welcome to THAT SEVENTIES SHOW! Stagflation without wage inflation is DOA. It has only gotten as far as it has by the wildly increased borrowing over the last 12 months based on asset appreciation. Asset appreciation is in it's waning days. Besides if it's becoming a buzzword once again, that should warn you that the trend has abouit peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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