simple guy Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Dont know if anyone will read this, but here is my update NDX looks like one of two options to the Simple Guy Option 1 Falls to my cited 975 resistance, ending leg 1 of this superwave 3 down. (5 total waves) Rallies to about 1032 or 1051 (38% or 50% retrace) to end wave 2 Wave 3 begins to 774 or 788 on the NDX from there. So... my plan is to sit tight, hope the gaps fill early in the week. Let the year end mini rally play out to 1051 range.... Then short the piss out of QQQ at 200%, riding her down to the 774-788 levels... new lows. Thats pretty much the way I see it... should be some more moderate downside early next week, and ending by wed or thursday at latest.... year end rally... which will be tepid IMO.... Followed by major downlegs in q1 , the dredded 3rd of a 3rd, of a 3rd wave for bulls... great for bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 SimpleGuy - what about option 2??? Simple minds want to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 SG did you see the question I asked on Fridays IDS? Noticed after you posted you vanished from the list. Here it is....TIA SG Being an ewave maroon I have a question. On Docs SPX and Nazgap index charts is this count correct? I am looking at the totals on the 10-13 cycles halfway down in the anals 1-2-3 up to sideways 1-2-3-4-5 down 1-2-3 up 1-?-?-?-? Tanks Just trying to understand the larger counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 SG, I don't follow the NDX directly. I use the Qs and the numbers I get from their chart. How do your numbers align with the price of the Qs? Are we going up to $30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 I use this chart to get some understanding of volitility, trading range, and direction. Here is a shorter-term chart that shows how tight it is now - Looks to me like we are due for a ramp in the index fund to hold up the NASTY. Doc. bless his evil heart, said something about this in his anals with the rebalance. That "rebalance" should show up with a stronger (lower number) trend line. Look at the 200 and 50 DMA. There is a convergence. I don't see too much room for a big down just at this point. 3 things might have to happen for da boyz to pull one off next week - some spike in the dollar, yields up, and, of course, some FEED must be forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 NDX: 50% retrace of the october rally is at 976, lows for nov1 and nov11 are at the same level, SMA100 is at 964, that level around 975 should be support, they can start a little upmkove from there. Dollar: usd/jpy now at 120.50 has space to 119.50, from there sharp bounce can be expected, eur/usd could test fridays highs on monday, but lower 1.03 level should be resistance. for me it looks like monday and maybe tuesday down, then upmove, they wont drop S&P below 872. will focus more on forex, much much much more money is to be made in forex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Think it will break that blue support line? Hmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 yes that line is very likely to fall, but it is no powerfull line, not steep enough, no 45 degrees, once a 45 degrees line which was tested 6,7 or more times, breaks, then you can lokk out below, but that one is only good to search for its next support level and that one is around 975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 another thing: 1.0313 is the 50% retracement of the monster downmove in eur/usd from oct 1998 to oct 2000. A 50% retrscement wont be broken by the first attempt. Dollar can make an upmove form tuesday/wednesday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Thank you SG. I do like to know what you are thinking and doing. I pay attention to your posts on IDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Who doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Who doesn't? ? Hey Doc, O.T. Since you are on the board, I mentioned this at the end of IDS yesterday but, I want to mention it again to thank you and for the benefit of people not subscribing to the Anals. Thursday morning, seeing what the futures were doing before the stock markets opened, I set up a long (for a little scalping) before I left for work. I did not check the morning Anals before setting it up. As soon as I got to the office, I checked the situation which for about 10 minutes or so looked OK. Then, I checked the Anal, then I checked back to the market. I realized I had done a very dumb move. Thanks to your line projection drawing, I saw a window out in the 10:30ish area and did get out somewhere between 10:30 and 11 a very minor loss. Had I kept it in play, as the day went on, it would have been much worse. Exactly as the further projection of the line drawing had indicated. Had I looked at the morning Anals first, I would have seen not to do what I did but, seeing what you did project, I saw when to correct the bad and did. I learned a lesson (I hope!). Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Tanks Mousey! I like to hear stories like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Dont know if anyone will read this, but here is my update Bwahahahahahahahahahahah ROFLMAZOFF Not only a great trader but a dry sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 support in a bear market? No such thing. Especially not that soon after a major sentiment and technical top on Dec 2. Other than lame brief intervention, who's left to support this turd? The hedge funds were all forced to cover off those Oct 9th lows, Joe Six is NOT in the game anymore, and every speculator has already jumped on and is fully loaded - bless their hearts. That line will be busted, bruised and battered come Monday, Tuesday at the latest - its in the cycles and ewaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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