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Mark to Market Memorial Forum 4/21/03


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TE, you meant fokkerz I added some more today to my now considerable put position. I mean, what else is there to do?

 

 

I was going to type that but, didn't want to dis you GF.

 

This is the new and improved end. (i got my arse well tuned to this shite that has been comming out of this market)

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Tchai:

 

Wow. That's what we need. Mandatory implants for all women, thanks to cheap silicon bags from Brazil.

 

Musiq:

 

Ord has nailed every bottom and every top since the July lows. He failed to call last year's March Madness top, thought it was only an intermediate top and suggested going long on a pullback. But he quickly stopped out.

 

He also failed to call the decline from the May, June, and July tops in 2001.

 

I think he's better at picking bottoms than tops.

 

........

 

By the way, Lance Lewis issued a rather stern warning. He is increasingly alarmed at the new highs in the Asian Exotica and the mortgage companies. He thinks we might be in a 1999-style blowoff if we fail to move down immediately.

 

He's also worried that the CPC and VXN warnings are being ignored, and a major frenzy might be developing, causing a huge flood of new cash into the market from the mortgage bubble.

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Bubble no more

Investors' flagging interest in the Nasdaq means the last vestiges of speculation are finally gone.

April 21, 2003: 4:49 PM EDT

By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

 

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It took a long time, but it looks like investors may have finally thrown in the towel on hoping the Nasdaq's good old days return. Which means that there could actually be better days ahead.

 

Even though the Nasdaq Composite has been by far the best performer of the major indexes -- not just since the October lows, but going all the way back to late last April -- investor interest in Nasdaq stocks has shriveled up. In the first quarter of this year average daily volume on the Nasdaq stock market was down a whopping 19 percent from the first quarter of 2002.

 

"This low volume is exactly what the doctor ordered," said Raymond James chief market anal cyst Ralph Bloch. "It's telling you that a great deal of the speculation has been taken out of the market."

. . .

A tamer Vixen

The drop in Nasdaq volume isn't the only sign that speculation has been wrung out of the market, points out Miller Tabak chief technical anal cyst Phil Roth. He's been looking at the Nasdaq 100 volatility index, more commonly known as -- because its symbol is "VXN" -- the "Vixen."

 

The Vixen is a close cousin to the S&P 100 volatility index, or "Vix". Both the Vix and the Vixen measure the implied volatility -- how volatile investors in the options arena think the market is going to be -- of their respective underlying indexes.

 

The Vixen has, since its launch in 2001, always been much higher than the Vix, but lately it has come down significantly. Unlike a drop in the Vix, which often suggests complacence among investors, Roth thinks the Vixen is falling because there is simply less interest in the Nasdaq in the options arena. That's made options cheaper and, because it is derived from options prices, lowered the level of the Vixen.

 

"That shows a significant drop in speculative interest," said Roth.

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I still get the odd feeling the top is not in.Still in cash waiting to enter short.If I miss out,so be it.

 

I still expect ge to hit 30,intc to hit 20 before we head down.I expect the rumor rallies to commence again(saddam caught,easter bunny captured,bin laden buying qqq calls...etc).

 

Too many games going on,anything can happen.vphm rallied 23% intraday on sars rumors and company is worthless.there will be hell to pay for trading this garbage.....all in good time.

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Does anyone have a link or even a phone number to get the Rydex data directly from Rydex? I hate waiting for Decisionpoint to update. I used to have the phone number, but I lost it. I'd like to keep an eye on the ratio of RYTPX to RYTNX -- looking at the from this spreadsheet:

 

http://www.sentimentalmarkets.com/rydex.xls

 

it seems to have been a decent caller of tops/bottoms. Note how it was at the October lows.

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Does anyone have a link or even a phone number to get the Rydex data directly from Rydex? I hate waiting for Decisionpoint to update. I used to have the phone number, but I lost it. I'd like to keep an eye on the ratio of RYTPX to RYTNX -- looking at the from this spreadsheet:

 

http://www.sentimentalmarkets.com/rydex.xls

 

it seems to have been a decent caller of tops/bottoms. Note how it was at the October lows.

RYDEX Daily NAVs

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Jorma ,

Also sold bearx, but more recently than you when another stoolie made a similar comment and it was performing poorly. What happened to it?

Will play this next downturn with several of the profund bear funds. Can any one suggest other bear funds to look at ? thanks.

 

Madame WH

I really enjoyed your vix discussion from this weekend M2M.

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