riff Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 This isn't intended to be a joke, but maybe it is (on me). Looking casually at XLNX today (I actually had to concentrate on work today so could not trade -- perhaps fortunately for me) -- it was making wild swings up and down. Why not just buy some when it seems to have hit a reversal and everything is heading up, and in the short account, short some when it gets reasonably far up, knowing that it will probably go further up. Sell the long when it rolls over, sell the short (hopefully below entry) when it seems to bottom and turn up. -- with these wildly volatile stocks, which fluctuate so much within a wide range, if I get decent entries, why would this be a bad strategy? In other words, same principle as a straddle but not getting killed with the spread getting in and out for daytrades. Be gentle, it's my first time...... Hey drano.... I've often wondered the same. especially in a a trading range. buy some short some and close out whichever becomes profitable..... the wait until the other becomes profitable...... It is not an efficient use of capital.... but at least you would always have a winning position...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Scary stuff ....went back and looked at Zorans chart for the spx last weekend... he predicted the S$P move this week to a tee...he,he,he ....check out where he thinks we go from here....Doc short, zoran short, now just have to see how Ikes summation indexes and market internals look...still stalking....PS, stoolies should be all over AMGN, gap at 38 needs to fill before it see SG's 80. Zoran's count isn't a valid ewave count, and he'll be proved very wrong early next week IMO. Should see a very weak early Monday morning, but we should then get once last rally for a final fifth wave to complete an inverted expanded flat off the 2/13 lows. See link for details...... eeclyyay[d20030226,20030411][pc20!c50!c200][vc60][ilb14!lm12!lp14,3,3][J11217489,Y]&listNum=3]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?...89,Y]&listNum=3 Is it better to have the wrong count with the right prediction, or the right count with the wrong prediction? Is it not better to be lucky than good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Well here in North San Diego County the Great Mortgage Credit Bubble of the 21st centurty continues unabated. Median home prices for resale homes $372K in March, up from a record $359K in Feburary and up 21% from March, 2002. A double in only 5 years. A couple of fun statistics. The median payment (10% down) on a San Diego County home divided by the CPI has hit a 14 year high of 11.4 (using a 6.5% interest rate on median house 360K = $2,047/180). This ratio is usually in the 8-10 range (20 yr. ave. of 9.4) , with 1996 as the low (7.32 or $1,149 payment on $174K house at 8% divided by CPI of 157), so unless we're in a new era, this ratio will move down, either via lower interest rates, increased interest-only loans, easier credit, lower prices or higher CPI readings. Another ratio, Median SD home/Nasdaq, continues to rise, currently at 273 (372,000/1360). 1983 103K/275 = 375 1984 104K/250 = 416 1985 112K/300 = 373 1986 123K/350 = 351 1987 134K/350 = 383 1988 153K/375 = 408 1989 182K/400 = 455 1990 183K/400= 457 highest ratio in last 20 years 1991 188K/500= 376 1992 183K/600= 305 1993 177K/700= 253 1994 176K/750= 235 1995 172K/900= 191 1996 174K/1150= 151 1997 185K/1450= 128 1998 207K/2000=103 1999 232K/3200=72 2000 269K/3600=75 March 2000: 236K/5132 = 46, all time low 2001 294K/2000= 147 2002 345K/1500=230 Current ratio of 273 So, in summary if we get a ratio of near 400, will be a great time to buy tech stocks and sell real estate (assuming these ratios hold in your area) A couple of possibilities. Nasdaq 950 area is a fibonacci target on a number of weekly structures. Nasdaq 700 area is the weekly head/shoulder target. Assuming SD home prices are around $390K later this fall, then 390,000/950 = 410 Assuming SD home prices drop with deflation to $300K, crushing the Nasdaq to 700 gives you a ratio of 428. Assuming the Nasdaq flutters around 1300 for 2 years and SD real estate goes up 20%/year figures out to be $536K/1300 = 412 (wishful thinking on my part, but if this happens I will hedge the entire value of my home with CountrySlide and FantasyMae PUTS!! Amazingly enough, this real estate frenzy just may well continue here is SoCal. Unemployment rates are tame. The rest of the country has slowed down considerably. SF Bay area seeing only 1-4% growth. Other large metro areas the same (Portland, Seattle, Denver, NY). Nowhere in the country are prizes going parabolic as they are here in SoCal, and especially San Diego and Orange Counties. And to think, when my wife and I bought our first home here in 1997, we factored in an appreciation assumption of, drum roll please..... ZERO % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 thanks mark This market is untradeable unless you have tons of cash to back up your mistakes.Too many games being played and i don't want to get caught on the wrong side.Everything and everyone has become a hedge fund which will no doubt end in a catastrophic collapse in the near future.stocks with pe's of 300 go up and stocks with pe's of 4 go down. just watching until the madness ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Excellent contribution, scottcardiff. Glad to see you still here. I wondered if you got blown out last December. Manhattan Beach is no different. 6-unit apartment buildings selling at 19x gross rents, over $350,000 a unit for something that rents for $1,500/mo. Prices here are also going parabolic. New spec homes going up everywhere. Builders desperate to get lots. Most real estate brokers have now become "builders", finding seed money to do deals is a no brainer. Tough part is finding an available "lot" for less than $800,000. Credit continues to run rampant. Just had a client get an interest-only $1 million mortgage at LIBOR + 70 b.p., thats about 2.9%. His monthly payment is only $2,300/mo. He makes about $70,000 a year. Says he's not worried about the monthly adjustable rate, since his house is expected to appreciate faster than short term interest rates. Imagine that. LIBOR spirals upwards out of control when inflation and a busted dollar hit, yet he thinks his house price will go parabolic. Consumer credit is out of control. New cars purchased everywhere. Three brand new dealers just went up in the last 2 months. Check out the brand new Ford and Chevy dealers at the 405 and Rosecrans next time you are passing through. Brand new Mercedes dealer going up as I speak. I got 5 blank credit card checks this week. My credit limits have been raised to over $40,000 on each card. I think I should max out each card and buy gold with the proceeds. Might as well do my own "spread trade" speculation, using borrowed Matrix currency and buy real money. Check out Noland's piece tonight. He sees no end in sight. I'm looking at going long on CFC or NCEN if they break off to the upside from their consolidations. Nothing to keep these going to $100 and $50/share. Why not?? If I'm wrong, then Al Green's "Night of the Living Dead" Futures Ramp will surely bail me out if I make a mistake. Its going to be a spectacle to see this Pyramid collapse. As long as credit spreads stay low, then we are safe for now. But if they start creeping up, then look out. Now, back to my Asian Exotica hired for the evening festivities..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Credit continues to run rampant. Just had a client get an interest-only $1 million mortgage at LIBOR + 70 b.p., thats about 2.9%. His monthly payment is only $2,300/mo. He makes about $70,000 a year. Says he's not worried about the monthly adjustable rate, since his house is expected to appreciate faster than short term interest rates. that is absolutely insane!!!! im assuming those $800,000 lots are FULL LOTS - all of 2,700 SF (30'x90')? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 I think the world is trying to do everything it can to keep the USD high. ?If you see it keep falling, more countries will start pegging their currencies to it so that they all fall at the same rate. There is no economy in the world that could withstand the US Consumer taken away from them by rising import prices in the US. ?However that is exactly what we need and if market forces were able to work the USD would fall, import prices would rise, US industry would pick up because they could make money competing with imports. A strong dollar reflects a strong economy. A weak dollar reflects a weak economy. No country has ever been able to devalue it's way to greater prosperity. The U.S consumer trades over valued paper for cheap foreign goods and labor. Who really, would suffer more if that trade ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BEARDRECH Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 "US industry would pick up because they could make money competing with imports". Not unless the US is prepared to create massive company towns and start using prison labor like China... It's game over but no one will believe it until the "just think positive religion" collapses when the reality of the situation can't be covered up anymore... Everything is being stage managed at this point... hyper you always make me think--again im inspired to express the following--to the oriental the united states markets are a three card monty game wuth the search for the card or pea or whatever ,endlessly fascinating to the inscrewable oriental mind--do you rember the flimsy table set up in america displaying real estate like Rockfeller center and so forth resulting in Japan getting an archmidean moon moving sized lever up their financial rectum?? Well i think the new shell game weare playing is to suck china into investing trillions in all of the old technolgies of the world,like recycling baby diapers and turning smegma into unedible dairy products etc-- While we plunge,momentarily into a industrial sahara of our own making---until like ever-resilient america always does,we wake up and begin to intensify the etherialization of our industrial base--such as Car factories manned by 3 people capable of turning out thousands of units a day--nanotech,those billions of little scorcerers apprentices eating sclerotic matrial,altering the landscape and purifying the water,solar tech which will nullify all of the gas exuding antiquated industrial drecherei so feverishly exploited by our chinese brothers who like moths to the flame will have an equally wonderful time digging ithemselves out of the instant rust belt shitpile while wwe will, with nervous merriment wipe the financial piles of ponzified shit off of our furrowed brows,and get to work,and like always.we will blooow them out of the water-- but like all utopian visions theres a dystopian aspect to all of the powerful technology:and that is By the time the next industrial wave of innovation is through so indolent will our unnecesary worker population become with their two hour workdays and 3 month twice a year holidays that they will have evolved into a form resembling phatbubbles avatar-at that phase of our developement god will surprise us by hurling an asteroid twice the size of of montivideo uruguay, made up of material like krispy kream pastries,thus inoculating us with lethal doses of diabeteic inducucing material-- On that day i will go short the market bdrech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Amazingly enough, this real estate frenzy just may well continue here in SoCal. I believe it will. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that Mark will be writing about mortgage excesses ten years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 hyper you always make me think--again im inspired to express ?the united states markets are a three card monty game ? Enlightenment is sometimes found in the most amazing places! I took the liberty of editing, for the sake of brevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 "US industry would pick up because they could make money competing with imports". Not unless the US is prepared to create massive company towns and start using prison labor like China... It's game over but no one will believe it until the "just think positive religion" collapses when the reality of the situation can't be covered up anymore... Never heard of protectionism? Once real unemployment goes over 20% because China is cheaper, any politician in favour of free trade will be voted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Good Observation by my fellow Stoolies..........................To Add to it......................... Areas like SoCal and NYC will easily be the last to to have their bubble burst......................... Every rich idiot from Montana to Maine or abroad etc., etc., whether with old money or new, wants to have a place there......................... The high end market lends itself to such transients.......................... As such, demand for such frivolity will always be higher in these markets than most........................... Case in point, just about every high-end pro-athelete in Pittsburgh owns 3 homes.................. One in their local hometown, One in Pittsburgh and One on the beachfront in CA............................. This example is of Jerome Bettis..................Detroit, Piitsburgh and Malibu..................but there are countless others......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Attention Riverboaters: Stop it with the jokes!!! I break my neck for you guys to paint a picture of The Wall Struck Horror Show, and all you can do is pass along some jokes? Are you guys deaf and dumb to the size, scope, and the complexity of the Paper Pyramid such that it bears no discussion? What happened to Rog and london?? What happened to the intelligent investment bankers who could shed some light on the madness? Where is the stoolie whose wife works in the Structured Finance Catacombs? All we have left here is a bunch of Riverboating Motion Chasers, whose only interest is to tailhook with the Robots? You guys are a bunch of degenerates!!! Shame on you!! FOKKER: Please move these jokes to LOB..... Half of all stoolies at least know to their core that the Credit Bubble and the Paper Pyramid is the correct way to understand the current financial and economic reality. We read Noland and get all the stories and anecdotes about all the wretched excess and we have been all over it like stink on stool since forever and we wail and gnash our teeth about it from time to time which is all well and good but making a trading decision on the whole thing is fruitless. Noland addressed the point last week. It's fun to watch like a good horror flick and we know it has to end badly sometime but eventually one starts feeling like a crackpot of a fool trying to predict that the disaster is upon us. The longer the crackup is pushed back the more like a fool or a crackpot I feel. Missing the forensic ramp jobs partly out of principal and partly out of bearish stubborness and partly out of vanity (suppose the Oct. or March rallies failed and I stayed short for the big one) leads to a certain type of fatalism and or exhaustion. Countrywides numbers are to us like a visit to the funhouse and the authors of the mess should be in a freak show, except that the executives and the board, the authors, are plugged into the financial/political establishment and their heirs are probably already taken care of for generations to come since there will no longer be any inheretence taxes. So what's left to do but tell some jokes. No matter how it turns out the jokes on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howl Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Scary stuff ....went back and looked at Zorans chart for the spx last weekend... he predicted the S$P move this week to a tee...he,he,he ....check out where he thinks we go from here....Doc short, zoran short, now just have to see how Ikes summation indexes and market internals look...still stalking.... A triangle in wave 2. That is not very Elliott! And the guys at elliottwave.com are probably seeing a sequence of ones and twos. I can't blame them. The declines into the october and march lows look impulsive. I also think the next move is down. But after that, the markets will probably bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Jorma: You are right. We are the fools. We are the jerkoffs. Sitting around, waiting for the implosion that never comes, while the rest of the planet is Riverboating their way to riches. The joke is definitely on us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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