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Mark?s Market Commentary ? April 4, 2003

 

Everybody talks about the ?smart money?, aka pension funds and mutual funds. Of course, these guys are the ones squandering your retirement money by allocating more money to stocks as they go lower, and doubling down on death stars in order to buy ?cheap? stocks.

 

Can you blame them?

 

After all, how many times have you seen blown up stocks stage miraculous recoveries and turnarounds? Every fund manager wishes they had bet the farm on AMR at $1.80 to ride it up to $4.00 for a 300% gain.

 

So many home runs to be had.

 

So many blown chances to throw that ?Hail Mary? pass in order to ?catch up?.

 

So many laughing at the old school diversification techniques when giant bets can be made on one to three positions only.

 

Today?s The Wall Struck Journal profiles this activity among several fund managers trying to game a HealthSouth turnaround:

 

?HealthSouth Debacle Hits Fidelity?

 

?HealthSouth?s shocks are reverberating through some big-name mutual fund portfolios. Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, run by HeatMapper Joel Tillinghast, held a 9% stake in the company at the time of the Healthsouth March 19 filing. Other big funds holding large positions in the shares included Vanguard Health Care Fund, Strong Opportunity Fund, Pimco PEA Renaissance Fund, Wellington Management, and Federated Kaufman Fund.?

 

After the four-day trading halt, the stock re-opened at 12 cents, and most of the funds finally sold after the collapse. Except $3.3 billion Federated Kaufmann Fund, which is still holding 2.5 million shares, ?waiting for a pop?.

 

Morningstar anal cyst Laura Lutton said: ?Tillinghast is one of the industry?s best managers. If he can?t get it right, it would be difficult for any manager to get it right.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

Tillinghast, the former 5-time Nintendo 64 champion, is legendary for his lightening quick speed at grabbing the psycho screamers on the PreMarket HeatMap. He is also a champion bottom picker, often grabbing stocks on the turn faster than his peers. However, Tillinghast now has competition. Millions of eyeballs gaming the same information in real time with 1-second executions has ?leveled the playing field?, making it more difficult to be the lead Wildebeast in the Animal Planet Herd. Past success has also caused Tillinghast to make even larger bets on the most risky positions, knowing that the Al Green Repo Blast is likely to bail him out of even the worst mistakes. His trading difficulties have been compounded by the fact that his Estee Lauder supermodel girlfriend has recently been hanging around the Structured Finance division over at Goldman Sachs, where spectacular fortunes are being made. Tillinghast is attempting to prove that his HeatMapping prowess can easily meet or exceed the pro-forma salaries and bonuses over at Structured Finance.

 

Nothing unusual about the market action today. Al Green came in with a $15 billion Repo Blast, which sent stocks screaming to the upside after lunchtime. As usual, the markets were sent reeling once the 200-day failed to breach. I?m not sure what caused the selloff. Maybe Saddam was spotted at that Syrian resort, seducing Andrea Mitchell who was attempting an interview. Al Green got wind of this and had to suddenly leave the Wizard of Oz chamber and leave the Repo Jamming levers unattended.

 

What will happen tomorrow? Nobody knows. Baghdad will probably be steamrolled, and we?ll have the entire country to ourselves. Then the Dow will launch 500 points on 3 billion shares of volume, and oil will fall to $18/barrel. Or maybe our troops will roll into Baghdad with no resistance, and attempt to get an MTV Spring Break party going. Right around the time the Tropicana belly dancers show up, a Bio Cloud appears rendering the entire military impotent for life, permanently infected with SASD (Sudden Acute Sexual Dysfunction.) In that case, the Dow will plunge 500 points, because everyone knows that Saddam has the key ingredient to crashing and ending the longest, wildest, greatest MTV Spring Break of all time.

 

Riverboaters beware.

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Not sure what happened?

 

How about we stopped just pennies shy of my .786 fibo retrace line? Then we reversed into a Wave 2 pattern....

 

And we will hit 26.19 or 25.97 to end wave 2 more than likely....

 

And then we will rocket launch up to 28.58 to 29.00 area by Monday?

 

PPT?? Nope... E waves??? Yep...

 

See y'all tomorrow... remaining 200% dong.... getting ready to cover within 48 hours trading time

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"...making it more difficult to be the lead Wildebeast in the Animal Planet Herd."

 

I don't know why, but I found this to be extremely funny! Thanks for the humor Mark, I needed a good laugh today.

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Once the Iraq war is over there is nothing left on which to focus but absolutely horrible conditions which have become worse during Mr Marke's MTV Spring break from reality.

 

...time to go back to school and exams :P

 

Too soon to tell right now but the trading range environment may be expanding...the 9 month siesta of bullish complacency is soon to be over.

 

LOB. :grin:

post-7-1049406309.gif

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If we are in an C wave Wave three finished and we are in wave four, down to 850ish or lower before wave 5 up.MHO

 

currently 40% short. Sold all longs when the market was positive.

 

 

This move could just as easily be a triangle and we are finishing the E wave.

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Right around the time the Tropicana belly dancers show up, a Bio Cloud appears rendering the entire military impotent for life, permanently infected with SASD (Sudden Acute Sexual Dysfunction.)  In that case, the Dow will plunge 500 points, because everyone knows that Saddam has the key ingredient to crashing and ending the longest, wildest, greatest MTV Spring Break of all time.

 

Riverboaters beware.

Have to imagine that someone that has only one revolver with three bullets in the chamber isn't going to fire the thing until their enemy is 10 feet away......

 

No E-waves can predict that outcome.

 

I can only pray it doesn't happen.

 

2 minute warning about to go off,...crunch time folks.

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Guest jrmfl
Not sure what happened?

 

How about we stopped just pennies shy of my .786 fibo retrace line? Then we reversed into a Wave 2 pattern....

 

And we will hit 26.19 or 25.97 to end wave 2 more than likely....

 

And then we will rocket launch up to 28.58 to 29.00 area by Monday?

 

PPT?? Nope... E waves??? Yep...

 

See y'all tomorrow... remaining 200% dong.... getting ready to cover within 48 hours trading time

the great thing about your waves... you always have an alternate to bail your butt out.

 

good for you, excuses are a dime a dozen, reason costs a bundle.

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Mark, forgot to congratulate you on your "I Dare You" shortfolio. 9% in six months, ~18% annualized is not shabby. A realistic return indeed. Sure beats the pants off those other hosers with steep negative returns.

 

Pay-tience pays. :P

 

I suspect right after MTV Spring break party we'll be having a Pandora's Box opening party....and soon. :grin:

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jrmfl Posted on Apr 3 2003, 04:52 PM

 

The great thing about your waves... you always have an alternate to bail your butt out.

 

good for you, excuses are a dime a dozen, reason costs a bundle.

 

 

Hey, jrmfl

 

Sounds like sour grapes to me. I don't see you posting your trades here day in and day out.

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jrmfl:

 

And Everyone Else:

 

Unfortunately, the rest of the Avatar is classified. She insisted on a partial shot only and wanted to remain anonymous. Out of fear of being cut and pasted into some porno site.

 

I agreed to keep the rest private.

 

Sorry......

 

Doc doesn't need any lawsuits. I don't need any trouble next time I go to Hawaii...

 

Pile:

 

That's a good projection on the SPX. I sense that the market is way too far extended beyond reality, even further beyond last year's March Madness.

 

Anyone who wants to be short should start adding positions now. The VXN finally reversed today.

 

As for me, I'm staying out until we get rolling to the downside around mid-month.

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Mark:

 

Great to have you back and in top form. Nice to see those island ladies put your head right. I was out in West Palm last weekend on a first date with a mondo-mammaried exotic blonde who sells $5 million condos for a living. She said that things have slowed considerably, and hopes to start selling a building where the units are only $3 million each, as they will move better.

 

She also told me that her stock portfolio was down 50% and that she was planning to sit tight, since she wasn't going to need the money for 30 years.

 

You know, there comes a moment in every man's life where he has to decide between getting laid and being right. Like a fool, I chose to set her straight about the economy and her borker and the future of her real estate career.

 

For any of you who find yourselves in the same position in the future...here's a little advice. Being right about the market is NOT more important than getting laid. The future price of HD or INTC is NOT more important than a really satisfying night of lust. Tell her to dump her borker and her stocks AFTER you're done with her.

 

Never forget that.

 

Plunger

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