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Hanging by a thread


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Repeat of post from IDS this afternoon.

 

Outta here for a few days to go south and play golf. Am all in cash. Might miss a doozy up or down, but feel clueless to predict the direction and have finally learned to sit it out when this is the case.

 

Heard today from fellow Stoolie Bearwithme. Turns out he's from Boston also (in fact, he lives in the town next to me). We'd like to try to assemble Boston Stoolies for a meeting similar to Mousey Dung's shindig in NYC last month.

 

If you're interested, please PM me. No details yet as to when or where we meet, will work something out depending on response.

 

I guess our acronym would be BADASS (Boston Area Division of the Association of Short Sellers)?

 

:grin:

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Yes, we named a number of chapters a few weeks back. Boston is BADASS but it's the Boston Area Division of the American Society of Shortsellers. other areas of Massachusetts are MASSASS.

 

The Philly area is PADELNMAASS, for Pennsylvania Delaware New Jersey Maryland chapter.

 

Houston-Galveton is HOUSGALASS.

 

Miami is, of course - MIASS

 

Illinois and Indiana - ILLINASS

 

You get the idea.

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Cruise Industry Stocks:

 

SARS is still a major and growing story - and would be huge news if not for the war. Schools in Singapor and China are being closed to prevent its spread. The airline stocks are being somewhat protected from iminent demise by a purported government bail out - but the cruise lines are just twisting in the wind... all on their own (not even US companies).

 

We're still in the tail end of their peak booking season for the year (so you can guess how that's going), they've had to give up on their cancellation policy (which removes the buffer that they enjoyed over the hotel industry when 9/11 hit), older Americans are showing the most spending restraint, cruisers in general are a safety conscious lot, pricing power is totally absent, new capacity is still being launched, we've just recently witnessed one contagious virus aboard cruise ships - and here comes another on the horizon, travel is screeching to a hault...oh, and did I mention the threat of terrorism.

 

CCL is teed-up after last weeks squeeze, having blown out the bottom of the Bollinger Band and the top of the Bollinger Band all within seven trading days. Don't take my word for it - just pointing it out. You might want to look at a chart.

 

Plunger

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The rumours of the bears demise are greatly exaggerated

 

That said... there are times when bull cycles within the bear can rear their ugly heads... unless you ride the tide and dont fight the tape

 

SG fully expects a good downleg within the next 2-3 weeks range, but not before a down up down completes, then a final up

 

In English. We did a major A wave up into last Friday

 

B wave is made up of 3 waves, Down, up, Down....

 

We did a down on Monday, and a SWUP on Tue-Wed....

 

SG now looking for the final down to complete the 3 wave corrective move.

 

C wave UP should follow and my target is 28.35 on the Q's, 1470 ish on NAS

 

Plans.... sitting in cash since Tue night with a Dong profit from Monday morning.

 

Patiently waiting an entry point to go Dong for the move into Bradley top on April 2, plus minus a few days.

 

See ya on IDS tomorrow.... also, read my SG Waves thread if you havent... this AM I talk about a running 4th wave for E wave larger count.... this is important to understand....

 

Cheers

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MoGauge Subsides 3/26/03

 

The all important MoGauge, which monitors the fuel for the economy and the markets is out and it came down a little. But are the GSE's still monetizing the new mortgages? They may not be. If not, game over.

 

The top window is now open for business. Doc is by no means convinced, as some are, that an extension of the rally is inevitable. If there is to be another upleg, it will not come for weeks, barring something unpredictable, like getting Sodamn or Oslimy.

 

Doc looks at the MoGauge in depth, chronicles the short and intermediate term market cycles, and tells us where this basket case is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

 

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta

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Doc, you better fix that fiddle, the tune is changing too much...heh heh

 

SG Waves thread tonight has a new chart freshly annotated for your pleasure... head on over and read where SG sees the NASDAQ going near term... FWIW

 

YOU can find the link on the left side column on this page...

 

Cheers

 

Hint... Down near term... but then what?

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well, we have an EWave diagnosis, and it isn't even from a Doc - orizzit if he's a PERFESSURRrrrr?

 

The same attending physician said he MISS>>>diagnosed market action about a week or two ago, didn't he? Or is HRFF miss>>STEAKun?

 

Is he correct this time?

 

Let's just see if we GET this "final leg up", so widely anticipated.

 

Lettuce c if we get that turn UP in April under the "Bradley" model.

 

HRFF will tangentially ASScribe his doubts about both prognostications to a war which is being very sanitized FUR American consumption. See war thread FUR more, later.

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