Wile E. Coyote And The Dust Cloud

[PileDriver]

Well put Bearbones.

 

The short term is truely nothing but idiocy and a crap-shoot (case in point, last week), that's why I don't trade short term instruments that force me to be a short term chaser.

 

I wait for sentiment orgy highs to be hit then add bearish positions, step back and forget about it (did it Dec 4, Jan 23, and this morning)

 

Its amazing how high and quickly greed/optimism rises right before the market hits major bear market resistance lines. True sign of a buying panic.

 

Exact inverse of the sharp selling panics (corrections) that came out-of-the-blue and had everyoe believing it would continue lower right when it was at or still well above major bull market support.

 

In a bear you position short the buying panics.

In a bull you position buy the selling panics.

[Guest]

Buddah:

 

Ditto!

 

If you had traded the news last week and ignored the technicals, you'd have made money on the "Quick War" bet.

 

Same goes for this week, and I'm not expecting any good news in the next three or four days. It is convenient that the technicals correspond with the news however.

 

By the way...wasn't there a worldwide pandemic brewing among the Asian Exotica a week ago? Daily fear conferences at the CDC as I recall. I guess GW put the lid on that news until we get this war behind us, since the markets really can't handle the bursting of the housing bubble, an ugly war, and a pandemic all at the same time.

 

Don't listen to me...I caught the trifecta of falling knives today...shorted AMAT, EXPE and AMZN. Call me crazy, but somehow I have a hard time believing that EXPE warrants a 104 PE at a time when the airlines are racing to go out of business.

 

If you're going to be stupid...do it in a big way!

 

Plunger

[simple guy]

SG was 5 pennies off the Q's top

 

SG also expected downside B wave

 

SG went long at 26.25 today, for a BRIEF period, I havent closed it out yet... its on Velocity fund

 

SG believes as stated premarket we would see an A B C downward corrective 3 wave move.

 

A wave should end around 25.91 on Q's... we got within 6 cents. That would be 38% retrace

 

B wave would kick in to fill some gaps up 1390 plus on NAS

 

C wave back down to 25.50 range on Q's...

 

Then we roll back up over several days into the C wave top...

 

So... SG sees today as light volume pullback, a bit more to go... then a move up for B, then a final move down for C by Wednesday intra-day.

 

Thur Fri are up, into the March quarter end tape paint jam job and Bradley Turn window as well....

 

8 day rally, 3 day corrective... 5 day rally to finish up.... into APril 2 Bradley Turn

 

What do I know??

[Goldmember]

Simple Guy, yes, I like it. There could still be some weak in the morning tomorrow, but I do see some up for a day or so and then a couple of days down. Time duration of those down days could be limited by the intensity of the down move. Fast and furious down Wednesday and into Thursday would mean going dong at Thursday's close for Friday's up, a sure thing paint the tape day.

 

Then again, as Buddha says, there is a whole lot of war noise going on, though I still expect a reasonable conforming to the charts.

[ShamPoo]

Its all about the War imo. Market down today not because of a technical 'resistance' level or a line on some odd chart. Market down because helicopters were downed and Iraqis are fighting back and oil has not been secured. Can you imagine if it had been a route over the weekend with mass surrenders how big the gap up would have been? What 300 points? How about if the Sodomizer had been assasinated or split town?  Gaming this is gaming the War, no more,no less. take care Riverboaters, I wouldn't delude myself putting much stock in TA until the smoke clears. Hubris is the height of folly.

Sorry Buddha, I agree with you 100 percent. In most circumstances, news is definitely noise. But in the case of war and this war specifically, news is overpowering. It may be delusional to believe that anyone's typical indicators will work during this type of event. Bulls are hoping that we find evidence of chemical weapons soon. That's bullish? If Barbara Bush is seen dancing with Saddam Hussein's head on a platter, that will be considered bullish. It may be a long time before typical indicators resume their former usability.

[Rubadub]

LongOnUr

 

Though I kid around and push buttons occasionally,

I will tell you this and you can bank on it:

 

This is an extremely dangerous market that can wipe

an overly aggressive trader out in one day.

 

Most of the time I ignore news, but this is one of the

times I don't.

 

Remember what the mkt did around the 9/11 attack.

How about Pearl Harbor.

 

Currently I am long some IBM and short CYMI and KSS.

 

I have cut way back. IBM has held up very well since

it advanced from the summer lows to its present level.

If any stock in the DOW is going to move big time I

think it's IBM.

 

CYMI has poor business prospects looking forward and

Kohls's is retail and at the top of recent ranges. Their

charts look good for shorts.

 

But back to my main point

 

What happens if Saddam gets a bullet in the head

and you're short 10,000 shares of Dow stocks because

your cycle analysis says the market is going to hell and

you wake up to a mkt that's up 1000 points?

 

That is a very real possibility... and each day we move

deeper into the war the more that possibility moves

into the shadow world of probability.

 

It's my advice to be flat or amply hedged. This mkt

is nothing to be giddy about ... bear or bull.

 

One does not have to trade every day. Standing on

the sidelines is a valid mkt decision. Trading this

mkt is nothing more than gambling now.

 

Remember: SIZE KILLS!!!

[Goldmember]

On second thought, after a quick glance at a bunch of charts, forget those calls entirely. The correct move was to load up on puts last Friday and hang on to them for dear life for AT LEAST the next four or five days, on average. Perhaps flogging them at Thursday's close but I would have to get a progress report from the charts at that time. Any attempted up-phases should be very weak for a while yet.

[longOnUranus]

Rub - thanx

 

Every day in the market is a gamble. I remember THE MORNING of 9/11, 1 HOUR BEFORE THE PLANES HIT, Morgan (I think, I heard on it on the radio, I remember) put out a buy on the airlines because they were "Dover Sole".

 

We wake up with risk, and sleep with risk. To get more out of life, you have to accept more of it. Certainly, there are limits, at which time "risk" becomes "addiction".

 

No one can make that determination except the trader himself. It's the consequences of risk which determine his fate.

 

gold - agree. If we don't get at least 50% pullback, will reshort. When? When I feel like it. How's that for "risk"!

[DrStool]

Last week was a derivatives meltup. The market was overhedged, and The Bank of Japan set off a chain reaction melt-up which began when they bought dollars on 3/13. This week the market is underhedged and there are still no buyers. There were no marginal new buyers last week other than hedgers and other shorts covering their shorts. The war is an excuse. The rally would have happened regardless of the news. Today's selloff, likewise. Follow the flow of commercial hedging. That's what drives the market. The evidence of what triggered this and how it unfolded is incontrovertible. All unwinding bubbles have done the same thing after 36 months.

 

See the Weak End Anals

 

Get used to this volatility. Derivatives are the market. Dynamic hedging is spinning out of control. Last week meltup. This week meltdown. The market has no depth, liquidity is drying up.

[brian4]

MH- that translator for woofs-I'm goin to buy one so I can understand which side of the market my Buddy-Rub is on! The Federal DEFICIT for FEBRUARY was 96.3 BILLION and the total for fiscal 03 is 193.3 BILLION up 50% from LAST YEAR. So expect considerably over a TRILLION this year. We either are in B down of an ABC or we go straight down from here to new lows either way don't look for a bounce yet I think 840 will be telling if we bounce there we go up in C we go through it-look out below. Let's talk for a mo about the war and the effects on the markets we'll do it in an obtuse way to to avoid Docs blue pencil. The longer it lasts, the more it costs, the more the markets will implode. Today several voices from a British Major to Pissonme the Italian scallion on Procto and others talked about how the enemy was taking off uniforms and blending into the population was a good thing-UH_UH! You've seen that movie before-Good Morning Vietnam. The longer this lasts the faster the markets will fall. Todays drop was a spike reversal which confirms the previous trend which we know was incomplete. That trend may now be far deeper than it was before because now the "slope of Hope" is much steeper! Trade Safe-still short.

[phatbubble]

38.2% retrace of latest rally is 855. SMA 50 day is 853.5. triple top from 18 feb to 3 mar is 852.xx.

 

expect a shport battle @ 852-855. if none materializes, expect intervention in the form of sudden fake news and/or a futures jam. if none materializes, expect a surge of heady, jubilant bearish posts.

[Bird D Durr]

Nice to have a day where we can all breathe out slowly.........................

 

WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Back to reality.............it's about time................

[Kid]

Last week was a derivatives meltup. The market was overhedged, and The Bank of Japan set off a chain reaction melt-up which began when they bought dollars on 3/13. This week the market is underhedged and there are still no buyers. There were no marginal new buyers last week other than hedgers and other shorts covering their shorts. The war is an excuse. The rally would have happened regardless of the news. Today's selloff, likewise. Follow the flow of commercial hedging. That's what drives the market. The evidence of what triggered this and how it unfolded is incontrovertible. All unwinding bubbles have done the same thing after 36 months.

 

See the Weak End Anals

 

Get used to this volatility. Derivatives are the market. Dynamic hedging is spinning out of control. Last week meltup. This week meltdown. The market has no depth, liquidity is drying up.

Great weekend anals - anxiously awaiting your verdict and projections for the coming days since I was blown out of many shorts - Still short SPX and some other indexes, but am waiting for other confirmation before adding to these

[machinehead]

You've seen that movie before-Good Morning Vietnam.  The longer this lasts the faster the markets will fall.

B4 - agree with your strategic analysis, but not so sure about the effect on the market. The Tet offensive -- one of the toughest battles of 'Nam -- started in Feb. 1968. Yet stocks held up fine. 1968 was the year of 'go-go stocks,' with lots of high-tech speculation on the Amex. The Dow didn't top out until 3 Dec 1968.

 

Tet offensive Feb. 1968

 

I have to side with the Doc here. Even if we had the next 12 months of news headlines available now -- would we able to predict the effect on the stock market?

[Hypertiger]

First the massive marketing of the ?war rally?... Then the ?shocking? revelation that the BOJ was working with the FEDERAL RESERVE? the BANK OF JAPAN was restructured after the Second World War by the FEDERAL RESERVE which is a key part of the British Commonwealth central banking system? The ?real players? were all in position when Japan ?lit the fuse?

 

I was not shocked about the central banking love fests, I?ve known about it for close to 10 years now? Just never been able to see the play by play at such a high resolution or so close to real time until now...