soup Posted March 21, 2003 Report Share Posted March 21, 2003 I am still trying to figure out how a country that has a trade defict of over 5% of gdp is going to see an appreciating currency? Silly me, need to get with program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted March 21, 2003 Report Share Posted March 21, 2003 Isn't that an interesting coincidence that the "Shock and Awe" bombing of Sodamned's presidential compound occurs within 1 hour of March options expirations 1:00 pm frenzy. I still haven't figured out the 1:00 pm thing due to a lack of experience, but isn't that the exact time the options brokerage closes out the in-the-money positions if the individual account does not contain the funds to excersize the option right? Exact same thing happened last month, too, without the "Shock and Awe". Just an observation..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 21, 2003 Report Share Posted March 21, 2003 I am still trying to figure out how a country that has a trade defict of over 5% of gdp is going to see an appreciating currency? Silly me, need to get with program. soup, thinking along the same lines. if we go into serious economic decline gold rises. if we ramp into inflationary cycle gold goes up. if we get a shock event gold goes up. oil will dip and USD will rise on victory, which means gold goes down ST... looking for time when gold goes down and miners dont. started legging into NEM today, ive sold it up to $30+ before and i wanted to have at least a small position sub $25 as i really do believe that the world has changed. eventually, ill be overweight gold and NEM. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 First afternoon ive had free with computer access in a long time: Assuming Dec 2 high of 1521.44 was beginning of WAVE 1 of the waterfall 5, and it completed on Mar 12 with a low of 1253.22 . it had 5 obvious subwaves i-v Did WAVE 2 complete today from mar 12 low of 1253.22 to mar 21 high 1425.73...62%retrace of WAVE 1 at close of 1421 A number of interesting facts about todays close which strengthen the bear case: - Sitting at strong resistance from last fall - Hanging man! outside the daily BB - Closed the jan 16- jan 17 gapdown (1423-1401) which occurred early in subwave iii of WAVE 1 - Was a 62% retrace of WAVE 1 1521-1253 (within a pt) - While closing the early subwave iii gap down we also completed a 78% retrace(within a pt) of the subwave ii to subwave v move 1467-1253 Believe me I cant make this sh-t up Whats it all mean? Got me, but went waaaay long RYVNX at the close WAVE 3 begins monday on the comp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 That was one hell of an awe day! I agree Jorma "Bambie vs Godzilla" is a good way to put it. Am I still short-yup I'll hang around till a little over 900 and if she still has velocity I'll take a loss and sit for awhile-no I'm not a 100% short the losses if I have to take them will take a bite out of some good profits but hey I'll still be in the game. I've been doing this a long, long time been thru 87-22% interest rates, gold spikes, oil embargo's etc. I have never seen anything like this the world financially is falling apart, consumers are tapped, all levels of all governments are tapped and the markets are gaming a WAR and I do think they have PPT help in doing so. Sorry DBS your anti T/A cracks don't wash with me. As said earlier the markets have run up to their 200 day M/A's and IF they go over 920 technically it's time to go long and I will. But I don't believe that is going to happen-I have a very real sense of foreboding about the world economies-it simply can't keep going like this few companies are making money and those that do have debt which far outweighs net worth. Saddam falls and then what? it becomes another swamp like afghanistan-look at the demonstrations in the Arab world today-scary, very scary. The markets action is like the chicken having had his head cut off running around the barnyard until finally he falls over. My guess at this point with all the bulls sucked in and the war soon to be over is it just collapses under it's own weight or an event happens an unexpected one and it's over. In the meantime if it goes over 920 I'll be long. Speaking of Airlines Air Canada joined the crowd today 3600 layoffs and 40 permantely parked aircraft. The week after o/e is never nice to the bulls so in my view we go down and then is the moment of truth. Trade and stay Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Covered net long position at the close and will watch for a while. This is a dangerous intersection in the short-term but I seriously doubt it is the bottom of the bear. You can overlook fundamentals at the bottom if prices are low and interest rates aren?t pegged and generational lows. On a side note, I?m going pummel the next person who walks in my office and says ?shock and awe.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 A central banking system? This should be an interesting read from Jim Sinclair's new web site regarding his views on the Arab gold-backed dinar, and it's inherent threat to Uncle Buck and the Central Banking Matrix [of criminal minds]. "Shock and Awe" has just flipped the Eagle from the Matrix being terrified of the gold dinar, to the Arab proponents of the gold dinar being in "Shock and Awe" at the war being waged, and the inherent underlying threat to the remaining proponents of the proposed gold dinar. So, the only CONclusion I can reach is that, no, it is not an oil war as a Skeptic Light would think, but a full out CURRENCY WAR! [as other more astute stoolies have forecast months ago] Read between the lines....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 I am still trying to figure out how a country that has a trade defict of over 5% of gdp is going to see an appreciating currency? Silly me, need to get with program. soup, thinking along the same lines. if we go into serious economic decline gold rises. if we ramp into inflationary cycle gold goes up. if we get a shock event gold goes up. oil will dip and USD will rise on victory, which means gold goes down ST... looking for time when gold goes down and miners dont. started legging into NEM today, ive sold it up to $30+ before and i wanted to have at least a small position sub $25 as i really do believe that the world has changed. eventually, ill be overweight gold and NEM. good luck It's actually worse than 5% of GDP since GDP was a New Deal soviet-style measure designed to fool the public of that day and today. If one takes out the 42% of GDP that is due to non-productive gov't spending, then the ratio of debt to productive activity (productive domestic product!) is an appalling (Total US Debt) / (GDP * private sector fraction) = $34 trillion / ( 10.5 trillion * 0.58) = 5.6 or 560% of productive GDP which is on the low side since I've taken out the gov't component but left in all private sector services (some of which are productive - I suppose). Ie., I've still left in o non-productive private service sector activity (lawyers, traders, real-estate, etc.),and o inventories (which are perversely counted as being positive) Sources: Debt: GDP: Economagic To my this virtually guarantees inflation due to deflation of the US buck. We've (and the UK) been running a great experiment. Can the service economy replace a traditional manufacturing economy and still create real wealth? In my view, the answer is no. After all, how is the US going to repay their foreign creditors with services? Sell them tort lawyer services? The proverbial Brooklyn Bridge? Fwiw, I've ended up holding NEM via my purchase of Franco-Nevada back when I thought gold could go no lower then $270 - it bottomed around $250 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 DBS, i think he was referring to the deficiet and not debt, but that chart is ugly. FWIW, i also owned FN.to and also its sister co, euro-nevada. i flipped out of NEM over $30 and im just starting to reload. did you see that NEM is working a deal in nevada that gives them a royalty-type position if they choose. id guess thats the FN guys at work. FWIW, whether its gann, the waves, T/A, F/A, cycles, stars, whatever; the beauty of the market is that different strokes for different folks. maybe it could be left at that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 FWIW, some folks I know who are investors, not traders, and have very large cash balances to "put to work" did not follow the Bob Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker signal to go long. Many did follow the signal. What is interesting is that those who stayed in cash are NOW saying, they doubted Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker but now can see he is right. They are placing orders to buy at the market on Monday morning. I don't know how many others there are. There is a huge amount of liquidity in people's hands looking for a place to go. As the market has moved higher, this provides validity in their minds to the bull case. The worst is over, it is time to GO LONG, is what they are saying. For this reason, and intervention, and PPT, and etc etc etc it could continue. It seems insane to me, I am so confused. I was long and exited too early. I am scared to go short or long now, it is too insane. I could see dow at 9500 next week, or I could see it under 8000. Either is possible. Fundamentals mean nothing, technicals don't mean much either. The people I know are acting based on: what they are being told on TV, all the pundits, and their MOOD. They were depressed, now they are relieved and jubilant. That MOOD is all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Went back to hedging. Seem to do it every day. One of my guys had a stop at 896. If that was the top today, That was the best stop I will probably ever see in my lifetime. The futures hit 895.99. :shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Way too many disgruntled bears here this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 If Iraq has a supposed $6-9 trillion worth of oil in reserves,how much debt(credit) can be created from this when fractionally reserved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 22, 2003 Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 OKAY DOC.....I disagree with some of your earlier "rants" that these rallies are NOT the work of the Fed! Seems like I saw a little softening in your position in your interview with Ike and even in print here......In all seriousness....Where do you stand now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 22, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2003 Crooked- Good question. I think the rally was triggered when the BoJ bought dollars Wednesday night. That set off a chain reaction cross market short squeeze meltup that is still going strong. Eventually it will reverse, but not until it's exhausted. This relates to the 39 month meltup phenomenon that occurs in the unwinding of all bubbles. It is caused by the buildup of short positions and hedges, exacerbated today by the unprecedented level of dynamic hedging. Unfortunately this can sustain itself for awhile. An yes, cenrtral banks and Finance Ministries do play a role in triggering them. I also disagree with those who say TA doesn't work. In fact it is working beautifully. More in the Weak End Anals, Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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