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The view of the "Austrian School" on war and it's economic impact

 

Mises On War

 

Excerpts:

 

War prosperity is like the prosperity that an earthquake or a plague brings.

The earthquake means good business for construction workers, and cholera

improves the business of physicians, pharmacists, and undertakers; but no

one has for that reason yet sought to celebrate earthquakes and cholera as

stimulators of the productive forces in the general interest. (Nation,

State, and Economy, p. 154)

?

There have been...in all other nations, eulogists of aggression, war, and

conquest. (Omnipotent Government, p. 232)

?

War can really cause no economic boom, at least not directly, since an

increase in wealth never does result from destruction of goods. (Nation,

State, and Economy, p. 154)

?

[T]he essence of so-called war prosperity; it enriches some by what it takes

from others. It is not rising wealth but a shifting of wealth and income.

(Nation, State, and Economy, p. 158)

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Up is Down. Bad is Good. War is Peace. Slavery is Freedom.

 

Ignorance is Bliss.

 

 

 

Applied Materials advances after cuts

By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 4:09 PM ET March 18, 2003

 

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (CBS.MW) - Applied Materials shares rose on Tuesday after the world's largest manufacturer of chipmaking equipment said it will eliminate 14 percent of its workforce as it continues to cope with lackluster demand.

 

Deja Vu all over again:

 

Northwest to cut 4,900 jobs, schedule by 12% due to war By Tomi Kilgore

Northwest Airlines (NWAC: news, chart, profile) said it would reduce its workforce by 4,900 employees, and cut its flight schedule by 12 percent in response to the drop in demand resulting from the threat of, and commencement of hostilities in Iraq. The company also expects to idle 20 aircraft due to the schedule reduction. Northwest has now cut its workforce by 17,000 employees since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The stock closed Friday up 84 cents, or 11 percent, at $8.30.

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Wasn't today special? I am short via puts through the weekend. Just don't think they can stay up here until April. Might be wrong but still have cash left for a later day.

 

I bought some of that SPNC. Thanks so far. Might be all I have left after April. :lol: Good luck to all bears. Going into my cave and lick my wounds now. IG

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Up is Down. Bad is Good. War is Peace. Slavery is Freedom.

 

Ignorance is Bliss.

 

 

 

Applied Materials advances after cuts

By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 4:09 PM ET March 18, 2003

 

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (CBS.MW) - Applied Materials shares rose on Tuesday after the world's largest manufacturer of chipmaking equipment said it will eliminate 14 percent of its workforce as it continues to cope with lackluster demand.

 

Deja Vu all over again:

 

Northwest to cut 4,900 jobs, schedule by 12% due to war By Tomi Kilgore

Northwest Airlines (NWAC: news, chart, profile) said it would reduce its workforce by 4,900 employees, and cut its flight schedule by 12 percent in response to the drop in demand resulting from the threat of, and commencement of hostilities in Iraq. The company also expects to idle 20 aircraft due to the schedule reduction. Northwest has now cut its workforce by 17,000 employees since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The stock closed Friday up 84 cents, or 11 percent, at $8.30.

Insane, I agree.

 

On the other hand, I'm grateful. If the market was rational and efficient, then I couldn't make any money :)

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Iraq could easily capitulate over the week-end. I just couldn't take that risk on the short side. Media will be in full frenzy mode whipping up the mobs. Happy days are here again. We got a way to go on the upside. IMHO

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Holding various puts and XAU calls for the weekend, in case sanity returns to the market Monday. Yield spikes will hurt FNM and help gold, which is where most of my trading funds are (took a lot of cash out of my account the week before last). Not ready to pounce with more $ at the moment. Pretty negative for the week after today.

 

SPX puts are another matter. Q's did best today from a bear's point of view; SPEE's have a little too much DOWishness to them and, after a small pullback, will be ramped well over 900, me thinks. It takes a while for an investor's fear-factor to re-appear. Given the last 8 trading days, the War news, and Crapvision's orgasmic commentary, bulls are emboldened, for now. The bear's best hope for next week is a major bond crunch and hedge failure.

 

I continue to disagree with some regarding options. A margin call on a deeply leveraged (short) position can wipe you out. My losses today were finite and recoverable, and I never had to risk being taken out of the trade. For a trading account that is a minor portion of one's overall "asset" holdings, options have worked for me most of the time.

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Northwest to cut 4,900 jobs, schedule by 12% due to war By Tomi Kilgore

Northwest Airlines (NWAC: news, chart, profile) said it would reduce its workforce by 4,900 employees, and cut its flight schedule by 12 percent in response to the drop in demand resulting from the threat of, and commencement of hostilities in Iraq. The company also expects to idle 20 aircraft due to the schedule reduction. Northwest has now cut its workforce by 17,000 employees since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The stock closed Friday up 84 cents, or 11 percent, at $8.30.

Ugh. A very close couple - good friends, kids play with our kids - lives close to the economic edge. Not very careful with the money. Just finished construction on their new house. Just finished paying us off for a recent loan.

 

The wife is the breadwinner and is a pilot for NW.

 

I know where this is headed.....

 

I'm having a bad day, but I know others are having faaaaar worse days, so I'm not going to complain. Best to just flick the Eagle back into the air a few times and listen to the sound of my security.

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Wasn't today special? I am short via puts through the weekend. Just don't think they can stay up here until April. Might be wrong but still have cash left for a later day.

 

I bought some of that SPNC. Thanks so far. Might be all I have left after April. :lol: Good luck to all bears. Going into my cave and lick my wounds now. IG

No problem. Please put in a stop loss at your buy price so I wont feel responsible if something happens. :D Who better than the big ticket buyers to ask what products they like best! Especially when the goverment has such a say in its competition.

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Judging by the dearth of posts at this hour, I would guess most stoolies are still in shock and awe after today's mind-boggling meltup.

 

However, WH and I have a statistical model which indicates we ended the day on a par with the following dates:

 

Jan 18, 01

Apr 20, 01

May 2, 01

Oct 11, 01

Nov 7, 01

Aug 21 & 22, 02

Nov 6, 02

Nov 25, 02

 

All of these dates except for Nov 01 resulted in nice declines the following day or soon thereafter.

 

MWH

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