equtz Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 Small craps not worth the effort: Gloomberg: Tudor Returns Money 584735[/snapback] We've been findings tons of profitable trades in small cap land. sif, lxu, wsci, hti(now halo),eng, ttg, idsa, tblc, mea ghm etc...... Look outside of tech and also notice how many trade on the curb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 I'll bet a good chunk of the speculation in Spanish real estate is from other non-Spanish europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 In the real estate market, we are about to see the differences between a disaster, a catastrophe, and a calamity of biblical proportions, as time goes on. Spanish real estate is about to collapse according to this dude. They might be the second domino that sets off the worldwide collapse. The results are amazing. For one, Spain has the largest current account deficit in the industrial world after the United States. This is astonishing for a country with only 40 million people and that until recently was still considered a third-world country. Spain's current account deficit is now 10% of GDP. Household debt has risen to 133% of disposable income... the highest level in the world. (The U.S. ratio has just reached 110%, its own personal best.) Second, Spain has the largest property bubble in the world. More than 800,000 homes were built last year in Spain, beating France, Germany, and Italy combined. House prices have risen 270% over the past decade. A real bubble in housing construction formed last year. One builder ? called Astroc ? listed in June 2006. It's stock rose tenfold in the last nine months. Construction now represents 16% of total Spanish GDP. Now the interest-rate problem is hurting Spain again ? but this time its in the opposite direction. You see, the Germans have decided to raise interest rates on the euro. They've risen seven times since December 2005 to 3.75%. "Spanish housing is about to implode," says Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research. In Spain, 96% of mortgages use floating rates, but in Germany, most people have fixed-rate mortgages. In other words, the Germans are causing a property crash in Spain. a buttefly flaps its wings... 584737[/snapback] Spain's economy is fueled by money laundering from latin america and narcotrafic in to europe. I've posted articles here refering to the high percentage of 500 euros bank notes circulating in Spain (the largest by far in the euro zone) and traces of drugs on bank notes (although this was on level with similar studies conducted on ?5 notes in england). And in the last ten years russian mafia has been buying up houses in south of spain. Everyone does their dirty money laundering in Spain. Oh, and besides the speculation in RE there's even more speculation on RE stocks and some of these companies have been found to commit fraud to inflate results. The one you mentioned (Astroc) already had a nice haircut after this came to public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 Everyone's A Winner in RE? sumpthin' wrong wit yer mouse clicka, Pops? shout it out fo me Not exactly. Houses were vastly overpriced in 2002 and the fraudspike into 2005 just made them even more so. Not a penny of wealth was created in the bubble, nor will a penny of wealth be destroyed in the collapse. Wealth was merely transferred at the top from (stupid) buyers to (smart) sellers. Now the sellers have the money, and the buyers have the houses, along with all their obligations, i.e., monthly PAYments for mrotgouge interest, taxes, homoaner aSSociation fees, water, sewer, gas, electric, insurance, maintenance, etc. HomeDebtBagholders will not lose any money as prices crash, because all of their money was already lost when they signed on the dotted line to accept the obligations. Sure, in CA they can walk away from the first purchase mrotgouge butt very few resisted the temptation to borrow even more against their money pit. Ditech sucked them in, and they fell for it, and flushed it on Hummers and hummers. Now they're on the hook to pay it back, plus interest, and they can't. The peak of the wealth transfer in this particular scam was around June 2005, so the ARM resets really start to kick in bigtime this month -- now we shall begin to see the pain and suffering, it's only the beginning right now. Butt the deal was done back then. The fantasy life in between was just delaying the inevitable, and making it worse. The oversupply of homes is so bad that even swinging wide open the doors for amnesty for 15 million illegals and the 60 million to 90 million family members they'll bring in will not be enough to absorb it. Somebody has to pay the taxes and utilities on those money pits and somebody has to maintain them, and somebody has to pay mrotgouge interest on them. Unless Chuck Schumer seizes the 10 million to 15 million foreclosed homes we're likely to have the next few years, completely wiping out the mrotgouge bondholders (which ultimately means the taxpayers, i.e., YOU!) and simply gives the houses to the illegals for free and lets them not pay taxes, like they never paid taxes on their income. That's what it would take to absorb the oversupply, and it still would not keep prices from falling, because house prices are about four to ten times what they should be based on their investment value when all costs are figured in. So even under the Schumer Plan, we'll still see across the board price drops of greater than 50%, and without it we'll see 90% and worse. Prices can trade way above investment value on the way up a scam because the ramp is steep enough that the capital gains overcome the carrying cost. But without the enticement of capital gains from a greater fool, houses have no value beyond their true investment return figuring in all costs. And worse than that, with the certainty of capital losses from holding them, the trading value becomes much lower than even their true investment return. Nobody wants to aSSume a liability with negative $caSSh flow to begin with, butt with certain capital losses piled on top of the negative $caSSh flow, it's a total joke. What is a house worth? Basically nothing. In fact, less than that! It's a cost. Only when houses become speculative trading vehicles that most people view as wealth creators in a great game of everyone-wins-except-those-who-don't-get-in can they be "invested" in profitably, and only by flipping the hot potato to a greater fool. Once the game becomes everyone-is-losing-who-is-stuck-holding-houses-and-losing-more-every-minute, NOBODY wants in. The houses become less than worthless. Trying to sell one is like trying to give away your disease to someone else. They don't want it, at any price. Unless they can arrange a fraudscam with a crooked borker so they can pocket quick upfront tax-free $caSSh and then run away and hide. But to legitimately buy and hold a financial death trap? Forget about it. 90% to 110% losses will become the norm. Hole-punching, non-paying renters who skip town weren't even covering the ngative $caSSh flow the couple months they did pay before finally being evicted. And we've already seen people completely destroying their homes on the way out after being foreclosed. Many of those will end up being 150% to 200% losses. Do the math, girlfriend. A house purchased for $200K that is destroyed is not just a $200K loss. It takes another $200K to rebuild it. So that's $400K invested in the house, that is worth, now, claSS, how much? That's right, less than nothing. Very good. So you see, the losses can in some cases exceed 200%. Add to that the Debt interest and other negative $caSSh flow and the real return on investment can approach the negative 300% level in just a few short years. And that's the best case, aSSuming $caSSh-on-$caSSh returns (not that there's anything wrong wit dat). Because if you used leverage, don't even get me started. We be talkin' between thousands of % loss, all the way up to infinity. And beyond in some cases, wrapping all the way around the number line to whack ya in the aSS until you learn the Ultimate Truth of RE, for those left holding the bag: Everyone's a Loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 Shorty- I'm worried about you. You are starting to sound like Hypertiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 Well I am still very bullish on a select few as-yet-undiscovered-by-Wall-Street penny stock issues that were shared with me at last weekend's Wealth Power Seminar. Butt I'm not able to divulge them here. To do so would break the covenant of trust between the Rothchilds and myself, a bond formed when I took the oath of secrecy (and handed over my $3,995 one-time Society Membership fee). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
try2win Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 I do not care if most here are mega perma bears and ridicule Mark incessantly I still think he should open. After all the place has his name on it 584725[/snapback] i have to reallly try hard to ignore the perma bears everywhere, in fact i often wonder if most perma bears and heck perma bulls are working for hedge funds. i would also think they are working in some way to boost their positions. lets just say that SAC could hire 50-75 computer geeks to scour the top stock blogs i bet they could manipulate the masses one way or another. that is why i just watch the charts now. there have been some good charts posted here. even made some coin from a few. plus i have a nice collection of funny pics. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 i have to reallly try hard to ignore the perma bears everywhere.. I have been trying to avoid clowns recently so am spending most of my time at the Circus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
try2win Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 CSCO is looking great and IPv6 upgrade should be huge for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Prince Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 shorty I do love your writing even if I do not agree with the conclusions all the time. As to hyper, when you start to notice the spittle dribbling down your chin then for goodness sake get help, it is NOT normal. But as long as that doesn't happen your cool. dude. That $3995 sounds awful similar to Agora. Personally I think you get more value here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Prince Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 CSCO is looking great and IPv6 upgrade should be huge for them. 584753[/snapback] Duuude, like wow, MGN has 23 ounces of silver in the ground per share. What does CSCO have besides crooked books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 Shorty- I'm worried about you. You are starting to sound like Hypertiger. 584747[/snapback] Amen Listen Shorty: I enjoy a lunch made of truth,every once in a while,but the "whole truth and nothing but...." Uh Uh,my digestive system can only take so much.....a little jello,maybe some sour cream, chocolat Kayo also deserves a place on the menu..... beardrech Sir the only terms upon which I'll purchase that property is if the fixtures,all furnishings are included....Oh yes, the four current residents are to be shackled tothe property with a bond indenturing them for doing my chores for a minimum of twenty years... Do we have a deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 I do not care if most here are mega perma bears and ridicule Mark incessantly I still think he should open. After all the place has his name on it 584725[/snapback] i have to reallly try hard to ignore the perma bears everywhere, in fact i often wonder if most perma bears and heck perma bulls are working for hedge funds. i would also think they are working in some way to boost their positions. lets just say that SAC could hire 50-75 computer geeks to scour the top stock blogs i bet they could manipulate the masses one way or another. that is why i just watch the charts now. there have been some good charts posted here. even made some coin from a few. plus i have a nice collection of funny pics. LOL. 584749[/snapback] I totally agree with Mark's right to open and to comment--but I must say that I've never taken umbrage about bullish commentary from anyone--as a matter of fact as a contrarian,a better title, I welcome it... Why the rancour??? I see no reason for it....OK last year I did augment my income by a quarter of a million dollars shilling for some of the big houses,but surely you and your generous heart can find room enough for forgiving me... Now then, I have this list of tradeble shares sent to me by the Archmidean-Rothchild-Evergreen Trust,a subsidiary of NIck and Vito's Bank... If you're interested in going long with a guarantedd return of %12,000 percent simply send me large sums of money in a very large carpetbag and I shall deliver what I promise beardrech Enclosed is a notarised document certifying that I BD tell the truth over %60 of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 6, 2007 Report Share Posted June 6, 2007 CSCO is looking great and IPv6 upgrade should be huge for them. 584753[/snapback] Duuude, like wow, MGN has 23 ounces of silver in the ground per share. What does CSCO have besides crooked books. 584756[/snapback] They have 23 pounds of old outdated routers per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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