Bearbones Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 From The Stagflation Times Weekly Leading Index Slips 09/03/2004 NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A leading index of the U.S. economy continued its slide in the latest week, due to a fall in new mortgage applications and a rise in jobless claims, confirming a slowdown has begun, a report said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) slipped to 131.1 in the week ended Aug. 27 compared with 131.4 in the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell to -0.3 percent from 0.1 percent in the prior week. "Despite the recovery shown in the employment report the promptly available weekly leading indicators show no return to robust growth in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. And U.S. Inflation Pressures Pick Up 09/03/2004 NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - - U.S. inflation pressures rose in August as a result of faster growth in real estate loans and commodity prices, a report showed on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, climbed to 118.5 in August from a revised 117.4 in July, the research group said. The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, jumped to 3.5 percent in August from 1.7 percent in July. "The future inflation gauge is approaching its March 2004 high of 119.0, therefore inflation remains a lingering concern, said, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. http://www.businesscycle.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 A tale of two companies or a look at the past and the future. Intel (INTC ) lowered the $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion third-quarter revenue outlook to $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion. Intel says worldwide demand for its Architecture products is trending below expectations, and that communications revenue is weaker than expected. S&P and Lehman cut their estimates. http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/con..._0424_pi004.htm And SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - BHP Billiton said Tuesday that it is doubling annual metallurgical coal production because of rising steel demand. BHP said it will increase its production of metallurgical coal, which is converted into coke used in the steelmaking process, to around 100 million metric tons by 2010. The mining company said the change in the rate of growth in the global steel industry in recent years has created a significant increase in demand for steelmaking raw materials, including metallurgical coal. Production at the metallurgical coal mines owned by or allied with BHP was 58 million metric tons. BHP's share of the production was 34 million metric tons. The expansion will increase capacity to more than 60 million metric tons. On Tuesday, BHP shares closed up 26 cents to $18.71 in New York. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story...AAD5CD1FE7EB%7D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 MH posted a 3-month version of this chart some time ago and I thought I'd look at the 10-year version--TNX:IRX Amazing--I'm not sure what it means(carry trade over?) but it's pretty extreme! The Fed funds futures predict a 2.0% rate by December -- Fed funds quote Mad Al's bond/dollar pool chose to believe yesterday's upbeat employment numbers. But that creates a "too many plates spinning" problem for Mad Al. Given the "strong data," his "transient soft patch" theory now requires that he continue to "withdraw accommodation at a measured pace." When short rates were doubled from 1% to 2% in 1937, it crushed the economy and stock market. Is it going to be any different this time? Not really. After the recession bottomed in 1938, an orgy of Keynesian borrowing and spending commenced, in anticipation of the coming war. The response will be the same this time round -- trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. After all, it's only peachback paper. :wink2: :cry: Don Coxe is back from holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 A Safer America ? Globe & Mail In between, dozens of smaller bombings and hostage-takings took a constant and deadly toll ? Russian civilians paying the price for their government's dirty war in the breakaway Muslim region of Chechnya. Each time, President Vladimir Putin had a ready answer for a public that wanted to believe him: We'll destroy the terrorists, he told them. The war is being won. The rebels are almost defeated, and life in Chechnya, and Russia, is returning to normal, Mr. Putin says. ...Above all, the realization is setting in that five years of Mr. Putin's hard-line policies toward Chechnya have left Russians far less safe. Less than 24 hours before the shooting began, Mr. Putin had promised to do all he could to save the lives of the captives. Now he has another catastrophe to explain, and no place to put the blame but his own policy of war without compromise. ...The worst may be yet to come. The war is clearly no longer confined to Chechnya, and it risks acquiring an even more religious overtone. Beslan is in North Ossetia, a Christian enclave surrounded by Muslim areas. If bereaved parents seek reprisals against their Muslim neighbours, the result could be another Bosnia ? "a war throughout the Caucasus ..... a war that will last a century," said Alexei Malashenko, an anal cyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre not usually given to hyperbole. Previously, Mr. Putin responded to attacks by tightening the screws in Chechnya. He stepped up military pressure on rebels still holed up in the region's southern mountains and turned a blind eye to zachistki, the mop-up operations in which young Chechen men are dragged out of their homes for questioning, some never to be seen again. He could now order a fresh military offensive, but that would change nothing. Nor would a renewed hunt for rebels and their financiers. Writing just before yesterday's chaos, Georgy Bovt, managing editor of the daily Izvestia, noted that Russians have so far been stoic in the face of the onslaught of attacks. "But this doesn't mean there is no great wave of protest building up from within, which sooner or later will spill out onto the streets, first in the form of pogroms aimed at people from the Caucasus, then anti-government protests," he wrote. "How can any president's approval rating withstand that?" The truth is that until some peaceful resolution is found to the Chechen war, the whole country ? Mr. Putin included ? is its hostage, and the casualties will keep coming. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../BNStory/Front/ ELECTION 2004 REPUBLICAN CONVENTION: In city scarred by 9/11, Bush touts terror fight President pledges to make the world safer, America more hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 HiHat has now been banned. He asked me to let Brian and the others know so they will understand why he cannot post. He is bewildered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 Yesterday rog posted a link to a futures site which showed a 58% probability of a Bush victory, based on real-money bets. Ray Fair, a Yale economist who developed a six-factor regression model to predict elections, also forecasts Bush getting 58% of the vote ... and that was BEFORE (and totally unrelated to) the post-CONvention poll boost: Fo' mo years Our absent sage buddhadropping (and no Republican, that's for sure) made the same prediction, during his last appearance several weeks ago. Oligarchy theory says that the two political parties have cut a deal. Bush gets four more years, making eight total for the Republicans. Then the Democrats (most likely Hillary, not Kerry) get their eight years. Share and share alike -- it all goes into the same coffer. The biggest clue -- what defines the Bush presidency? A war based on a Big Lie. What did his "opponent" Kerry say about it? -- That he would have voted for the Iraq war resolution, even KNOWING (as he in fact did know) that there were no WMDs. I'm sorry, but Kerry is a ringer, a stooge, an accomplice of Bush. He was picked as a loyal placeholder, to go out and throw this "race." There is no "contest." Hail Emperor Bush -- we who are about to lose, salute you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 With Fances following Charley, is it time to consider shorts on property & casualty insurers in Florida (and other coastal areas) while the industry adjusts premiums? Some p&ci left the market following Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maximummark Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 Relax Machinehead, it's all in the genes: "Because of the fact that every presidential candidate with the most royal genes and chromosomes has always won the November presidential election, the coming election - based on 42 previous presidents - will go to John Kerry." http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/...1284632,00.html And the Kelley book will be so much fun, adding to the pile of Phillips, Martin, Moore, et al....lots of ammo for the debates...and even the other members of Skull & Bones tout Kerry's debating skills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threadbare Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 Damn Machinehead, Exactly what my brother thinks and has thought for about a year. I swear, he called me up and said, "Just saw the guy interviewed. He's completely hollow, a stooge, he'll throw it. Hillary's numbers are strong. They want her in in 2008." I told him he'd really gone off the deep end this time. But hell, when Kerry said that about voting for war even if there were no proof of wmds, I got that sinking feeling. You can't be too cynical when it comes to politics, especially at this level. But do you think Kerry is personally and consciously throwing the election, or do you think he's listening to people who wish to accomplish this objective and following their advice? My husband who voted for Nadar in 2000, was going to vote for Kerry in November, but has decided now he might just sit it out. How many more "swing" voters have been alienated in this fashion? I just got an email from someone who 2 years ago was all excited about Kerry as a potential Bush rival, he's now almost completely alienated from the democratic party and I don't know if he'll vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 LAX has just been shut down for 2 SECURITY incidents,Bomb Squad and SWAT teams in attendance. CNN reports one incident was (get this) corroded batteries in a passengers flashlight exploded INJURING 7 people, other incident as yet unknown-this looks like one they can't spin there way out of. CNN live at LAX now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWD Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 I'm sorry, but Kerry is a ringer, a stooge, an accomplice of Bush. He was picked as a loyal placeholder, to go out and throw this "race." There is no "contest." Short Iranian equities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mars Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 Yesterday rog posted a link to a futures site which showed a 58% probability of a Bush victory, based on real-money bets. Ray Fair, a Yale economist who developed a six-factor regression model to predict elections, also forecasts Bush getting 58% of the vote ... and that was BEFORE (and totally unrelated to) the post-CONvention poll boost: Fo' mo years Our absent sage buddhadropping (and no Republican, that's for sure) made the same prediction, during his last appearance several weeks ago. Oligarchy theory says that the two political parties have cut a deal. Bush gets four more years, making eight total for the Republicans. Then the Democrats (most likely Hillary, not Kerry) get their eight years. Share and share alike -- it all goes into the same coffer. The biggest clue -- what defines the Bush presidency? A war based on a Big Lie. What did his "opponent" Kerry say about it? -- That he would have voted for the Iraq war resolution, even KNOWING (as he in fact did know) that there were no WMDs. I'm sorry, but Kerry is a ringer, a stooge, an accomplice of Bush. He was picked as a loyal placeholder, to go out and throw this "race." There is no "contest." Hail Emperor Bush -- we who are about to lose, salute you! The problem with the model is simple - it uses averages across a small sample. I don't think I'd bet the farm on that. Forget the polls - most are push anyway with a predetermined outcome designed to capture a headline. The only thing that matters are the electoral votes on the 3rd of November - everything else is just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 ftrom melduke's blog 9/4/04 Failed Policies Of The Present Before proceeding with an analysis describing where I went wrong with my payrolls projection, I would like to indulge readers of this blog with some observations. The Labor Dept states, that since January, industries in the lowest 20% for annual salaries have created 477,000 jobs and industries in the top 20% for pay have exhibited zero job growth. In addition, those laid off and then finding another job, report that 57% are earning less than before. Between 2002 and 2012, the Labor Dept expects the economy to create more than 7.5 million jobs; however, almost 6 million of those new jobs will be low-wage jobs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 LAX is still shut down, Dept. of Homeland Security now says no explosion and no injuries....spin, spin, nothing to see here move along...CNN standing by their story of explosion and injuries to 7 people this appears to be even too much for CNN to take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted September 4, 2004 Report Share Posted September 4, 2004 Truly nutz. By putting his name and link here Doc may get more hits! May Larry rest in peace. You seen him down there yet, trader? Excluding the really dangerous occupations I would ventire to say that %75 of fatal accidents occurinf are disguised forms of committing suicide And a significant minority of the non-fatal accidents are failed attempts atachieving the above beardrech Suicide is a heroic attempt to find an alternate to a super-asperin tablet;Unhappily the side effects rule it out as a supreme nostrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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