Ned38 Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Maybe sumpin.........maybe nuttin....IYR is the real estate index fund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Longer term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Brian, you make a good case for a potential top. I have tomorrow as a potential time target based on the July 24, 02 low, so give or take a couple of days, it's also nicely in the range for a possible major top. Gann aside though, at EOD my model gave a "close dongs, go flat" signal on the ndx and a potential short on the spx. The latter has pretty decent odds of panning out, if not immediately, then within the next couple of days, so it's heartening to read that you came to the same conclusion. While I am keen to short at this point, my calculations didn't show the market as sufficiently technically overbought to warrant a position. So I'm not putting on any shorts other than high-odds overnight scalps until the trend turns around. Madame, 50% Fibonacci timeline 50% SPX retrace Gann 360 off of October 2002 My RPCM2 indicator very negative for December Last week's buying climax (volume spike) in S&P A SELL today in my short-term model (requires confirmation) NDX/INDU indicator making a double-top I'm climbing the stairs to the bell tower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 jrmfl Above is link to a fine piece of Deduction.......written by JRMFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 anyone have a chart of 30-year mortgage rates going back to at least 1998? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 jrmfl Above is link to a fine piece of Deduction.......written by JRMFL For some reason I don't think this was a typo...... ?What value can the Untied States provide to the world?? In fact, I think it's a perfect fit. AS p.s. I've been drinking some Lovello Lambrusco tonight...which rule am I violating? p.p.s. Bought 1500 more LYNX at 6.27. Will load up on DROOY soon....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Doc, Hyper, et al. What's the magic number to kick start the next refi binge? Has to break the June lows by at least 25 bp's and keep going down. It's not going to happen. Yields are headed higher. I guarantee it. - George Zimmerstool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agent.5 Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 The only values that America export are "American Dream" and debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Bush Moon plan?? Is Tech going for a moon landing? Agree that gold is consolidations; more down move can be expected. Feed: Love your chart, always... No reason what we can't hit Nasdog 3000 for Bubble 2 and I say we see Nasdog 3000 by May/June... and then we crash & burn? Except this time, the real estate market will finally feel the heat as some will be forced to liqudate RE to pay for stock market losses.. My wife's realtor with this fireman fish who "Used" to have 1Million in the stockmarket( that was probably his all time high for his portfolio if he cashed out at the top) wants to buy RE but doesn't want to pull the trigger cause he's got 600K now in the market and he's GOTTA make his 1Million mark back!!! So for sure, we are going UP UP and AWAY very fast as Wyndsrf has written tonight... I love capitalstool but sometimes the comments here have made me close my dongs way too early, ditto for LU , JDSU... The Nasdoggy madness is a self-feeding self-reinforcing sickness that will march up and up and kill allof us, bulls, bears and scalpers... we go up until it doesn't go up anymore so I'm gonna let stop limits take me out from now on instead guessing the tops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Has to break the June lows by at least 25 bp's and keep going down. It's not going to happen. Yields are headed higher. I guarantee it. - George Zimmerstool I just sold some aaa rated corp bonds I was holding.if i decide to buy more at some point,is there a way to hedge myself if rates skyrocket?.or is there a bond fund that pays dividends but also hedges against rising rates? would like to get some safe income while protecting my principle.does something like this exist? anyone?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 They have supercomputers at the FED or wherever they control this mess...The social engineering of the past 40+ years has simplified those equations such as the implementation of Just think positive self indulgent reason cult which eliminates truth from the equations...I'm sure that every decison or button push is modeled...or this mess would have blown years ago but each previous result is the next input into the equation to provide the new result...The debt inflationary equation has been one where results that produced too much and too little were discarded...Unfortunately the more debt inflation produced the greater the debt inflation needed to sustain it...at some point the debt inflationaty equation will simplify also where only infinite debt inflation will work...but at the same time will not work...Or basically a 3 THz liquid nitrogen cooled supercomputer that no matter what is inputed keeps outputting economic doomsday scenarios...and it is garbage in garbage out...so even if the theoretical maximum potential of the system to produce debt inflation in greater quantities than debt deflation is around late 2005...It can show up sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 Here's the All Ords chart for the past year. We've gone absolutely nowhere since last October. Good luck to the bulls elsewhere on the planet but here it's dullsville.. A possible double top coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 The Gann folks all became slobberingly Bearish today-it seems when we hit 1139 Spoo cash that was exactly 360 degrees (on the Gann square of 9) from the Oct.02 low of 769-now I am not a Gann follower-but I do remember Black Belt musing about the number 1139 any Ganner out there who can shed some light??? Trade safe! What's good for the Goose is good for the Ganner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 uh oh....here we go again http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...tate_of_union_5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted January 17, 2004 Report Share Posted January 17, 2004 anyone have a chart of 30-year mortgage rates going back to at least 1998? TIA. Now if rates don't drop then The new house construction biz will implode... along with what is currently understood as civilization... In November of 2003 average new home price was $275,000 usually for the past 12 years of this Mortgage backed securities bubble the price in the final month was the average for the next year...Average Volume for 2003 was 105,000/month and Average debt created per month was 25 Billion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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