DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 Good Morning! Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening! You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well. Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply. If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page. If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread. Many tanks for joining us! Doc Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information. Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days! Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patents Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I warned over the weekend that we should start seeing headlines on this within the next few days. Well, here's the first one, from the NY Times, no less. http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/11...ey-market-fund/ 623699[/snapback] Am I correct in assuming that so long as the banks or other institutions continue to make whole the money market funds there will be little, if any, impact on the greater market. The only time that the populace will care will be when the people's accounts are no longer worth the cash that was put into the money markets. If so, then this is merely more smoke and not a triggering event, which will likely come later. This is just one of the nasty cock roaches in the financial system that is not SHORT term tradeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I warned over the weekend that we should start seeing headlines on this within the next few days. Well, here's the first one, from the NY Times, no less. http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/11...ey-market-fund/ 623699[/snapback] Am I correct in assuming that so long as the banks or other institutions continue to make whole the money market funds there will be little, if any, impact on the greater market. The only time that the populace will care will be when the people's accounts are no longer worth the cash that was put into the money markets. If so, then this is merely more smoke and not a triggering event, which will likely come later. This is just one of the nasty cock roaches in the financial system that is not SHORT term tradeable. 623701[/snapback] Not short term tradable? The WSE Pro's chart picks (ETFs only) are up 7% in 7 trading sessions. Some stoolies have reported that they have had their best week ever trading options etc. Our resident futures traders like K Wave and Madness have done very well also. So don't give me that crap. This market is eminently tradeable. All you have to do is read the goddam charts and stop trying to game the news with paranoid ideation. We all know that the system is manipulated. So what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patents Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I warned over the weekend that we should start seeing headlines on this within the next few days. Well, here's the first one, from the NY Times, no less. http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/11...ey-market-fund/ 623699[/snapback] Am I correct in assuming that so long as the banks or other institutions continue to make whole the money market funds there will be little, if any, impact on the greater market. The only time that the populace will care will be when the people's accounts are no longer worth the cash that was put into the money markets. If so, then this is merely more smoke and not a triggering event, which will likely come later. This is just one of the nasty cock roaches in the financial system that is not SHORT term tradeable. 623701[/snapback] Not short term tradable? The WSE Pro's chart picks (ETFs only) are up 7% in 7 trading sessions. Some stoolies have reported that they have had their best week ever trading options etc. Our resident futures traders like K Wave and Madness have done very well also. So don't give me that crap. This market is eminently tradeable. All you have to do is read the goddam charts and stop trying to game the news with paranoid ideation. We all know that the system is manipulated. So what. 623702[/snapback] Once again you seem to be overly defensive with me. I am not intimidating anything about the overall direction of the market. All that I am sayig is that this one piece of information is not going to have an impact on the "markets" TODAY. There is some information that immediately impacts the market. There are others, as you point out, that are more like smoke before there is fire. That is all that I am saying. It has nothing to do with the concept of manipulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 Big rally. QQQQ 5 hr cycle projection 49.42. 3 day cycle indicators went to the buy side last night, and 5 day went to the buy side in the pre market. 5 day cycle MA at 49.35 and a trendline there from 11/8 represent resistance. A trendline from 11/7 comes in at 49.52. The 8 day cycle MA is up at 49.83. spy has already hit 5 hr cycle projection of 144.95. 5 day cycle MA is at 144.91. 8 day 145.37. Key downtrend line 145.52. 3 and 5 day cycle indicators have been out of synch and have not yet broken the downtrending pattern. Ditto for the dia which just hit the 5 day cycle MA at 130.77. Downtrend lines at 130.88 and 131, and the 8 day cycle MA is at 131.28. DIA hasn't quite reached 5 hr cycle projection of 130.90. dia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I warned over the weekend that we should start seeing headlines on this within the next few days. Well, here's the first one, from the NY Times, no less. http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/11...ey-market-fund/ 623699[/snapback] Am I correct in assuming that so long as the banks or other institutions continue to make whole the money market funds there will be little, if any, impact on the greater market. The only time that the populace will care will be when the people's accounts are no longer worth the cash that was put into the money markets. If so, then this is merely more smoke and not a triggering event, which will likely come later. This is just one of the nasty cock roaches in the financial system that is not SHORT term tradeable. 623701[/snapback] Not short term tradable? The WSE Pro's chart picks (ETFs only) are up 7% in 7 trading sessions. Some stoolies have reported that they have had their best week ever trading options etc. Our resident futures traders like K Wave and Madness have done very well also. So don't give me that crap. This market is eminently tradeable. All you have to do is read the goddam charts and stop trying to game the news with paranoid ideation. We all know that the system is manipulated. So what. 623702[/snapback] Once again you seem to be overly defensive with me. I am not intimidating anything about the overall direction of the market. All that I am sayig is that this one piece of information is not going to have an impact on the "markets" TODAY. There is some information that immediately impacts the market. There are others, as you point out, that are more like smoke before there is fire. That is all that I am saying. It has nothing to do with the concept of manipulation. 623703[/snapback] You wrote that the market is not SHORT term tradable, with SHORT in all caps. If that wasn't your point, you sure could have fooled me. It was a ridiculous statement. I just feel that trying to game the news is a waste of time. Yeah, there are some things that can be obviously faded, but typically only in conjunction with the charts. There's just no point in trying to figure out what news is going to have what impact. On the other hand, we have building incontrovertible evidence of a collapse in liquidity. Each bit of evidence builds the case that the market will reflect that over time. It has no choice. In the meantime, WSE Pro subscribers know that there's a major liquidity event this week that has a significant likelihood of impacting the market today and tomorrow. They are not in the dark and they will not be in the least bit surprised by what the market does in response to this event. They also have guidance from the cycle analysis at what point in time there's some likelihood of a low developing for this move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 Looking like today may be bounce day....as I said last night, we were very over done short term on NQ....would expect the NAZ rally to peter out somewhere between 2060-2100 area, if it does indeed get up a head of steam today. Gold also gettin' a pop with indexes, if she breaks above 810, could see 820-25 area....back below 805 and she has more work to do downside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 More fuel for the fire. "The most recent disclosures by the 10 largest money-market fund managers show that eight of them held a combined $49.8 billion in SIV commercial paper or medium-term notes. " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...DdAQ&refer=home I have been warning about this for months. There are some smaller funds that won't have the good fortune to have a parent that can prop them up. That will start the "run on the bank" on the money funds that will signal the onset of complete systemic collapse. This story has been front page news in the Canadian financial media since last summer, but it has been largely ignored here. They are grossly understating the exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I warned over the weekend that we should start seeing headlines on this within the next few days. Well, here's the first one, from the NY Times, no less. http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/11...ey-market-fund/ 623699[/snapback] Am I correct in assuming that so long as the banks or other institutions continue to make whole the money market funds there will be little, if any, impact on the greater market. The only time that the populace will care will be when the people's accounts are no longer worth the cash that was put into the money markets. If so, then this is merely more smoke and not a triggering event, which will likely come later. This is just one of the nasty cock roaches in the financial system that is not SHORT term tradeable. 623701[/snapback] Not short term tradable? The WSE Pro's chart picks (ETFs only) are up 7% in 7 trading sessions. Some stoolies have reported that they have had their best week ever trading options etc. Our resident futures traders like K Wave and Madness have done very well also. So don't give me that crap. This market is eminently tradeable. All you have to do is read the goddam charts and stop trying to game the news with paranoid ideation. We all know that the system is manipulated. So what. 623702[/snapback] Once again you seem to be overly defensive with me. I am not intimidating anything about the overall direction of the market. All that I am sayig is that this one piece of information is not going to have an impact on the "markets" TODAY. There is some information that immediately impacts the market. There are others, as you point out, that are more like smoke before there is fire. That is all that I am saying. It has nothing to do with the concept of manipulation. 623703[/snapback] You wrote that the market is not SHORT term tradable, with SHORT in all caps. If that wasn't your point, you sure could have fooled me. It was a ridiculous statement. I just feel that trying to game the news is a waste of time. Yeah, there are some things that can be obviously faded, but typically only in conjunction with the charts. There's just no point in trying to figure out what news is going to have what impact. On the other hand, we have building incontrovertible evidence of a collapse in liquidity. Each bit of evidence builds the case that the market will reflect that over time. It has no choice. In the meantime, WSE Pro subscribers know that there's a major liquidity event this week that has a significant likelihood of impacting the market today and tomorrow. They are not in the dark and they will not be in the least bit surprised by what the market does in response to this event. They also have guidance from the cycle analysis at what point in time there's some likelihood of a low developing for this move. 623705[/snapback] The markets are ALWAYS SHORT term tradable, I do it every damn day. Those that say it isn't, just haven't developed the skill set to do it. It CAN be done. And by the way, I pay zero attention to the news, don't even have a TV in my trading room. And besides, I get all the news that is worth a sh*t off the trading boards anyway...much better information than MSM. One day the market will move one way on "news", and then the next, on the same type of "news" it will move the other....news is noise, charts rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I have called etrade 22 times now...They hang up on me every single time.(after making me hold 20 minutes each time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patents Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 You wrote that the market is not SHORT term tradable, with SHORT in all caps. If that wasn't your point, you sure could have fooled me. It was a ridiculous statement. I just feel that trying to game the news is a waste of time. Yeah, there are some things that can be obviously faded, but typically only in conjunction with the charts. There's just no point in trying to figure out what news is going to have what impact. On the other hand, we have building incontrovertible evidence of a collapse in liquidity. Each bit of evidence builds the case that the market will reflect that over time. It has no choice. In the meantime, WSE Pro subscribers know that there's a major liquidity event this week that has a significant likelihood of impacting the market today and tomorrow. They are not in the dark and they will not be in the least bit surprised by what the market does in response to this event. They also have guidance from the cycle analysis at what point in time there's some likelihood of a low developing for this move. 623705[/snapback] Short term, to me, is something of immediate impact. I guess I feel any position held overnight is intermediate term. (I very recently also starting to think that any position held from the morning to the afternoon is intermediate term with the dual nature of the market the past week and the moving away from the typical ramp into the close.) For instance, a Fed decision is short term tradeable. There is an instant reaction. It is something that is in the front of the brain. Another example is that of a bank announcing a write-down. That may have an immediate impact on that company's stock, but does not permeate into the broader market. There is a lag in its value as an indicator for the broader market. The break the buck example is more like a cock roach in the financial framework. Where there is one, there likely are ten more. It is an indicator that something is wrong, but unless someone is scared of roaches, it is no reason to immediately react. The immediate reaction is to me short term. The indicator that there are cock roaches in the house is an intermediate term indicator. I will learn and adapt from your comment and that from my daughter with her comment about my text messaging. I will no longer capitalize except at the beginning of sentences and for proper nouns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I would imagine that some of the weaker money market funds may be taken over by the stronger ones. The industry will attempt to do this in its own long term interest. They know that they cannot afford a "run". So they will take some substantial losses now to prevent that. That could forestall collapse, but it will not affect the ongoing shrinkage of liquidity. I think that it boils to to the question of either allow a crash, or have a long drawn out bear market lasting years. Initially, they will opt to try to prevent the crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 I ve noticed the canadian banks have held up better than most of their us counterparts. Just a matter o time before they start to crack. Opex numbers had rally written all over them, the boyz are desperate when they have to get things movin in the thinly traded AH. Lots of buying this am from yesterdays wrong way shorts ho didnt cover at the bell. Still think the EOW will be the next great short opp. trade safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 Just an observation, with everything fiat, What is to stop the creation of new money (whether fictitious or not) to fix or attempt to fix this problem.....the idea of hyperinflation is real and it needs a catalyst to start it. A crisis of liquidity (which Doc has pointed out so well) in my opinion is just the event. Yes all assets could go down initially but if helicopters of money are coming, the fireworks are just starting for gold. I believe deflation will hit the assets that are tied with debt, all others will eventually go higher. The sad part is that the good assets will be used to pay off the bad ones, in essence creating no wealth. Great chart reading the last few weeks by many here.. keep up the great work.. I appreciate it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 13, 2007 Report Share Posted November 13, 2007 You wrote that the market is not SHORT term tradable, with SHORT in all caps. If that wasn't your point, you sure could have fooled me. It was a ridiculous statement. I just feel that trying to game the news is a waste of time. Yeah, there are some things that can be obviously faded, but typically only in conjunction with the charts. There's just no point in trying to figure out what news is going to have what impact. On the other hand, we have building incontrovertible evidence of a collapse in liquidity. Each bit of evidence builds the case that the market will reflect that over time. It has no choice. In the meantime, WSE Pro subscribers know that there's a major liquidity event this week that has a significant likelihood of impacting the market today and tomorrow. They are not in the dark and they will not be in the least bit surprised by what the market does in response to this event. They also have guidance from the cycle analysis at what point in time there's some likelihood of a low developing for this move. 623705[/snapback] Short term, to me, is something of immediate impact. I guess I feel any position held overnight is intermediate term. (I very recently also starting to think that any position held from the morning to the afternoon is intermediate term with the dual nature of the market the past week and the moving away from the typical ramp into the close.) For instance, a Fed decision is short term tradeable. There is an instant reaction. It is something that is in the front of the brain. Another example is that of a bank announcing a write-down. That may have an immediate impact on that company's stock, but does not permeate into the broader market. There is a lag in its value as an indicator for the broader market. The break the buck example is more like a cock roach in the financial framework. Where there is one, there likely are ten more. It is an indicator that something is wrong, but unless someone is scared of roaches, it is no reason to immediately react. The immediate reaction is to me short term. The indicator that there are cock roaches in the house is an intermediate term indicator. I will learn and adapt from your comment and that from my daughter with her comment about my text messaging. I will no longer capitalize except at the beginning of sentences and for proper nouns. 623710[/snapback] Your constant attempts to game the news can only lead to frustration and ongoing losses. This is a game that you cannot win. It is a complete waste of time and strikes me as masochistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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