Guest Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Good morning, everyone. Something's been bugging me since Friday afternoon - a sense of unease about the first part of my contribution to that truly magnificent seventh degree IDSnest shortly after that day's close. I've been concerned that perhaps some of you might have taken it in the wrong way. That maybe it gave the appearance that I was making light of and trivializing the discomfort and pain expressed by a number of stoolies that day. If this is indeed true, then please accept my regrets for the way I worded it because in no way was that my intention. It simply came from the Faber/4077th space which seems to be the norm here on Friday afternoons. And, of course, I just couldn't resist the opportunity to make my own contribution to that monster stoolnest, perhaps in doing so even qualifying it for the Stoolville Book Of Records. Like perhaps everyone else here, I too have known discomfort and pain because of the market. In fact, just about six years ago I came within a nanometer of "losing it" completely before my "main circuit breaker" once again kicked in. Right at the edge of the cliff. It was my closest call ever. And I never intend to be anywhere close to that place ever again, having now established safeguards to prevent this from recurring. And when I talk about "losing it" I'm talking more emotional than financial. Which is in keeping with what I've said before about the fact that the terrible emotional consequences of "crossing the line" that separates prudent, businesslike investing/trading from compulsive gambling most often far outweigh the financial consequences. It is not over dramatizing to say that pursuit of the getting rich quick goal (be it in the market, at the race track, the gaming tables, etc.) has put many a person on the road towards insanity, the gates of prison, or even death. No amount of money you could possibly make is worth making that kind of trip. Greg and others have reminded us that whatever your weakness is, the market will find it out. And exploit it to the hilt in an effort to make you cross that line. Which is why I keep harping on the importance of the Inner Game, your main defense in staying on the right side of the line. You must know thyself before you can successfully know the market. You must find out what your limitations are and be willing to work within these constraints if you wish to keep playing this game in a sane and centered manner. I myself eventually had to learn and accept the fact that doing certain things in this arena were absolutely verboten for me. Even though they worked or seemed to work for others. Period. And after I accepted this and acted upon it I regained the balance that had become virtually nonexistent in my life, perhaps an experience some of you other veterans went through at some point in your own lives. And, once again, I hope that these opening thoughts for the new week will serve to keep more of you out of harm's way than might otherwise have been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Glad, No wonder you opened up a little late this morning. Looks like you've been writing since about 3AM. Wonderful piece. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 thanks glad, great opening thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seamus Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1046044...page%5Fone%5Fus Top for the mortgage market? Ahold fraud - overstated profits by $500mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Good morning and good stool to all! In today's Stooltrading Beta, once again I will experiment with a slight format modification. One of these days, we'll get to a place that works for most of us who are interested. Today, by poopular demand, I will do a brief written comment at approximately 9:20, 10:15, 11:15 and 12:15. I will do a mid day comment in the Anals at 12:45. If you are not a subscriber, you will not be able to access that. The next update will be in Stooltrading at 2:15. No update at 1:15. Doc has missed too many lunches. Anotehr update in Stooltrading at 3:15. That will be the last one. The closing wrap on the intraday patterns will as always be posted in the nightly Anals. Let's see how that works out. As always, your feedback is requested. On another matter, one way this site generates revenue is through its bookstore. So I appreciate when you discuss books. That's great. What isn't helpful is when you discuss a trading or investing book, then point a link to some other bookstore. It forces me to edit your post, which is time I'd rather not waste. If you'd like to help out, search the bookstore, and if your book is there, point a link to it. Very good! The search box is in the left column, and also below the message board. If the book is not in the bookstore, please do not link to a competitor's bookstore. If someone is interested, they will find it. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Doc, Tanks for listening to POOPular demand....................And for all you non-subscribers............you are missing out...........subscribe.............it's the best money you'll ever invest........... -Birdman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Ahold's symbol is AHO. How appropriate. They were one of John Dessauer's "buy and hold forever" stocks. We rarely hear of him any more after his rise to fame in the bull market, particularly due to many appearances on Rookheiser's Wall Street Week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Toshihiko Fukui is the head of the BOJ. Fukui! Fukui! Ahem. These Ino fuk-(ui)-u-tures charts are suspect.... got em from Night Stool :wink2: The US Dollar Credit: http://quotes.ino.com Gold Credit: http://cdchart.innovative-software.com NDX futures (delayed) Credit: http://quotes.ino.com SPX futures (delayed) Credit: http://quotes.ino.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 As I mentioned end last week daily cycles topping 2/20 +/-....I would not be surprised to see 15-20 handles off this market 1st part of this week........looking for test from here of the lows last Thursday week...cycle heads down into 3/9....which should tie in +/- with the medium term cycle lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 PHUN WITH PHIB ARCS some thoughts about where we are (besides Phase 2 - Debt Deflation ): the arcs on the chart below have acted like magnets for SPX movement (it's unsettling that the on the way up, the market appears to have anticipated where it would retrace from later on, but that's another topic altogether). i'm pretty sure another set or two of retracement arcs would account for all the major support/resistance levels, but as i didn't have the good sense to use rings instead of filled circles, i had to leave off before the whole thing became an opaque mess. the chart suggests that not only must we hold above the october lows next month, but after that we must continue to 'ride the arc' higher....or we'll drop through the last significant retracement arc of the entire secular bull market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 When in doubt, good futures link compliments of Brian: http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/ Although last night I couldn't get the chart to update (and have had that problem before) it's very clear this morning -- off the cliff at 2 a.m. eastern. Guess we'll see if that can pull it back on the cliff before our open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheet4brain Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 That is one phery cool chart, phat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Phat: That's a really interesting chart.It looks like falling off the end of the world if we don't hold the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Doc ain't too bright. Almost forgot to open the MIT Library this morning. All TA, all the time! Stoolwethers are posted. Suctors should be up by 9:15. http://www.capitalstool.com/paid/suctors.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 24, 2003 Report Share Posted February 24, 2003 Phat: Again, great charts. Please keep posting them and updating them regularly....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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