machinehead Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Remarks by Chairman Alan GreenspanThe mortgage market and consumer debt At America?s Community Bankers Annual Convention, Washington, D.C. October 19, 2004 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...019/default.htm In summary, although some broader macroeconomic measures of household debt quality do not paint as favorable a picture as do the data on loan delinquencies at commercial banks and thrifts, household finances appears to be in reasonably good shape. There are, however, pockets of severe stress within the household sector that remain a concern and we need to be mindful of the difficulties these households face. In addition, a significant decline in consumer incomes or house prices could quickly alter the outlook; nonetheless, both scenarios appear unlikely in the quarters immediately ahead. If lenders, including community bankers, continue their prudent lending practices, household financial conditions should be all the more likely to weather future challenges. I'd think that if I get to attain a ripe old age, I'll leverage my seniority to ever more faithfully speak what I perceive to be the truth. I will not do so on the side of lies and obfuscation. Unlike Dorian Gray, Mad Al didn't even get to a keep a youthful face to mask his lies and malefaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 MBI being flushed down the toilet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 If this guy had any money left, he would own tech stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 No way 1115 holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Remarks by Chairman Alan GreenspanThe mortgage market and consumer debt At America?s Community Bankers Annual Convention, Washington, D.C. October 19, 2004 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...019/default.htm In summary, although some broader macroeconomic measures of household debt quality do not paint as favorable a picture as do the data on loan delinquencies at commercial banks and thrifts, household finances appears to be in reasonably good shape. There are, however, pockets of severe stress within the household sector that remain a concern and we need to be mindful of the difficulties these households face. In addition, a significant decline in consumer incomes or house prices could quickly alter the outlook; nonetheless, both scenarios appear unlikely in the quarters immediately ahead. If lenders, including community bankers, continue their prudent lending practices, household financial conditions should be all the more likely to weather future challenges. Put that through the easyAl BS decoder and out comes: One of the rods blew right through the cylinder head. Oil is spilling out the top. Paint is melting right off the oil pan. The engine continues to run, but its only making 20% power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 S&P 5-day chart a bit of a worry http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 They are selling the mortgage insurers Another pillar under attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pistolpapa Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Prechter's latest. Excerpt. Q: Can the Federal Reserve prevent deflation? ? A: No. We have a huge bond market of $30 trillion, which is debt already created. If bond investors came to believe that the Fed would begin printing money and throwing it around, what would they do? They would sell every bond they have got, which would lead to a decrease in the supply of credit because bond prices would fall and interest rates would rise. So there aren?t any alternatives to deflation. * sigh * It's remarks like these which remind me that Bob Prechter graduated from Yale in Psychology ... not Economics, or even a useful scientific field. Credit has a supply-demand curve. If "interest rates rise," more supply of credit will be forthcoming because the yield is more attractive. Nothing about that process implies a deflation. Only widespread defaults, uncountered by gov't bailouts, would induce deflation. Bob Prechter's insights into mass psychology are usually worthwhile. But his persistent refusal to educate himself about the funny-mentals of finance handicaps his effectiveness as an anal cyst. This argument could go on forever -- or at least till the whole thing becomes obvious. "If "interest rates rise," more supply of credit will be forthcoming because the yield is more attractive." But Rising interest rates make borrowing less attractive. This decreased demand slows credit/money growth in the system. Less money is deflationary. IMO the Fed has been building a cushion in this past year of slight growth so that in an emergency situation, they will be able to flood the system with money to try to stem the outflows from the banks. It ain't gonna work, baby. ************* BTW Diesel up another whopping 3.9 cents to an all-time high of $2.189 and gas is up another penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Opening in 5 minutes until 1/2 past the hour could come early-this could be the one-Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Calculus, this is not an "easy money" period, it's a Slut Money period. I just can't take all these pimped cars with neons and flashy wheels. Everything looks slutty to me right now : Homes, 12-yr old girls, cars, music, television shows.. Wanna know why everything is so "slutty" just now?They get it from their leaders--- after all the neo-cons are just the well-paid sluts of the arms manufacturers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 There are so many freaking disconnects in this pos they call a mkt. Look at cdwc and ibm? ANd hello, the homebuilders? WTF have they not been cut in half? Pure, intentional haywire theory. Crush oil, then reverse it. Crush the Ten Year, then Reverse it. Ramp gold, then reverse it. Crush the dollar, then reverse it. Stop clearing, baked fresh daily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 IN the oh-by-the-way category MMC is getting ripped for another 9% AIG following behind -2% These two are huge players in the derivative sandbox. Counterparty risk is directly related to capital base. Market continues to believe it's possible to by insurance after your house catches on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Energy price increases should be reflected big time in the next CPI release. A weak Christmas and business spending cycle toward the end of the year should result in much lower margins and lower corporate profits. We shall see how this unflolds, but it has the potential to put the squeeze on businesses in the Fourth Quarter and into 2005.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Here comes oil... yesterday they brought it back to even, then crushed it again. What'll it be today, Al? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Incidentally I think the phrase 'Hotel California Hedge Funds' is absolutely brilliant, so true as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the mainstream press (those not already bought and paid for) start picking up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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