Hanky Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 Puplava and Wood calling top in oil Didn't Wood say commodities topped out late last year too? Anyway I hate it when these guys completely and totally ignore simple support and resistance and use the most esoteric and unreliable TA to base their conclusions i.e. sentiment and inter-market non-confirmations. So let's look at what really matters: THE OIH now as gold did at $375 has a wonderful and extremely tradable, massive supportive confluence at the even $100 level. Anyone not in would need to enter a larger degree pull-back to this area. A breakdown below it would be the first red flag causing me to unload my OIH position and indicate a much longer term sideways market was at hand, similar to the HUI after 2003. But So far we are in a strong bullish wave with no sign of break down. I don't even really see a "blow off" type of move yet that likely will happen before the break down. But anyway picking tops in strong bull markets is a loosing deal unless you get clear blow off signals such as huge exhaustion gaps and 9 - wave manic impulses fitting fib extensions. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 WTIC key supportive confluence clearly at $55. Break down below this turns me cautious but no way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted October 23, 2005 Report Share Posted October 23, 2005 massive supportive confluence at the even $100 level. Anyone not in would need to enter a larger degree pull-back to this area. Look at $100 level for someone wanting to enter or add. If price hits the ellipse I will post and that would be an ideal entry point. I am still fully vested and have not sold any. Small degree FR/FF (full wave retracement) so we can expect a IT corrective phase is underway and time to look for supportive confluences to enter and add NOT SELL. Still looking for crude to bottom in around $55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted November 13, 2005 Report Share Posted November 13, 2005 Short update ....nothin' new.... still looking OIH $100 / crude $55 Another double top in with RSI bearish divergence, last too resulted in a 1.6*A - C wave below ...hmmm puts us at @100 See if this fractal iterates a third time... Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted December 4, 2005 Report Share Posted December 4, 2005 OIH never dropped to a comfortable entry @100. Looks like a big expanding triangle here which rarely offer an easy way to get in... Crude did drop nicely in very close to $55 though...I continue to see that as critical support at this stage... a decisive violation of it would be a welcome relief for the 2006 economy but so far the energy stocks are saying crude will be staying above it. I continue to hold a large portion of my portfolio in OIH. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted February 4, 2006 Report Share Posted February 4, 2006 Sorry I have not updated this in a while but been too busy with gold market and I am fully in this more than I originally planned but it has paid well...look back at beginning posts where we entered OIH back in the 65-75 level. So we have a double bagger plus here now pushing 150... This is the first time in this whole move I am getting a bit concerned. We are unquestionably in parabolic mode here and if I have chose the correct seed wave we hit the 4.250 mania extreme extension on wave 7 of the typical 9 wave "super-impulse." I have shown this behaviour over and over in indexes such as the HHH. I now hear soaring energy prices as being widely accepted now and even the president calling us oil addicts...my friends this is a bad sign for those of us long but even moreso for the poor suckers that are just getting in now. I commented last year we will get a larger degree correction here and have been looking for it to start this year (2006). We need some price confirmation and we still have waves 8 down and 9 up but I think we may get a divergent double top probably a common 2B with the second one a somewhat higher high as the final blow off... Anyway I will be taking profits as this unfolds probably in the next few months. There are a few OSX stocks showing EW patterns that may continue upwards and maybe even have huge blow offs after the index goes flat... The max downside I would expect here would be a move back to just over 100 on the OIH during this correction. And I am not at all claiming an end to the energy or commodity bull just a larger degree corrective phase starting this year probably April-June. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted February 4, 2006 Report Share Posted February 4, 2006 Ohhh crude itself looks like it still has room to run and I do believe it will make new highs but 78-82 should be a substantial top for the ensuing correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted February 18, 2006 Report Share Posted February 18, 2006 My new highs in crude comment looks to be in danger... Really watching this for a break of that well-defined LT trendline. OIH also appears to be entering a longer term corrective phase. If both loose support I am looking for crude at sub-50 and OIH at @120 this year and energy prices moderating this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted February 18, 2006 Report Share Posted February 18, 2006 OIH FCS remains on SELL. I am looking to take profits on part if not all of my OIH positions held a long time (see prior posts here) if we break critical supports in Crude and OIH. I really think we are going to see this happen but will be nice at the pump for a change. WAY TOO MUCH TALK OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES...I rarely comment on sentiment indications much but really feel this whole thing is way out of control here and even as the price of over $40 dpb oil happened huge new supplies have entered the market and are coming to us now. Even the very fearful Iranian threat did not seem to spark much of a move in prices here. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted April 1, 2006 Report Share Posted April 1, 2006 OIH FCS signals a BUY We continue to hold a very large position in OIH with huge double plus bagged gains (see prior posts) I have decided to add a position in PSPFX on this signal to some recently added IRA funds. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted April 29, 2006 Report Share Posted April 29, 2006 OK been a month and the OIH/$OSX have rallied nicely with a pull-back here retesting the prior major high. Great place to jump in or add some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted April 30, 2006 Report Share Posted April 30, 2006 BIG TOP HERE???? I truly wish I was seeing something to make me believe so Apparently the stars are telling Arch Crawford we are doing so in OIL and GOLD this week. He has done fairly well on his calls lately I must admit. But on a fundamental TA basis I see nothing here indicating a top and much more likely after a retesting of the $70 area a surge to $80 which is much more likely place for a longer term top. A blow off type move could easily pop it to $100 briefly. Then again there is always the event risk that could set this thing parabolic with dire consequences I don't even want to imagine. But I have had my sights on $80 for a longer term top for some time and still will be watching this level very closely for MAY-JUNE top. MASSIVE LT support now at $60-65; the critical level for continuing to hold my LT energy investments. HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 17, 2006 Report Share Posted June 17, 2006 OIH FCS remains on SELL. We now have decisively dropped below the major uptrend line and appear to be testing it from below as resistance. First sign we may get a resumption of the uptrend would be to get back above this line, next of course would be an FCS buy signal! BUT I now think we will see 60-65 before 80 which was never quite hit The highs for the equity markets, crude, and gold all are in for the year. HANK I have been posting the OIH signals on my HUI/gold thread and look for them there not here in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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