bubbadropping Posted December 12, 2004 Report Share Posted December 12, 2004 Hank, thanks alot for the analysis. Appreciate it much. best. b.d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 2, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2005 Crude has now completed a FR/FF so we definitely have the potential for further downside prices in place now with 35-36 next support. I have previously stated I did not think sub-40 crude would ever last long again and still have technical reason to expect this. Best case would be an extended range 35-50 for 2005 with dips sub-40. Most unlikely would be a persistant decline but if 35 gets decisively penetrated we could have a sustained LT downtrend in place, there is a downsloping H&S formation that projects to 25! Maybe this will be what rescues 2005 from what makes it hard to imagine being a majorly up year as the historical deccenial patterns suggest. Anyway the obvious price to watch for now is 40. Oil stocks showing good RS thus far also implies crude prices should hold up. So again my favored outlook is rangebound 35-50 for 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 OIH: I continue to be VERY BULLISH here! The inverse H&S that formed the handle of this large cup and handle has had its projection met. This consolidation on the daily looks very healthy. The Cup and Handle's target of course is much higher. I would only become concerned if we break the lower channel line and cup top trendline that are now very close convergent support. Crude has had a strong move up again carving out it's range but I doubt 50 will be breached...as I mentioned I see it being in a range for much of 2005 as long as no significant geo-political incidents push the panic button. This is very probable in the current environment but another reason to remain bullish. This is not a real good entry area and your stop loss would be pretty steep. HOpe some of you got in on prior notices. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted January 30, 2005 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2005 Crude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted March 5, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2005 OIH very high risk place to add now. At the 1.618 extension (XOP) of wave 1 and we popped over the channel...let this settle down a bit! But what a move. I expect trouble surmounting the even 100 level. Let you know if and when another lower risk entry sets up. We are now up over 40% on average from our entries. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted March 12, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2005 OIH very high risk place to add now Big bearish engulfing at the 1.618 extension...wait to see what buying op may appear on this larger degree decline. 85-88 looks like the sweet spot. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted April 16, 2005 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2005 OIH Update... OK into the "sweet spot" Have to watch this carefully now and see if it can showing some relative strength as the rest of the market tanks AND tradable reversal pattern for an ENTER/ADD. No reason to worry about bigger decline at hand...YET. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted April 17, 2005 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2005 Crude Update, My last comments basically said I was looking for a big range this year and doubted we ever will see sub 40 other than maybe one last brief dip stick move. Well, we got the dip but not much below 40 and then this move taking out the prior high definitely was a bit of a surprise and definitely turns me even more bullish here with the potential for even more new highs again this year. Watch for the the dip to 50ish and "handle" leading to a renewed strong move up. What we should hope for as far as for the economy's sake is taking the enormous supportive confluence @45 out to the downside. Unfortunately this is much less likely in an established LT BULL market. The auto stocks are getting completely demolished as V-8's and hemis are being touted endlessly in their advertising pitches. Already I am seeing the used car lot down the street building a huge inventory of 2004 SUV's now half what they sold for a year ago. Already the Asian auto makers have the jump on hybrids and are ready to pounce. Stupid American auto boys once again living in the past...better start reading Lee Iacoca again for ideas on how to get the government to bail ya. What a bunch of idiots...they better not dare ask me to save them! Driving my 2002 Volvo S80 = 28.5 mpg highway safely and cleanly and waiting for a bigger selection of hybrids before buying one. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted May 25, 2005 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2005 85-88 looks like the sweet spot. If you didn't do some buying in here...still not too late energy complex looks poised to make a break for it...should get an OIH buy signal along with TL break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted May 25, 2005 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2005 Watch for the the dip to 50ish and "handle" leading to a renewed strong move up. Things falling into place for another surge upwards, can't say I am real happy to see this...but if you are in the market for a cheap SUV it may be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted June 10, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2005 If you didn't do some buying in here...still not too lateenergy complex looks poised to make a break for it...should get an OIH buy signal along with TL break. Hope you caught this one... I continue to hold somewhat uncomfortably sized position here already for huge gain... NOT time to sell any of it yet... Has anyone out there called the moves better on Crude and OIH??? But this only is confirmation to me that this is a runaway BULL... i.e. more bull than brains surely at work Can't believe some people still trying to call major tops here... We are at a third watch at 100 level... If it breaks it will be a huge move... If we fail it is going to indicate a long period of patience for the next move and we could have a fairly substantial pull back. So very risky to enter now...but be patient there will certainly be more chances to jump in with lower initial risk... Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted August 11, 2005 Report Share Posted August 11, 2005 this is a runaway BULL... OIH now officially a double bagger!!! Hope you all been enjoying the ride... Hard to tell someone not on board to get in right here... Just chill...more ops with come up as this thing goes parabolic but the ride will get much wilder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted August 11, 2005 Report Share Posted August 11, 2005 Things falling into place for another surge upwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted September 3, 2005 Report Share Posted September 3, 2005 Things falling into place for another surge upwards <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Multiple fib projections to $80+ Energy markets just starting to heat up again. I believe we are unquestionably in a "third wave" Appears we have entered a second more accelerated impulse @50 SUV obsolescence rapidly approaching. Ised lots full of them...my assistant who just purchased hers last year for 24,000 was quoted 12,000 to trade in. Used lots here starting to get jammed up with excursions and tahoes... Traders asnd investors not in energy in some form NOW are gonna continue to miss out in a very big way. Now immense support at $55... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted September 5, 2005 Report Share Posted September 5, 2005 OIH showing common 3 stage parabolic... In the early part of the 3rd move...usually the stongest in commodity related markets...not even close to a .318 time extension of previous leg or equality with the prior impulse price wise. And remember is this just the first subwave of a much larger bull market? Reasons Mr Hanky remains very bullish here but hard to jump on this if your not already in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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