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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, July 6


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:D Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, served with political barbs and what-not at B4 the Bell! :D B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about what ever members think affects that - in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge.

 

This last week, the bulls seem mired in some kind of tar pit from which they can not escape. It looks like that will continue this week. :)

 

For new forum members, the Rules of Engagement:

 

During trading hours, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM eastern US time, please try to keep off-topic stories to a short size - or just provide a link to your discussion on LOB, Political Stool, whatever... Also please avoid negative comments about fellow posters. Make up your own mind about the credibility of various media sources linked here and do your own due diligence on individual stocks and trading techniques. If you don?t like someone?s views, skip to the next post! Tanks! ;)

 

Continuing our weak-end debate, more on politics and the economy:

 

Bye-Bye, Bush Boom

By PAUL KRUGMAN

 

Published: July 6, 2004

 

When does optimism ? the Bush campaign's favorite word these days ? become an inability to face facts? On Friday, President Bush insisted that a seriously disappointing jobs report, which fell far short of the pre-announcement hype, was good news: "We're witnessing steady growth, steady growth. And that's important. We don't need boom-or-bust-type growth."

 

But Mr. Bush has already presided over a bust. For the first time since 1932, employment is lower in the summer of a presidential election year than it was on the previous Inauguration Day. Americans badly need a boom to make up the lost ground. And we're not getting it.

 

When March's numbers came in much better than expected, I cautioned readers not to make too much of one good month. Similarly, we shouldn't make too much of June's disappointment. The question is whether, taking a longer perspective, the economy is performing well. And the answer is no.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/06/opinion/06KRUG.html?hp

 

15 Miles Offshore, Safeguarding Iraq's Oil Lifeline

By JAMES GLANZ

 

Published: July 6, 2004

HOR AL AMAYA OIL TERMINAL, Iraq, July 1 ? The oil wealth that Iraq is counting on as its best hope for a stable future flows through rattling pipelines to lonely, rusting depots 15 miles offshore, so isolated that an armada of American, British and Australian warships is circling them to prevent the threat of waterborne suicide attackers.

 

Even little fishing dhows that ply the waters of the Persian Gulf have been guarded against, since attackers in three boats sped toward Khor al Amaya and its larger sister terminal, Al Basra, and blew themselves up on April 24.

 

The vulnerable site is crucial to Iraq's economic future, and an attack could be catastrophic to the environment as well as the Iraqi oil industry, American military and industry officials say.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/06/internat...t/06OIL.html?hp

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The only resolution I can see is to split the country in half and let those who believe in a free lunch go ahead and pay for it. The other half can go to work whittling government down to the right size and enjoy the true prosperity that can come when you get rid of that 1000 pound gorilla riding on your back.....

 

Come back in a hundred years and see which society is thriving and which has joined the dust bin of history.

 

Why wait 100 years? We already have a place like that. It's called Mississippi. And if a working mother and father earning just above minimum wage can't afford to take their sick baby to the doctor, too fornicateing bad. Let the kid die. This country has too many poor children anyway. Hell. Let's face it. The poor are the cause of all our problems. Let's just get rid of them.

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Martin Hutchinson spots the link between rising rates and federal deficits:

 

Federal spending appears to have grown only 4.5 percent per annum in fiscal years 2000-2003, but that low figure results from a decline of 13.4 percent per annum in net interest payments. With interest rates headed back up, and the deficits themselves adding substantially each year to Federal debt, that particular holiday from history has come to an end, and the true growth of 7-8 percent per annum in Federal spending will be revealed.  Since nominal GDP has grown at only 4.4 percent per annum in the four years to the first quarter of 2004, considerably slower than federal non-interest spending, and Congress shows no sign of acquiring fiscal discipline, it's certainly not obvious that the deficit is about to decline. After all, the Medicare prescription drug benefit kicks in full force in fiscal 2006.

 

Significantly, the economic statistics over the last couple of months show an economy that is not in an early stage of a long and healthy rebound, but in the latter stages of a short and unstable up-tick, like 1971-73.  Inflation is clearly rearing its ugly head again, while Friday's unexpectedly weak jobless data suggests that the economy's recovery may well peter out far below full employment, as the artificial stimulus of ultra-low interest rates is withdrawn. However, as is well known, any weakening in the economy automatically produces a severe effect on the federal finances, causing the budget deficit to yawn ever wider.

 

The Fiscal Crisis of 2005

 

What he says about taxes is too horrible to even quote here. But read it if you dare ... and keep a puke bag close by ...

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SPX fucutures at 1119 now. This could get really ugly w/ people doing what I was thinking of doing: dong at close Friday to game the "inevitable" post-holiday opening spike.

 

Still could happen if 990N gets over his holiday hangover in the pre-market. If not, scared longs, now losing at the same old game, could drop this like a rock.

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Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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Open your Goldmoney account today. I did! Goldmoney, a better way to buy gold. Goldmoney is an official sponsor of your Stool Pigeons Wire message boards.

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Guest yobob1

Looks like 990N got the Viagra and the Valium mixed up.

globex.png

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Uncle "Peg Leg" Bucky continues his one man game of "ring around the rosie"

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Oil is back above $39 as of this post. My take is supply concerns (Yukos, Iraq, Saudi), though some are saying demand.

 

Gold and Silver idling around, with gold being above the 2:1 platinum ratios and silver still a screaming buy at it's current 66:1 ratio to gold. One of these days Alice, Pow........to the moon.

 

We can rebuild him. We can make him faster and stronger with nifty telescopic eyes. The saga of the 6 million dollar coffeemaker. Faced with a dead Braun coffeemaker, I began the hunt for a replacement. Three simple requirements: cone type filter, auto shut-off, and a high watt element for quick brewing. Guess what - nobody makes it, at least not without getting a truck load of "other" features I don't need or want. The closest, not suprisingly was another Braun. In fact it looked identical to the current unit except for a high tech control panel with tiny buttons. All for only $70. Hey I just want it to make coffee, not do my taxes. I probably would have paid that for an identical replacement, but I decided to explore another avenue. A quick autopsy revealed a simple on-off switch failure. which of course is a unique switch with the chance of obtaining one slightly worse than Easy Al raising the fed rate to 10% this morning. So after studying the simple circuit and a quick trip to Radio Shack, for $6 I found a handsome 10 amp rocker switch and a 1/4" 120 volt neon pilot lamp. I also found a large hollow space high up on the side of the unit well away from the heat and coffee slop of the original down low up-front location. 30 mintues, and $6 and we're back in business. Interestingly the guts of this unit were much more robust and well made than the guts of other coffeemakers I have disassembled, though I didn't pay a high price initially (about $25 6 or 7 years ago). German engineering - built in Mexico, but to German specs. All of the other brands, Mr. Coffee, Procter-Silex, Black & Decker, GE, etc.,etc., built in China of course.

 

First of the month, combined with 4th of July had Wal-Mart packed to the rafters. The other 4 stores I visited were relative ghost -stores. Our local mall has an occupancy rate of under 25%. I kid you not. It's empty with only the Bon-Marche left as an anchor store, and a smattering of dying small stores. Meanwhile directly across the street another 100,000 square feet of mini-mall madness is under construction and 1/4 mile down the road another similar sized project has just had it's foundation poured. The amount of vacant retail that will occur over the next 10 years is staggering. Already within 5 miles of my store there are 2, and soon to be 3, huge furniture stores vacant. A brand spanking new Rite-Aid store that was open less than a year and now vacant for about 2 years. The bust that will occur in real estate will not be limited to residential.

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HiHat- Many tanks! But your Paypal subscription will renew automatically if it isn't cancelled. You may end up paying twice. I suggest you check your Paypal account. If it is still active, I can refund the new payment.

 

Any subscribers having a question as to whether your sub may have been cancelled by Paypal due to an expired credit card should go to Paypal and look up the subscription status in your Paypal account. If it has been cancelled, simply send me an email and I will send you instructions for renewal at your existing rate.

 

In the future, please email or PM me with customer service issues. Also, many of your questions may be answered in the FAQs at http://www.capitalstool.com/subscribe.htm

 

Many tanks for your support!

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Guest yobob1
The only resolution I can see is to split the country in half and let those who believe in a free lunch go ahead and pay for it. The other half can go to work whittling government down to the right size and enjoy the true prosperity that can come when you get rid of that 1000 pound gorilla riding on your back.....

 

Come back in a hundred years and see which society is thriving and which has joined the dust bin of history.

 

Why wait 100 years? We already have a place like that. It's called Mississippi. And if a working mother and father earning just above minimum wage can't afford to take their sick baby to the doctor, too fornicateing bad. Let the kid die. This country has too many poor children anyway. Hell. Let's face it. The poor are the cause of all our problems. Let's just get rid of them.

Obviously it is the rich that are the problem. Let's get rid of them. For 40 years our government has poored (sic) money into social engineering. Are we any better off or have we created a morass that the poor cannot escape by making them dependent on government. By the way Doc, according to the government I am below the poverty line and I am eligible for subsidized housing, food stamps and lord knows what else. Of course they would probably make me sell my Ferrari. :lol:

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The only resolution I can see is to split the country in half and let those who believe in a free lunch go ahead and pay for it. The other half can go to work whittling government down to the right size and enjoy the true prosperity that can come when you get rid of that 1000 pound gorilla riding on your back.....

 

Come back in a hundred years and see which society is thriving and which has joined the dust bin of history.

 

Why wait 100 years? We already have a place like that. It's called Mississippi. And if a working mother and father earning just above minimum wage can't afford to take their sick baby to the doctor, too fornicateing bad. Let the kid die. This country has too many poor children anyway. Hell. Let's face it. The poor are the cause of all our problems. Let's just get rid of them.

Obviously it is the rich that are the problem. Let's get rid of them. For 40 years our government has poored (sic) money into social engineering. Are we any better off or have we created a morass that the poor cannot escape by making them dependent on government. By the way Doc, according to the government I am below the poverty line and I am eligible for subsidized housing, food stamps and lord knows what else. Of course they would probably make me sell my Ferrari. :lol:

The solution is to allow more Canadians in on TN visas :)

 

I contribute to social security, medicare, and unemployment but will be unable to claim any of those benefits should the need arise since upon losing my job I am required to exit the country within 30 days.

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Doc.........they notified me awhile back that my credit card experired

and to update........i did not..........i only was not sure when in july

annual..was up...............................................................................

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Twig-

 

You would still be entitled to your social security check. Make sure to leave them your forwarding address. :lol:

 

Yobob-

 

The poverty line for a family of 4 is around 13K I believe, and hasn't been changed in many years. The only social engineering we have had in the last 3 years has been tax breaks and special deals for corporations. The working poor still can't afford health care. The elderly still can't afford essential medications. And our government says it is a crime to import medicines from Canada because Canadian drugs are not safe.

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