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IDS World Markets Mon 26th October 09


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The Hanging Judge – Professional Edition

by Lee Adler, Sunday, October 25, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The market left us in suspense on Friday. There were lots of clues, but not enough to make an arrest, let alone find the market guilty of topping out. Yours truly is a hanging judge, and being so inclined I am, naturally, leaning in favor of conviction. There is the small problem that I have sent a few innocent men to jail in recent months, so I am concerned about punishment from the market’s disciplinary committee. You know how that works. With that in mind, here is a review of the evidence as I, the hanging judge, see it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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About Mr Widget - I do have two problems preventing me from seeing it at work:

 

1. I'm behind firewall

2. I have no administrative access to install silverlight and I doubt my manager will approve the ticket to install it, and how I would explain him why I need it?

 

So, if anyone feels that he sees something interesting at the Mr Widget chart please do not hesitate to post the picture. There are other people like me to appreciate your time spent.

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w?s=^AORD

 

 

Still rangebound. All Ords closed -0.4% with sectors off their intraday lows. REITS lost the most, -1.3% followed by Miners and Materials, both -1%. IT did a bounce, +1.1% with Consumer Staples, Telecomms and Utilities all +0.3%.

 

Little movement in Asia: China flat, India -0.5% and Nikkers +0.6%. Honkers closed for a holiday.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

Footsie

 

image;size=239x110

 

 

DAX

 

image;size=239x110

 

 

CAC 40

 

image;size=239x110

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OK, I still think that we may have one, two more days with up move, a little bit of it, but still UP move or sideways. Im still thinking about 27 to 29 for the correction to come. Please keep in mind that in wednesday, 28 OCT (as far as I remember ), Merkel will sign a coalition paper. So A correction may start at 28 or at 29 OCT.

 

There is a lot of macro data this week with USA GDP at 29 OCT.

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Australian Third-Quarter Producer Prices Rise 0.1%

 

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid to Australian producers rose less than economists forecast in the third quarter as the nation’s rising currency cut the cost of imported goods.

 

The producer prices index advanced 0.1 percent from the second quarter, when it fell 0.8 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.3 percent gain. The index rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

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Geithner Widens Bills-to-Bonds Gap With New Sales

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plans to lock in near record-low borrowing costs in 2010 may mean a second year of losses on longer-term bonds.

 

After selling $1.9 trillion of short-term securities to finance President Barack Obama’s efforts to end the worst recession since the 1930s,the Treasury plans to lengthen the average due date of its outstanding debt to 72 months from a 26- year low of 49 months. That may mean boosting sales of 10- and 30-year bonds by 40 percent over the next year to $600 billion, according to FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee, driving down prices of longer-term securities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=auBVY_IxvAk4

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"“Markets are very vulnerable to an end of quantitative easing,” said Smithers, 72, who recommended avoiding stocks in 2000 just as the U.S. benchmark entered a two-year bear market. “Central banks, they’ve got to stop some time and if that happens everything will come down.” "

 

"The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about 40 percent overvalued and headed for a drop as central banks pull back on securities purchases that pushed up asset prices, according to economist Andrew Smithers. "

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=ac1KaPxa0Bso

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Woke up this morning to see myself stopped out of GBPUSD (though I had a wide stop to give it room to work). Then they take it up. :angry:

 

Ah well! position was not large. So a small loss.

 

Long USDCHF with a wide stop. Wanta give it plenty of room to work.

 

If this dollar carry trade starts to unwind as many people are talking about, I want to have a few positions in the mkt that will ride the wave.

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Looks like they want to gap Amzn up here to hit that $120. Not sure what the significance of that number is?

 

Might have to take a bit of heat on the short today.

 

Edit: up another 2% already pre-open. Boy, they can really pump these bubble stocks up. How many billions of dollars will be added to mkt cap today?

 

Guess I have to remember its a casino not a stock market.

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