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IDS World Markets Fri 10th October 08


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Nouriel Roubini calling for a complete melt down...

 

The US and advanced economies? financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.

 

On the real economic side all the advanced economies representing 55% of global GDP (US, Eurozone, UK, other smaller European countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Japan) entered a recession even before the massive financial shocks that started in the late summer made the liquidity and credit crunch even more virulent and will thus cause an even more severe recession than the one that started in the spring. So we have a severe recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in advanced economies.

 

At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the US and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow ? a V-shaped six month recession ? has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession ? like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble ? cannot be ruled out.

 

And in a world where there is a glut and excess capacity of goods while aggregate demand is falling soon enough we will start to worry about deflation, debt deflation, liquidity traps and what monetary policy makers should do to fight deflation when policy rates get dangerously close to zero.

 

At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash ? like the one-day collapse of 20% plus in US stock prices in 1987 ? cannot be ruled out as the financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown.

 

This disconnect between more and more aggressive policy actions and easings and greater and greater strains in financial market is scary. When Bear Stearns? creditors were bailed out to the tune of $30 bn in March the rally in equity, money and credit markets lasted eight weeks; when in July the US Treasury announced legislation to bail out the mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie the rally lasted four weeks; when the actual $200 billion rescue of these firms was undertaken and their $6 trillion liabilities taken over by the US government the rally lasted one day and by the next day the panic has moved to Lehman?s collapse; when AIG was bailed out to the tune of $85 billion the market did not even rally for a day and instead fell 5%. Next when the $700 billion US rescue package was passed by the US Senate and House markets fell another 7% in two days as there was no confidence in this flawed plan and the authorities. Next as authorities in the US and abroad took even more radical policy actions between October 6th and October 9th (payment of interest on reserves, doubling of the liquidity support of banks, extension of credit to the seized corporate sector, guarantees of bank deposits, plans to recapitalize banks, coordinated monetary policy easing, etc.) the stock markets and the credit markets and the money markets fell further and further and at an accelerated rates day after day all week including another 7% fall in U.S. equities today.

 

It goes on.....

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Doc,

I don't think he's ignoring everything else.  If he's not keeping up with news and trading he could easily be in front of the TV playing XBox.

698532[/snapback]

 

There's a difference? They both destroy human relationships and interfere with the acquisition of life wisdom.

 

GS at 90.60..

Is it true that Buffet don't believe in hedging?

698536[/snapback]

 

I thought he bought a preferred issue at 10%. I don't recall reading that he bought the common. Not that there's a difference at this point. Paper is paper.

 

Reminder:  Scam Week is next week

698551[/snapback]

 

All the hedgies and MM's who play those games are dead and buried. I think it's a non-issue.

 

Great, NOW a credit agency is Johnny on the spot with a rating.

 

"NEW YORK (AP) -- Credit ratings agency Moody's Investors Service late Thursday said

it placed a negative outlook on the long-term rating of Goldman Sachs Group Inc."

 

Sorry Moody's you are just a guilty as the rest.

698552[/snapback]

 

More guilty. Had they not committed massive fraud in their granting of triple A ratings to MBS and CDOs, this never could have happened. Those securities were junk and the only thing that enabled them to be sold at all was the phony ratings. The executives of moody, standard, and poor should be in jail.

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Starting to scale into QLD, SSO on that last drop in IRAs

 

not gonna get too crazy, but will add some more if we continue to slide later today....

698574[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the reminder on QLD....was thinking about it last night, but I am having a hard timekeeping my thoughts straight in this feeding frenzy

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