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Monthly Digger - June 2010


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GM, are we applying the NYA to gold bears? It appears the freak out level might apply to the GDX low on May 21. I just mentioned the GDX chart in the latest June Digger.

 

With that I'll say the new June thread is open and ready for all your insight.

 

Applying NYA to Gold Bears? Maybe you do have a point there Charmin. And why not? After all, there has been a very strong correlation demonstrated over the past year. :)

 

Yes, I agree, the "freak-out!" level DOES have a correlation to the Gold Stocks (GDX) as well as the Gold Bears.

 

In fact, if one were to superimpose the GDX onto that chart that I posted earlier, the one detailing the NYSE Declining Volume vs. Advancing Volume RATIO and CBOE Put/Call Options Index RATIO dovetailing confirmations of the bottoms (as well as tops) in the NYSE and S&P 500 indexes, one would be justified in applying this observation to the "All That Glitters Is Not Gold" Bears and consequently to the Gold Stocks as well.

 

Such a chart would show that in addition to the recent Gold Stock low on May 21st, you could also see the many other correlated lows including: the Aug 17th '09, Sept 01 '09, Oct 2, '09, Oct 28th '09, and Feb 5th 2010 lows. :)

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I don't know if anyone answered my question back on May 5 for GDX. Then I had asked if there would be a pullback to the 46 area. The answer came on May 21. If the 8 day ma begins to cue up from here one might get the idea that the 46 retest will provide even more confidence.

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/GDX_05_31_21_22_1275355321.png

 

Charmin, a proven slugger, you've certainly been knocking them out of the park with your "GDX retest" charts for some time now. Are you sure you're not a player for the Cubs and your name is not Sammy?

 

May I please check that bat you're holding? It's a little like smelling a freshly pulled cork of a vintage bottle of red wine . . it'll only take a second.

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nice chart. u feel oil will go up on bp spill gm? tnx chuck

 

Chuck, what I "feel" and what I think about the BP Oil "Blow Out" nightmare disaster in the Gulf are two different things. The huge disaster to the environment makes me "feel" sick. And I certainly wouldn't want to profit on account of such a disaster.

 

What I feel is that we can't handle deep-water offshore drilling. It's already clear the US government cannot handle the economy. It's also clear our politicians cannot see the problems staring them in their faces. I feel this disaster is yet more evidence we've been living on borrowed time.

 

If the same standards were applied to nuclear safety that have been applied to deep water offshore drilling, the nuclear plants would most likely have blown up by now. CANDU reactors for instance are FAR safer, and far more efficient than their US counterparts, but unfortunately their technology is fundamentally unknown here in the US. The politicians are asleep at the switch once again. The Chinese however have been buying up this Canadian technology on the cheap. Amazing? . . . sadly not.

 

Yes, sad to say, I feel our Universities are not graduating enough intellectuals who can handle the tough problems society is faced with today. Either the graduates are not being adequately trained or more ominously, they (the intellectuals) don't exist anymore, perhaps for other valid reasons.

 

Are people getting more stupid as one group of University of Chicago professors theorized? Are the complex engineering systems becoming too complex for little minds to handle?

 

Are the "fundamentals are useless!" opinions so adamantly expressed here corroboration of such a theory? Yes, I feel they may be.

 

What I "think" is that the problem is much worse than BP is letting on. That instead of a 1,000 barrels a day gushing from a riser still attached to the well head, possibly more like a 100,000 plus barrels a day blasting directly out of the well bore 7 miles to the East of the sunken rig coming from a 500 Million Barrel oil field!?? That according to the findings of one of the submersibles, a huge 400-feet thick oil slick has formed approximating the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island put together? Now if this were to be the case, it could take many months to fix the problem. And in the remote chance of a nightmare it couldn't be fixed? 500 Million / 100,000 = 5000 days / 365.25 = ~13 years of gushing oil into the Gulf? Meanwhile the oxygen levels begin dropping to the detriment of the wildlife. An over active hurricane season commences shortly generating hurricanes that hit the Gulf pushing the oil into the wetlands further wiping it out along with its wildlife.

 

What I think is that the BP employees who cut corners on the project are probably looking at jail time.

 

The effects it will have on the price of oil given the realities of "Peak Oil" should be obvious. The effects on oil sands plays, the same. The good projects will get snapped up that much faster. Those here that predicted Oil would fall back to $20 a barrel have rocks in their head.

 

A very troubling development indeed.

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Charmin, a proven slugger, you've certainly been knocking them out of the park with your "GDX retest" charts for some time now. Are you sure you're not a player for the Cubs and your name is not Sammy?

 

May I please check that bat you're holding? It's a little like smelling a freshly pulled cork of a vintage bottle of red wine . . it'll only take a second.

 

I don't think my RBI is making records, but I can thank GM for the roses - especially since his commentary and insight makes checking into the board a sweet place to visit.

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the long weekend took my mind off things

israel boards a turkish boat- this could produce unwanted results

in 80 the dow and gold traded 1:1

1229 breaks into the next cycle and signals gold is ready for an assault on the highs

gold is still way under owned.

@some point mining will be viewed as a good biz.

its still early in the game joe 6 still think gold is a bad investment, and when he wakes up, he wont be able to afford it

the smart guys are all in . john paulson has his own money in his fund.

seasonally july tends to be weak for gold

dharma

one last thought if you put your french curves onto a monthly gold chart, the shape of the parabolic is evident

the summer is seasonally weak for gold

gold vending machines

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/27/news/companies/gold_atm/index.htm

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I was out last week - just getting back in the saddle. Took a trip out to Californicate and bought a 1986 CUCV Chevy Blazer. Drove it over 2k miles from LA to Chicago = what a road trip! Wyoming is absolutely beautiful.

 

I also went by my numismatic dealer and picked-up a bag of pre-1965 dimes (90% silver). B) My chump change collection is now complete. I'd never been there before - always dealt through deliveries. They were nice people and have a nice store. California Numismatics also has the lowest premiums, in case anyone is interested.

post-4028-12754150140426.jpg

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I love reading the Jackass.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2010/0526.html

 

"The gold cartel illicitly pushed down the gold price so that options expire worthless. Notice the cartel kept the gold price below the critical $1200 waterline until Tuesday afternoon. Poof, a heap of options go worthless, and whoosh, the gold price moves over $1200 in the wake of the criminal event. Some anal cysts actually made sneid comments like the gold traders "had it coming to them" or some such."

"The CFTC is just another Goldman Sachs office, obedient to their masters on Wall Street and the USDept Treasury. Referring to options expiration day of Tuesday May 25th, Jesse of the Cafe Americain said "Gold traded all day below 1200, at times rising to within fifty cents of the key strike price of 1200 where a large concentration of call options were clustered. Well, since the call options at 1200 have expired worthless, why bother using the energy to continue to suppress the price?" The games, tactics, and devices to suppress illicitly the gold price are fully out in the open. One must wonder if the CFTC officials are asleep. We know Larry Summers is asleep on the job."

"Each new round of Quantitative Easing and gold price suppression assures an even higher potential gold price as long-term forecast target. The official policies are ruinous, and even destroy capital, eroding capital formation, and circumvent job creation. The eventual gold target in my view has moved from $5000 to $7000 in the last few months. No remedy is in the works. No solution is even pursued. No liquidation of toxic assets is underway. More stimulus is planned for the USEconomy, as home foreclosures continue and bankruptcies continue and bank closures continue and lending is obstructed. The more money the syndicates and governments in partnership create in futility, the higher the gold target becomes."

"Word has come to the Jackass desk from the War Room itself, where important decisions were made in a series of meetings inside Germany. The new Northern Euro currency is finally in its formative stage. Contracts have been forged. Relationships with the more independent Central European central banks have been arranged. Market mechanisms with the commodity markets have been delegated to Finland. A role for Russia is being planned, source of many commodities. The timing of the new Northern Euro is planned for June 2011, with perhaps little if any formal news releases. The key element of the new Northern Euro will be its gold component."

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Wondering why gold stocks sucked so badly today and lately with gold back at its highs. In fact the double ETF sux ass too - HBU.TO, far from its previous high.

from the highs to the recent lows xau/hui only retraced a little more than 50% and today we had a dragon fly doji, in other words the market closed weak after being up all day. this is not bullish action. it has turned me cautious.seasonally, we are coming into a weak period also

just my 2c

dharma

just to be clear, i am very bullish longer term, we are splitting hairs here in the short term. i cut my margin back by 60% ,it never hurts to take a profit anyway.

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