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IDS World Markets Fri 24th October 08


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Emergency Rate Hike by the Vikings

 

"Denmark's central bank unexpectedly raised the benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to an eight-year high, showing policymakers will defend the krone even as the economy teeters on the brink of recession. "

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...tFC8&refer=home

 

They'll be begging to join the Euro when all of this is over.

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Good Morning and Welcome to the Crash of 08, Part Deux. My Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition headline from Wednesday night was a day early.

 

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The good thing is in a few days we are gona have oil for free.

<_<

 

703253[/snapback]

 

OPEC can't put a floor on oil prices with the decision to cut 1.5 million bbl. per day. And oil is an actual thing that the world needs to function. If supply cuts can't put a floor under the World's Most Necessary Item, what's going to put a floor under stocks and other "pieces of paper"? I'm watching Fox business, and these anal cysts still don't get it. It's not about "value" or "Dover Sole levels." It's about liquidating everything.

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OPEC can't put a floor on oil prices with the decision to cut 1.5 million bbl. per day.  And oil is an actual thing that the world needs to function.  If supply cuts can't put a floor under the World's Most Necessary Item, what's going to put a floor under stocks and other "pieces of paper"?  I'm watching Fox business, and these anal cysts still don't get it.  It's not about "value" or "Dover Sole levels."  It's about liquidating everything.

703259[/snapback]

 

Oil hit 10 Bucks in 1999, there was no official recession back then, the dollah was MUCH higher though.

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WOW!!! I just looked at the Yen for the first time in a few hours.... 91.52 after having gone as low as 90.96.

 

The last time the market looked like this in the morning was at the march lows. So a question if anyone wants to give advice. Seeing as I bought SPY yesterday(luckily not a leveraged fund) how much sense would it make to just hold it here. Even if we get a quick spike down to 6000 or some epic crash type scenario, I can't see staying down there for very long assuming its a multi day large event. Obviously the further it winds up going down the smarter it would be to sell on the open and then buy back lower, but my worry is that I wont buy back lower after I let this position go.

 

So I guess my question is...assuming I want to be in the market around these levels, how much sense would it make to try and time the market even further than I already have by selling and trying to get back in?

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Oil hit 10 Bucks in 1999, there was no official recession back then, the dollah was MUCH higher though.

703260[/snapback]

 

If this is not a problem for usa, this is gona be a problem for oil sands in canada, unless the us$ dollard just blows the roof and we export every drop.

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Many, many millions still holding onto that hope.  Our generation has never seen a Great Depression-style capitulation, where stocks are truly despised at the bottom.  I'm afraid we're about to.  :ph34r:

703252[/snapback]

 

I went out to lunch with a collegue. I'd shown him the trading triangle wednesday and said if whatever direction it breaks it, it will be strong. I believed it would be down and if long, add some stop losses as a precaution. Anyhow, told me his wife had talked him out of it as she believes they can only go up. Oh well, I think he'll be a whiter shade of pale today. His wife runs a mortgage brokerage business - zero business last month.

 

Same thing with another collegue who knows my positions but he is too lethargic and risk adverse to try something different. (ETFs instead of long only MFs). There again this is a guy who is 40 and still living at home ! He bought a house the other week !!

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If this is not a problem for usa, this is gona be a problem for oil sands in canada, unless the us$ dollard just blows the roof and we export every drop.

703262[/snapback]

 

The drop in oil has HUGE repercussions. A few months at these levels and the oil sands project will close down. Who is going to supply them with credit while they wait for the price of oil to recover?

 

Also many other marginal projects that will be shut down and others on the drawing board postponed.

 

All the remaining old timers in the industry will leave.

 

So in 2-3 years when we hopefully get some recovery happening there won't be any additional oil to fuel it and only a few people left who know how to turn it around!

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Lowest borrowing costs ever for the United States of America

 

"Treasuries rose, sending the yield on the 30-year bond to the lowest since regular issuance of the securities began in 1977 as spreading financial turmoil wiped more than $10 trillion off stock-markets worldwide this month. "

 

"Ten-year yields declined 17 basis points to 3.51 percent, and have fallen 43 basis points this week, the most since December 1987, on speculation government and central bank efforts to revive lending won't avert a global slowdown. "

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...emaY&refer=home

 

Dr. Evil's plan is working.

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