Guest Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 It's a couple of things Ned-They go thru a rebalancing in January like SPX and they are in the middle of that now-mostly weaker dollar aids their exports and boosts the price of Toyota, Nissan et al most of tonites strength comes from their tech sector who with a weak dollar get a decided price advantage in a shrinking market. trade Safe! b4, I think your reasoning is backwards. A strong dollar aids Japanese exports. It makes their products cheaper when sold in weak yen. A weak dollar helps our exports. It makes our products cheaper. I think that is the point of having a weak dollar. It helps our balance of payments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 TE, all the interviews on Ikes' site tonight are on the ball and have this turd nailed for what it is - a turd. http://www.aegeancapital.com/freeservices/...marketviews.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Anita- re your post about everyone expecting a gap down and a rally-not all of us certainly not me-time and circumstance have brought us to where we are- cycles and e waves have done their work-what is about to happen will profoundly change every ones atitude about the market even ours-the best of times are about to become the worst of times. It will soon be Hypertiger time. I'm not calling for doomsday-life goes on but it's going to be a hell of a lot harder to make money in the markets with the exception of GOLD and possibly commodities. A lot more bankruptcies, a ton more unemployment etc. Fart see's light at the end of the tunnel with semi's-I hope he's right but more than likely it's an oncoming train. No rally tomorrow! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Duke- you are right a weak dollar helps exports but kills importers who have to pay MORE for the product- more $ per unit is win for the japanese auto boyz. trade safe! p.s. a weak dollar raises prices to the american consumer and America imports virtually everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 What i really want to know is what how to dress at a berry gathering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Hey Guys, I deeply respect the opinions on this board and consider some of you to be the best damn market timers I've ever read. I believe you are correct in that we are at the cusp of another major decline in the market and it makes absolute sense to be short technically and fundamentally. However,having said that I want to say one other thing, if Saddam Hussein leaves Iraqi without a bomb being dropped I would not want to be short this market. This would be particularly true in any fund that I had to wait until the end of that day to sell. I don't know if the rest of you have this in the back of your minds as a possiblity, but I wouldn't write it off, NO SIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 We've got a mixed day here, neither bullish nor bearish really. Sort of one of those hanging out in space days with a lack of convincing action either way. The 'point of recognition' hasn't quite reached most punters but it will in the not too distant future. Golds are green but not getting overexcited. In regard to the semiconductor debate I'm thinking that tech stocks will be dumped once the bullmarket in gold is taken seriously by traders and investors alike. The techs have already had their day and will start behaving more like 'normal' stocks and the heatmappers will move the casino to the gold market imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 GTN, I have thought about that about as long as poo thinks about getting honey (a long time). The cycles should call for a March High. My guys think it will invert to a March low. If however, hussain in the membrain leaves Iraq, we could be lookin at NO inversion and a March high near 990 spx,which would call into question, by the T/A people, the bear market. What if he is exiled to Lybia? Kaddafi, insane and usama all at the same place? There would definetly be attacks on our soil by ali baba and his fourty terrorists, IMHO. As of now, I see a march low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr. casual Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 My sources in Iraq confirm that Saddam lurks regularly in Stooleville, and is large short. He will resist any exile until the next big down leg and then he covers and bolts. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Ha, good one Mr C. Screw Hussein, I could give a crap what that outcome is - not influencing my trading one bit. Won't influence the market that much either - not in any lasting way. Aussie, you beat me to the punch on SOX. Its a 90 year old Hollywood actress has-been and its ultimate demise will be to flat-line well below 200 and end in a whimper. No soup for you - one decade - next sector! Bubble gluts don't come back that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 GTNWORSE - I don't have the link, but the US wants SH and 100 top Iraq officials to go. That is why there has been no coup, there is no one acceptable to replace him. But who knows, GWB seems to have a habit of demanding much more than is really in the end acceptable to him (ie the convoluted dividend tax cut plan). Maybe going short with out of the money calls as insurance is the way to play, but i'm sticking with a simple strategy of 50% BEARX and 50% gold issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 GTN: Right, best edumacation this night compared to years of sop. Bush's henchman will find other windmills to chase, not to worry SH is just a kernel in the stool, least of our worries and can only be played to the sheeple. If anything we are out the cost of shipping men and weapons around the world until we divide up the oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Meanwhile down here at the office, the new job orders are flowing in from Silicon Valley for Semiconductor professionals... An amazing turnaround for sure. Is it possible you are finding replacements for all those executives that are cashing out and leaving "for family reasons". There seems to be a lot of them lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Hey Guys, However,having said that I want to say one other thing, if Saddam Hussein leaves Iraqi without a bomb being dropped I would not want to be short this market. This would be particularly true in any fund that I had to wait until the end of that day to sell. I don't know if the rest of you have this in the back of your minds as a possiblity, but I wouldn't write it off, NO SIR. GTNWORSE, You are right on and I think the market will react to the daily news of him leaving. IMHO Bush wants him dead and will find a way rather than let him leave. Also, Sad Damn is power mad and I don't think his people matter when he makes his decisions so he won't leave just to avert a war and save the lives of possibly millions. With those wto maniacs involved the future looks bleak. Duke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Where is FM? When you see him, tell him to keep chains and hot irons in the back of his mind until he spills all the beans on techie hiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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