Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 The Fed does not control interest rates. They only control the Fed Funds rate. The 1 year T-bill is already up nearly 100 basis points. The rate has more than doubled since last summer and is up 75 basis points in the last 6 weeks. The Fed is irrelevant. And they know it. For the past three years officials at the Fed have been frightened to death. They have resorted to all means at their disposal (basically repos and jawboning) to persuade us that they are in charge. I know people who work at the N.Y. Fed (otherwise known as market control central). The only bull market is in underwear as they need several changes a day. Doc's right. Forget the wizard and focus on those people behind the curtain. The only bull market is in underwear as they need several changes a day. The fed may have had some credibility before the long bond blew up Now they have none ... Deer frozen in the headlights.. As Doc said ...panicing by lack of action..they cant do a thing because they know the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Can we finally say goodnight to 10,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 MO looks like a potential short squeeze to me. Then again Im talking my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Someone really really likes COF probably the MOST interest sensitive stock trading today Does anyone take 2 seconds to connect the dots...????????????????? What am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 You dare question herr Doktor??!!? Doc's is right.? The fed has never led, only followed.? Given their recent tack of endless jawboning (nearly 3 times the normal rate of speeches, etc,) they too apparently have realized that they have no ammo left.? There is no virtuous circle of supplying endless liquidity either. I question everybody, - including myself. ! After all we are not talking about the fundamental laws of the universe or something - right? It was intended as a joke. Of course everyone's position or opinion is open to question - except mine and Hyper's However, there are no demonstrable cases where the fed led the curve. In every instance I'm aware of, they only followed where the markets led. The higher the price of oil goes the more there is to drill for. But the world economy, and the USD in particular, revloves around "cheap" energy. As the previously posted dieoff snippet states the real problem comes when it takes more energy to obtain the product than it can produce. At that point oil is done. We may well be there. There is no viable alternative. The only thing that can reverse the current course would be a sudden dramatic global depopulation or an economic collapse. The odds of the first happening are miniscule while the second may be inevitable Oil in 4-5 years? Somewhere between zero and the price of unobtanium. My best guess is the economy will reduce the pressure on oil prices and it's quite possible oil could be significantly lower unless production capability drops sharply and exceeds my guess on demand drop. Yobob1. Big Oil may be suggesting that we are pretty close to being 'there'. Don Coxe's comment recently on BP now behaving more like an 'energy trust' than the big explorer as in days past. That is, BP's current attitude is - "sure we'll explore for the Oil - but only if it costs us $20/barrel". Now, whether that decision reflects 'terrorism cost' or 'energy cost' at this point is an open question. I suspect both factors are at issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Someone really really likes COF probably the MOST interest sensitive stock trading todayDoes anyone take 2 seconds to connect the dots...????????????????? What am I missing here? COF raised to overweight by Morgan Stanley - maybe they got a call from Biggowsky as he lounged on his pool float!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 They are pulling out all the stops to protect the beloved BKX I am a little concerned and lowereing stops Now COF doing a second stage liftoff Im sure the put writers are pissed We can repair that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 RCL could be looking over the edge from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 They are pulling out all the stops to protect the beloved BKXI am a little concerned and lowereing stops Now COF doing a second stage liftoff Im sure the put writers are pissed We can repair that! COF is toast. Criminals scamming it for all its worth before pulling the plug. They know what is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted May 13, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 So far, the Fed has actually reduced the repo pool today. Let's give them some more time for their tricks, but it seems like they are strangely stepping back from this developing mess so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Thanks Henny Penny I cant wait to exit this joke of a market .. Deceit and lies continue to overcome sound analysis and research. More criminals arriving by the day. The day upgrades get sold I will dance for a week My disgust has never been at such levels. Pick any matrix darling that has been beaten up or lost its luster. An upgrade always follows They cant keep their filthy hands of anything Here comes the rally and the BKX Im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Window closed-a good one and we'll take it. Only think I don't like as soon as it closed it took off, that tells us the PPT is alive and working-can they fight the Astro-we'll see-keep tight stops! The Pig flies alone for awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henny Penny Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Thanks Henny Penny I cant wait to exit this joke of a market .. Deceit and lies continue to overcome sound analysis and research. More criminals arriving by the day. The day upgrades get sold I will dance for a week My disgust has never been at such levels. Pick any matrix darling that has been beaten up or lost its luster. An upgrade always follows They cant keep their filthy hands of anything Here comes the rally and the BKX Im out Patience is rquired. Remember the market is operating on the thesis of continued strong growth ( 4%+) and rising Fed Funds. Items like COF will go down when the strong growth hypothesis is shattered. This will also coincide with the dollar weakening and gold taking off. I am guessing we are probably a month or two away from the market revising its opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Ameriturd not taking my stiop orders. Tells me to "Please go to Review Orders to determine the status of this order." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted May 13, 2004 Report Share Posted May 13, 2004 Read on one of the forums (so many hard to remember) Prechter equated May 5 with Oct 5 1987? Looks like its very very similar. If so, today is the last up day before the crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.