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Sudden Freeze


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Anybody ever met some bombshell in the Bagel Shop?

 

She has all the ingredients.

 

Good looks.

 

Lots of charm.

 

Drives a stylish European convertible.

 

Liberal application of perfume and lingerie.

 

And you wonder why she's available.

 

You go for it anyway, and things are superb for awhile. You think you have hit the MotherLode. No fights, no arguments, constant sex, no hangups.

 

The suddenly, she freezes.

 

She won't return phone calls.

 

She hasn't shown up for work in days.

 

Then you find out she's in a coma, from an overdose of Vicadin. She can't talk to anybody, since she's in a deep depression and her brain has been totally fried for some reason. And its the third time this "Crash and Burn" scenario has played out with this chick.

 

A Sudden Freeze.

 

Wall Struck is no different.

 

This time, the HedgeFunds were gunning the Emerging Market Exotica. Especially the Russian Hooker Types. Fantastic returns were being made. No pullbacks. No scares. No credit blowups or problems. That Yukos' CEO incident was barely a blip.

 

Therefore, more leverage was employed as the HedgeHogs started Pyramiding their Positions.

 

Then, a Sudden Freeze. Another Relapse.

 

From today's Wall Struck Journal:

 

"Bond Market in Russia Faces Major Crunch"

 

"It has been less than six years since Russia's financial collapse sparked a violent selloff in global markets. This time it is Russian's corporate bond market, which has fallen hard, and trading in all of but the largest bonds has seized up."

 

"For the past week, they are just not trading at all", says Boris Ginzburg, head of fixed-income research for NIKoil Bank in Moscow.

 

"The J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Index has collapsed 5.5% in the space of 3 days, its worst performance in 2 years. The losses and lack of trading liquidity in Russian corporate debt are causing headaches for hedge funds and banks' proprietary trading desks in the U.S. and London."

 

"Many of these investors borrowed money to take bigger bets in positions in Russian corporates, and that they have been bid up to unsustainable prices by fnd managers scrambling to boost returns."

 

"Russia's smaller banks were among the biggest buyers, and some of them are pretty leveraged. They are looking at serious losses", says Jeremy Hawes, a Moody's bond anal cyst in London.

 

As usual, the infatuation with paper speculation continues. HedgHogs bailing off the losing trades in Russian bonds will simply find some other Exotica to chase in order to "catch up" by gunning some other type of instrument.

 

Rampant Bullhorning by the Tout Houses continues, evidenced by the Supermodel Upgrade this morning.

 

Anything and everything, necessary to keep 9000 mutual funds, hedgefunds, and Funds of Funds inside the Speculative Arena.

 

Fund flows are starting to go negative, but I suspect that this is the "smart money" getting out.

 

The dumb money, like the Corporate Drone Working Stiff living high on credit excess, will continue to funnel is 401(k) money into the Open Mouths of the Tout Houses, who continue to Bullhorn 24/7 about how "there is no inflation" or about the "productivity growth and Yearnings growth", yada, yada, yada.....

 

In the end, he'll realize that he has been Fleeced by the likes of Morgan Stanley, constantly running ads about how "rejiggering a portfolio" will raise $800,000 overnight to pay for the Cape Cod beach house.

 

Or the campy Harris Direct ads which show Casual Daytraders living in trendy lofts, punching out a few trades before they go walk their dog in the middle of the day while every one else is working at a real job.

 

Or the Matrix-Brainwashed Fumble Manager running his clients money out of the Home Office, using the Fidelity Professional Traders platform, walking around the office swinging the golf club, screaming at his subordinates in the Boiler Room to "dump it if it moves the wrong way", then immediately unloads all of his trading stress to go into the kitchen and hug his daughter and the blurry wife.

 

Its all a surreal dreamworld.

 

Watching the tape, looking out for the chronic TICK Blasts, spotting the Matrix Intervention Footprints, gunning any move on the 5-minute chart.

 

Enough of that rant......

 

Have a good weekend....

 

And now, a contribution from Shorty, embellished by Your Editor.....

 

one month from now....

 

June 14, 2004

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. blue chips edged higher with the Dow back above the 10,000 level once again as investors focused on positive earnings and economic data that underscored the strength of the economy, shrugging off higher oil prices that topped $69 per barrel which had caused recent profit-taking in stocks.

 

"The Fed's steady approach has reassured long-term investors they should keep buying" said Dr. Jack Schitt, Chief Asswipe at Merry Lynch in New York. "We still advise keeping 70% in stocks mostly in the housing sector, 20% in bonds, and 10% short gold futures."

 

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.00001% in April with the core index rising only 0.0000001%, beating expectations.

 

"Inflation remains in check", said Larry Kudlow from NBC.

 

However, unusual activity was reported on the CBOT, as Soybeans were limit up for the 7th day in a row and traded at another all time record high. anal cysts cited drought conditions, a rising amount of world hunger, and a rising flood of currency. The action was considered "commodity specific", and did not necessarily signal that inflation was a problem.

 

Market anal cysts also commented on the recent drop in mortgage rates, as the Federal Reserve unleashed a Derivative Cyclone to push out the short sellers in the bond market. Ben Bernanke was quoted at the NY Press Club as saying, "Speculators should not determine interest rates. We are in control. Rates will always be dictated by the Federal Reserve Board. We have unconventional methods suitable for overwhelming trillion dollar markets."

 

In earnings news, IBM beat by a penny, YHOO beat by a nickel, and AMZN beat by a dime, losing only $200 Million last quarter versus $300 Million in the previous quarter. The stock was up $17 on the day, closing at a new high for the year, as fund managers were seeking "bargains" on certain high growth stocks.

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Here's bad news for:

 

All those NCEN Loan Brokers living in Newport Coast, driving those Cadillac Escalades and Range Rovers.

 

All those Spec Builders in Manhattan Beach driving those F-350 Crew Cabs

 

All those Appraisers living in Santa Clarita driving the Chevy Yukons

 

All those Title Company Sales Reps driving those Mercedes S420s

 

3:13 Natural gas closes at $6.401, up 1.7% for week

3:14 Heating oil closes at $1.0409, up 2.4% for week

3:15 Unleaded gas closes at $1.4101, up 5.3% for week

 

Unleaded Gas.....

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Posted on: May 11 2004, 02:08 PM )

 

the first down from 2153 to 1897 is a perfect 0.618 out of 413, the rebounce very roughly matches 0.382 of 413, then from 207X to yesterday low is close to 0.5; A 0.5 move "deserves" a rebounce, but, let me say this way: if Nuts rebounce from here will have very bad consequence for bear; So, the down move seems not complete, today's rally may well be a "bump" alone the down hill

post-3-1084302604.jpg

 

Posted on: May 12 2004, 02:52 PM

 

inside bull's mind the economy recovery is so "obvious" so they are "willing" to sapre thier getting less and lesser lbullets. and it is logic to say the coming dip could not be deep (on Nutsduck 1740, 1848) and it takes time to grind to that level. after that..... (bulle thinks there is a rally)

 

Posted on: May 13 2004, 02:53 PM

 

market is grinding lower

Indeed. Nutsduck is grinding lower but still in the "regime" of FIB 0.5, small bounce and "struggle" is possible but no change for the middle term target

 

correction: 1848 should be 1828

 

chart posted early

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This one makes you think.

 

It was a year or so back that General Chavez remarked that the price of a barrel of crude (which is obviously a necessity) is very very cheap against the price of a barrel of most if not all luxuries.

 

1 barrel = 139 litres.

 

So even with some good discounts for bulk buying what's a barrel of Evian cost? What's a barrel of Pepsi cost?

 

Like I said it makes you think. I still go along with Mark and say they smash this sector in the short term but then as the great Margaret Thatcher once remarked 'you can't buck the market in the long run'.

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The real players in the oil market , unlike silver, are larger and more powerful than the futures speculators. This is the most important substance in the world - more than microprocessors, more than just about anyting other than water and food.

The huge geopolitical implications of oil dwarf the penny ante antics of the specs.

this is the real BIG game.

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epic rant wyndy....those feckin' commercials drive me nutz...

 

huff tuff.........have a gr8 w/e folks!

 

 

 

...ALL GOOD THINGS IN ALL GOOD TIME...

 

-r. hunter / j. garcia

My wife often says to me with a wink "Honey, are you shuffling our portfolio again?"

 

I reply "yes babe, we are tits short." or "I am scalping like a mother."

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From John Murphy's market message today...

 

"CPI AND PPI NUMBERS SURPRISE ECONOMISTS... The most frequently seen words in the financial press are "economists were surprised". It seems they're always being surprised by something. This week it was the "surprising" jump in the CPI and PPI inflation numbers. The fact that economists were surprised is a story in itself. It shows what happens when people ignore the clear messages being sent by the financial markets. And when they ignore the obvious. Take commodity prices for example. The CRB Index has been rising for two years and recently reached the highest level in a decade. Rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation."

 

Few paragraphs later:-

 

"Where have they been for the last few months as the market deterioration sent the same message. Long-term rates have jumped to the highest level in almost two years. Here again, economists told us there was no problem there because there was no sign of inflation. This week they suddenly started to take notice. That's why we look at forward-looking markets and not backward-looking economic numbers. Now, the only one left to convince is the Fed. Trouble is the Fed is populated by economists. "

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Continuation of John Murphy's message:-

 

"NASDAQ STILL UNDER 200 AVERAGE -- DELL DROPS... A week ago Thursday I wrote that the markets were undergoing three important tests. One was bond yields testing the high of last summer near 4.60%. Yields have broken through that level. Another was crude oil testing major resistance near $40. That level has now been surpassed. The third test was the ability of the Nasdaq market to stay over its 200-day moving average."

 

Sounds like a stoolie.

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1 barrel = 139 litres.

 

So even with some good discounts for bulk buying what's a barrel of Evian cost? What's a barrel of Pepsi cost?

Great point Calculus :)

 

I remember watching an interview with some pipe-smoking Kuwaiti gentlemen who said that oil was cheaper than water... and this was when oil was @ $27/barrel.

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