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Bulls Eat Turkey

 

Turkey Eats Bears

 

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Bong Dropped

 

Uncle Buck Smacked Down

 

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How is it that all ?near crashes? in the stock market are immediately Stick Saved?

 

How did stocks reverse from the morning Waterfall and get HeatMapped into the close? At the same time gold breaks out and goes completely vertical to make another stab through $400, and the HUI closes up 5% at an all time record high?

 

Maybe we have underestimated The Virtual Reality created by The Matrix. As Plunger suggests below, maybe the bond market, the stock market, and the credit markets have already ?crashed? a long time ago.

 

And what we have seen lately is simply a make believe world of phony Promise Ticket Trading in an Airball World controlled by supposed real time data feeds from The Matrix.

 

As long as too many people don?t sell, the game remains intact.

 

After all, the trillions of stocks, bonds, derivatives, and all the rest are gamed electronically. There is no real ?profits? until somebody sells and demands cash, and converts the cash to a hard asset.

 

Maybe that?s why gold is exploding unexpectedly, because there are Eastern Investors out there with the sixth sense, looking aghast at the rampant Western World Riverboating, Speculation, and Consumption, detecting that this whole scheme is a fake, and so they decide to go out buy physical gold.

 

But confidence in playing within The Matrix breaking.

 

That?s why we have 24/7 Bullhorning by Fed officials pronouncing that ?all is well?, with Wall Struck firms working overtime which chronic Bullhorning and Strong Buy recs on the most absurd stocks. It seems that the desperation, the futures jamming, the constant reassurances are reaching a crescendo.

 

In the old days of 1996, when we got 8.2% GDP, rampant consumer borrowing, skyrocketing commodities prices, the Fed would be in a complete panic and would be talking down the economy via ?Irrational Exuberance? speeches. Bond Market Vigilantes would be all over the case, jacking up T-Bone futures, frontrunning a potential for Banana Republic inflation.

 

As Soup said today:

 

If the economy is so bright, how come the short interest rates are at 1% and why are the moronic statists at the Fed bullhorning the economy 24/7? Things are so bad, and they are so desperate, things must be made to look good. Meglomania at its finest. The stock market is the Fed?s daily self assurance. The Fed can and will come in whenever it deems necessary. The TICK is the clue, +1000 and off they go. The Fed is very much alive and buying. Just have to accept the insanity. Stocks are going up, the alternative will not be tolerated.

 

But something is wildly out of control here.

 

Fear Gauges have imploded. I?ll continue the record setting freefall in the VXO posted below. History in the making.

 

I?ll let the other guys finish:

 

From Buddha:

 

Sad times at the Stool. Looks like I will be buying all the dips on up into the 2004 elections now. Revised strategy. Matrix in complete control regardless. Of course 10,000 Dow by year's end is a given but now as I look out over the shell shocked terrain I see little reason to beleive there will be any significant selling in ?04. Bush should win by landslide. All lies are affirmed, all truths denied. Black is White. White is Black. Debt? Who cares? Leave that to the 2008 Emperor. Valuations? Please. Waiting for valuations to come home and roost is like looking for BigFoot.

 

Its not that its even a Crack market anymore. Its a managed affair. Unless we see a significant 2nd Wave event I seriously doubt much of anything will destabilize the Pyramid over the next year. I very much doubt Al Green will raise interest rates in the run up to a sitting President's relection. He will merely continue to attack savings accounts and monetary frugality. Anyone note the insider trading just done by both the Government and the Pigmen on Monday? They front run the Consumer Confidence and Growth reports and then upon its release today, the Market go completely flat. Aside from an asteroid hitting Manhattan, I don't see much changing over the next year. Control of perception is all. Good luck, Riverboaters. Buddha

 

Ag?s Nightmare:

 

I have come to the conclusion this is a government sponsored mania. In their words and actions they have told the borkers of the world they have free reign on the capital markets and maximum recklessness is encouraged. Will it work? So far it is.

 

Right now the use of moral hazard has never been more successful and more powerful than at any time in Greenspew?s past.

 

These Fed heads "want" a mania. They want DOW 20000. They want Nasdaq 10000. There will be no raising of rates when it gets out of control, and as a matter of fact, I think rates will head to zero to keep it going if they have to do it.

 

The markets may never be the same because of the complexity they have wrought on it to save it. There are too many balls in the air as I said before and they can't hit the ground. Not one of them, or the experiment ends.

 

That said, I have no idea how bond yields are where they are at with an 8 % GDP, thus I feel the market is being controlled by those who have a different plan in mind, that is to repeal every economic law and cycle ever studied or applied. This has gone beyond cut taxes and spend. It's too big, too many bubbles fomenting to let any of them fail.

 

Only chance we have is if we stall here but the news or "lies" support the bulls case whether they are truth or fiction. The investment crooks on Wall Street are in a dangerous period where bonuses and bullhorning will be rampant.

 

I got bullhorned out of CAT today with an unexpected but brilliantly timed ?Bear Sheet in the Woods? upgrade. Everyone who is short will have to confront that every day if they take their stuff home until something turns sentiment. It's an assault by the borkers to create a mania as big or bigger then the first one. Look at XRX. First, they warn, then some house upgrades them. There is nothing that matters anymore but higher prices. It's the central core and focus of every government official.

 

Plunger:

 

Before Elliot Spitzer spends any more time investigating the mutual fund disasters, he really should put all of his efforts into investigating the inner workings of the SEC. It seems very obvious to me at this point that the Feds had some big time stuff on the boys at Morgan, Goldman, Citi, Merrill, etc. following the bubble bursting, and essentially told them they were going to have to play ball with Big Al to keep their asses out of the joint. The SEC is no more in charge of "enforcement" than was Grasso. Just the opposite. They are more the enablers of the scheme to prevent the total collapse of the pension system in the United States...a disaster that was essentially caused by the big boys, and they are now tasked to help fix.

 

In concert with Grasso and the big banks and brokerage houses, it would appear that the general agreement among all criminals and the SEC was to ensure that the trading programs were written in such a way to provide every human in the loop with plausible denial. They just let the computers tip each other off when it's time for the collusion to begin...and the buy-at-market orders flood the tape from every corner, right on cue. The appearance of bullishness is masterfully manipulated, and the financial media, whose livelihoods are dependent upon the success of the perpetrators schemes, happily report that a New Bull has arrived. Their only mission is to recruit more innocent bystanders - sucking them into the pyramid scheme. Everybody's bonus depends on it...EVERYBODY!

 

The SEC isn't acting as an enforcement entity because it is not actually supposed to do any enforcement. Its sole task is to ensure the status quo, and to keep the white hot spotlight of the truth from ever shining inside the Financial Matrix. Just like FRE and FNM...it all just too complex for the great unwashed to comprehend. Look the other way...for your own good.

 

Actually, that's all probably true. If the markets were simply allowed to implode as the charts would have suggested, we would already have more joblessness, more homelessness, and a full blown pension melt down.

 

So I guess the point here is to understand that the crash we are suspecting may occur, has probably already occurred. The lies that are being told to keep the public from the truth, are being told in an effort to save our economic system. Truth be told, if the SEC were to actually pursue and convict every banker and broker who broke securities law during the tech boom, there wouldn't be enough jails to hold them all.

 

Odds are both Kudlow and Cramer had done enough bad stuff in their pasts that The Matrix offered them a plea...either do hard time or be our mouthpieces on CNBS...all bullish all the time. When we tell you to crush gold, you tell the viewers to short gold. All very simple really.

 

Everybody cheated, everybody got way too greedy and they left the cupboards so bare that the only solution was to orchestrate a soft landing, using all of the same criminals that did the original crime.

 

The truth of it all lies within the walls of the SEC, most assuredly. How convenient that they remain underfunded - and therefore seemingly unable to effectively do their supposed jobs (plausible denial). The last thing The Matrix wants to see is a bull dog like Spitzer working inside the SEC to uncover all of the criminality...all the way to the top.

 

Yesterday the Nikkei shot through 10,000 and rolled over to close below it. Today the US markets nearly had a heart attack at the end of the day. Don't trust this game to continue to work for much longer...it's all getting way to obvious.

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So, let me get this straight- because the Matrix is succeeding and the stock market is going up NOW, it will go up in 2004. By that logic, exactly when is it supposed to go down? I mean, since it'll be going up in 2004, that means it'll also go up in 2005, right? etc. etc.

 

Now, don't get me wrong- it's obviously a very discouraging time to be a bear, and NO one knows when this nonsense will end, since nothing this insane has ever been tried before. But if history's any indication (and I've been led to believe that history DOES mean something to bears), the best time to attack (ie. short sell) is when you least WANT to do it. Buying worthless stocks AFTER they've been pumped up is a terrific way to lose even more money. Now, is there a chance that they'll go up 10% over the next 6 months? Maybe. But at these level, there's probably a better chance that they'll lose twice as much as that, at LEAST. The last time I remember bears being so discouraged was the end of 2001, and we all know what happened next. If you believe that Alan Greenspan will triumph over the most fundamental laws of economics, you mine as well just call yourself a bull and get it over with....

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Hey Guys,

 

Great commentary Mark.

The bottom line for me is that I can't hope to succeed in trading against the forces at work here. Having said that I am viewing the current levels for the S&P as a possible inflection point from which an intermediate term trader just might get a chance to make a bit of money on the short side. Next week should tell the tale.

By the way I saw no reason to respond to the posts yesterday, particularly HADJINS,

which basically said my commentary was designed to "stick it in Stoolies eyes" and I was a trading wannabe.

I presently have $509,411 in the market and $147,000 in a MMF that I use to go long/short via RYDEX at appropriate junctures. I have often said I am not a trader/gambler, and I have to say that if being a trader means losing money then yes I will remain a wannabe.

As to sticking it in Stoolies eyes with my "its not time yet" refrain I thought we were here to share our viewpoint and help each other make money, not lose it. Hadjin I apologize if you, for some reason. misinterpret what I am saying.

 

Be well and Happy Thanksgiving

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one tiny,weeny little 25bp interest rate rise has the potential to burst the Real estate bubble here in OZ which just goes to show how fragile the whole house of cards is.

I will post regular updates regarding the collapse of the FIRST Real estate "financial murderers"( thanks Beardrech)empire.

 

None of this is sustainable,the valuations are just ludicrous,people are borrowing huge amounts of money based on wildly inflated Real estate valuations to buy more wildly inflated real estate...its gunna be so ugly.

 

 

 

In the guru's wake, a get-poor-quick scheme

By Lisa Pryor and Jeni Porter

November 27, 2003

 

 

 

 

 

Sydney's nervous property investors hardly need more bad news, but here it is: Henry Kaye.

 

The get-rich-quick guru, who has fallen on hard times, must find $8.64 million in the next 17 days to refinance his major Sydney development, a 104-unit project under the flight path at Marrickville that stalled earlier this year.

 

Housing market observers say the demise of Mr Kaye's empire could contribute to the already rough ride expected for property investors who have bought off the plan in areas such as Sydney's southern CBD and Melbourne's Docklands.

 

Mr Kaye has extensive property interests besides his flagship company, National Investment Institute, which collapsed into receivership and administration on Monday. While most of his property projects are in Melbourne, Mr Kaye has told the Herald previously that he had six development sites in Sydney, including one at Burwood and the main one at Marrickville.

 

As many as 100,000 people took part in National Investment Institute seminars, which encouraged investors mainly to buy units off the plan and try to onsell them before completion.

 

Mr Kaye was the sole director of Marrickville Holdings Pty Ltd, which bought the old warehouse in the peak of the property boom for $13.675 million. This was 2.6 times the $5.17 million it had fetched in July 1999, before rezoning. It was later found to have concrete cancer.

 

No work has started on the four-storey shell, even though a development application was approved by Marrickville Council a year ago.

 

There is talk that Mr Kaye has already tried to sell the site. He personally guaranteed the $8.64 million mortgage and the National Investment Institute is also a guarantor. According to loan documents, the mortgage was taken out last December and is up for refinancing on December 13.

 

John Edwards, the director of housing researcher Residex, said: "There are definitely people who are going to get burnt over the next 12 months who have bought off the plan, but I think that it's not a large percentage of the market."

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