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Great posts above. Plunger..hats off, each post gets better, man. You hooked me with that post about recruiting chicks on campus for Playboy spreads. My fantasy job in the 70's.

 

This market has the aroma of end-game all over it. The end-game secret, as in chess and war and team sports, is to let the other guy lose. The losers here will be the bagholders who buy at the top. This is the person that shorts will make the easiest money off of. The secret behind the secret is NOT to think that this loser-to-be is less intelligent than you are. Every "obvious" top I see turns out to be a ruse. Still mostly in cash, holding my wallet. Waiting.

 

As alluded to above, there is more than market end-game going on here. The social and political milleux is parabolic as well.

 

When this all reverts to the mean, this will get violent in all aspects. There will be Jack Ruby's on every corner of Wall Street waiting to take out the guys leaving in handcuffs.

 

On another note, how on earth did Ridge's Gestapo let this chick get access to missile technology?Missile Momma

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and still more horror stories emerge....now lets play "Where did the money go????????"

 

All over the mainstream press today here in OZ,betcha lots of nervous people within the real estate GAME...

 

Get-rich hopefuls being hounded to pay thousands more

By James Button, John Garnaut and Martin Boulton

November 27, 2003

 

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Victims ... Donald and Evangelina Omond have lost thousands of dollars. Photo: Craig Sillitoe

 

 

Maria Clegg of Redfern pulled out of Henry Kaye's investment course after the first weekend because she didn't believe the get-rich-quick tale he was spruiking.

 

But instead of getting her money back, as promised, she has been hounded by Mr Kaye's finance firm for nine months for the full $16,000 cost of the so-called seminar.

 

Ms Clegg yesterday applied to the Consumer, Traders and Tenancy Tribunal to try to get back the $1200 she had paid.

 

But her chances of getting anything are slim. According to Andrew McLellan, the receiver to Mr Kaye's failed flagship company, National Investment Institute, it is unlikely creditors owed up to $10 million will get anything.

 

"I think there are going to be a lot of unhappy people," said Mr McLellan of PPB. "There are no assets that are sufficient to enable a return to any creditor."

 

He has asked Mr Kaye's solicitors to explain within two days where $28 million owed by one Kaye company to National Investment Institute had gone.

 

But Mr McLellan said the $28 million and a $15 million loan book owned by National Investment Institute were looking "increasingly shaky". And it could be two years before any of the $28 million lent to Mr Kaye's property investment company could be recovered.

 

Mr McLellan was appointed receiver on Monday.

 

Melbourne couple Donald and Evangelina Omond are almost $20,000 in debt after signing up for one of Mr Kaye's seminars. "We saw one of Mr Kaye's advertisement that said we could become millionaires," Mr Omond said. Despite trying to have their initial costs returned shortly after being signed up, the Omonds now fear losing their home in the spiralling debt and mountain of paperwork that has engulfed them.

 

Mr Omond was diagnosed with a rare form of leukaemia two years ago. After returning home from a stay in hospital earlier this month, he received notification to appear in court for defaulting on loan payments arranged by National Investment Institute.

 

The couple are among 900 creditors whose claims for refunds were being reviewed by an independent mediator, appointed following legal action by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

 

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NY Times starts writing about gold now

 

Gold does not have to break $400 an ounce to prove that it is in a bull market. That has been clear for some time, as the price has surged 52 percent since gold hit bottom in April of 2001.

 

But $400 has to be breeched, and maintained, to prove that the rally, which many American investors have probably missed, still has legs. And $450 an ounce has to appear to be within reach to offer a nice profit potential to investors who, unfortunately for them, usually don't pay attention to gold until its price is already going up.

 

Even Ian C. MacDonald, manager of precious metals at the New York branch of Commerzbank and a gold bear for 15 years, said, "The scary thing is we don't know how high this price can go."

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I still reiterate........that a break below 90 in dollar

is going to set off a quick trip south to 1030 on sNp............

 

 

whether cycles are in place after that to set up intermediate

downturn..........remains to be seen.

 

I believe it will and 1003 be next target.........

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The following is a paraphrase of a Gas Daily article today.

 

Between 5/99 and 10/01 Ken Lay borrowed significant amounts of money from Enron without the boards awareness. Lay repeatedly borrowed the full amount of his $4 million credit line and repaid the loans with Enron shares rather than cash. $94 million in total.

 

First, I'm sure all of us would like to know why this SOB in not in the slam.

Second, I'd like someone with more knowledge of securities law than I have to tell me if Lay had to tell the SEC what he was doing, if not his board. This scam obviously does not comply with the spirit of the insider trading rules, but I wonder if we in the US have sunk so far in our standards of corporate governance that it complies with the "letter of the law"?

Let us give thanks that some "Ruby" has not taken this scumbag out yet - there's still hope he'll do time and his sorry ass will be repeatedly assaulted 94 million times. B)

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agreed stutz! 95 million times maybe... :lol:

 

 

and this one had me shaking my head in disgust...

 

By Bill Rigby

NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged higher on Wednesday in slow trade before the Thanksgiving holiday as investors calmly welcomed a range of positive economic data pointing to a recovering economy.

 

 

Calmly ? Calmly ??? This morning ??

 

gaackkk... :P

 

 

PM's; at the very end of the late-day profit-taking, I saw candles on MDG and KGC turn green in the last minute. :D

 

Bodes well for next week...or even Friday maybe...

 

Brisbane; is gold-trading open in Sydney right now? I'm not seeing any activity...

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The following is a paraphrase of a Gas Daily article today.

 

Between 5/99 and 10/01 Ken Lay borrowed significant amounts of money from Enron without the boards awareness. Lay repeatedly borrowed the full amount of his $4 million credit line and repaid the loans with Enron shares rather than cash. $94 million in total.

 

First, I'm sure all of us would like to know why this SOB in not in the slam.

Second, I'd like someone with more knowledge of securities law than I have to tell me if Lay had to tell the SEC what he was doing, if not his board. This scam obviously does not comply with the spirit of the insider trading rules, but I wonder if we in the US have sunk so far in our standards of corporate governance that it complies with the "letter of the law"?

Let us give thanks that some "Ruby" has not taken this scumbag out yet - there's still hope he'll do time and his sorry ass will be repeatedly assaulted 94 million times. B)

This guy was doing exactly the same thing, but is now ordered to pay back money even though his board (dominated by his friends) agreed.

 

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) -- Former HealthSouth Corp. chief executive Richard Scrushy has been ordered to repay the company in cash for a $25 million loan he used to buy HealthSouth shares.

 

Scrushy borrowed the money in May 1999, paying $5.78 a share for 4.4 million shares. In July 2002, HealthSouth authorized him to repay the debt with company stock.

 

The price of those shares was artificially inflated by misleading financial statements issued under Scrushy's management and the former CEO was responsible for the accuracy of those statements, Leo Strine, vice chancellor of the Delaware Chancery Court, said in issuing the order Monday.

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So, let me get this straight- because the Matrix is succeeding and the stock market is going up NOW, it will go up in 2004.  By that logic, exactly when is it supposed to go down?  I mean, since it'll be going up in 2004, that means it'll also go up in 2005, right? etc. etc.

 

Now, don't get me wrong- it's obviously a very discouraging time to be a bear, and NO one knows when this nonsense will end, since nothing this insane has ever been tried before.  But if history's any indication (and I've been led to believe that history DOES mean something to bears), the best time to attack (ie. short sell) is when you least WANT to do it.  Buying worthless stocks AFTER they've been pumped up is a terrific way to lose even more money.  Now, is there a chance that they'll go up 10% over the next 6 months?  Maybe.  But at these level, there's probably a better chance that they'll lose twice as much as that, at LEAST.  The last time I remember bears being so discouraged was the end of 2001, and we all know what happened next.  If you believe that Alan Greenspan will triumph over the most fundamental laws of economics, you mine as well just call yourself a bull and get it over with....

What 'laws of economics'? Take it from an ex-Silly Valley lawyer - there are NONE. Several 'fundamental' theories? Sure. But, I prefer to trade sentiment and market psychology even though I may conclude that it is fundamentally misplaced and, at times, artificially driven.

 

Frankly, I don't buy the economic 'recovery' in particular as it relates to corporate spending. But, outside of the few people I advise NOT to buy and hold (and possibly even to them), my views mean squat. There are a plethora of reasons the market went down last year and for the 1st Q of this year. They weren't all based on economic theory or fundamentals. More a timing thing...first, had to engage in an election-wining war. And if that failed (and it appears that it has although I would not discount the July 1, 2004 'withdrawal date'), a well-timed economic recovery must be manufactured, sold and sustained THRU the election cycle and one that would reflect tangibly in the accounts of the investor-class. As for Greenspan, he's simply a narrowly-focused pawn concerned more about his legacy and less about wider GAME to retain and expand power. I think another 10% is very likely - it may even be hit this year.

 

As for '04, a commony-held scenario amongst traders I chat with (including PD), suggests more of the same - at least until mid-Summer (even then I'll probably buy the dip). Post election looks like an opportunity to short a market considerably higher. 05 - who knows? - but the fundamental theories will certainly play a bigger role for/against whichever political party wins the power struggle. Without a real recovery with spending and real top-line growth - the bear market rally finally ends.

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Many mutual fund firms that got caught with their hands in cookie jar are outside of New York. Spitzer does not have to worry too much of losing jobs when he goes after them. One of reason he did not file any criminal charge against Wall Street firms in their conflict of interest case is probably that they essentially all locate inside New York.

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Brisbane, thanks for the reports on the bubble pop in Oz. I never heard the word spruiking before, but the meaning is evident. I look forward to following this story because there are so many parallels here. I just don't get it I guess, I'm conservative and have paid dearly for it. I know people who leveraged up and just keep reaping huge rewards. They regard me as a total idiot, and frankly I'm wondering.

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I think you (Whoever you are) are being too critical of GTNWORSE...He strikes me as being more helpful than not...

 

Yes I like it the market already crashed decades ago...now fantasy is reigning supreme...But the zero interest rate barrier to immortality is here...

 

To continue the charade that has been running for 40 years but only officially unvailed in 1971, with the implementation of the floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system, which lead to a 9 year adjustment period where rates topped 20%...Interest rates must continue to keep dropping to support consumer debt inflation which is the sole fuel of the economic system...

 

One slight problem...zero can not be breached...Rates can not perpetually drop past zero to support debt creation volume and if they rise volume dries up also...

 

The real US economy is being vaporised at a rapid rate...Once rates hit rock bottom the economy will then speed towards rock bottom...

 

Human history when looked at economically is inflate to the maximum potential then collapse rebuild and inflate to the maximum potential...Over and over again like clockwork...

 

The just think positive inflation forever religion will collapse only when it is realized that the system is incapable of inflating debt forever...

 

It will be like a switch...And I figure all the debt invested in creating and perpetuating the international terror will pay huge dividends when the switch is flipped...

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NY Times starts writing about gold now

 

Gold does not have to break $400 an ounce to prove that it is in a bull market. That has been clear for some time, as the price has surged 52 percent since gold hit bottom in April of 2001.

 

But $400 has to be breeched, and maintained, to prove that the rally, which many American investors have probably missed, still has legs. And $450 an ounce has to appear to be within reach to offer a nice profit potential to investors who, unfortunately for them, usually don't pay attention to gold until its price is already going up.

 

Even Ian C. MacDonald, manager of precious metals at the New York branch of Commerzbank and a gold bear for 15 years, said, "The scary thing is we don't know how high this price can go."

The story goes on to comment about the upcoming exchanged traded fund for gold. Thanks to tax laws which make gold held outside of the US subject to a higher rate of tax, the ETF has a fundemental flaw (gold to be held in London). It may over come that anyway if the SEC or IRS makes a special ruling and treats the ETF like a stock - but I doubt that will happen.

 

Actually I am hoping the Gold Council or someone like Sinclair come up with a better idea by making gold real money again. Why can't there be a MMF for gold, for example, which gets back to the roots of banking and you just have an account quoted in - tada - gold (not dollars). This would have to pass the SEC and maybe the FDIC, and judging from the comments above, they aren't yet be trusted to allow US citizens stable and honest investments.

 

Dozer - good comments, along with many others.

 

Don't think the market has nearly the underlying strength that it is being credited with. Without the support of some foreign central banks, who are basically swallowing the entire $500 billion plus current account deficit of the US, the dollar would fall further, interest rates would rise, and indirectly stocks would lose their 'liquidity' (to overuse a word).

 

Watch the $ as HiHat says.

 

Welcome sarcastro.

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Regardless of where you are, and where the publication is, I'd appreciate it if you follow the guidelines for reposting copyrighted material. Either get the publisher's permission or post

 

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Whoever put that music on should be condemned to listen to it 24/7 for the rest of their life. I agree with Dozer the market is cracking ever so slowly all 3 indicies are sitting right on their inflection points and they had to fight like hell to hold it together today. The other night a Stoolie asked me if Shrub was going to back down on the steel tariffs and I said no! The guy is a zealot who thinks he is omnipotent. After sticking his thumb in China's eye with the textile thing-he has followed up with a swift kick to the groin. Feature story page 3 todays Financial Post- Headline-U.S. Slaps Duties on Chinese T.V.'s-sub headline-Surge in U.S. Protectionism worries anal cysts- Highlights-The U.S. Commerce Dept fresh from its drive to limit imports of cheap Bra's and Textiles slapped duties on imports of 4 brands of Chinese T.V.'s ranging from 28 to 46% the duties affect more than $450 Million in goods. anal cysts are growing increasingly uneasy as a surge in U.S. protectionism could backfire on the U.S. economy and goes on to quote David Rosenberg Chief North American Economist for Merrill Lynch "Consumers are not the only casualties as this trade dispute intensifies -what is bigger potatoes is the negative sentiment on investor psychology and its effect on the fair value multiple on the equity markets." the article points out there are only 4,000 people involved in the T.V. manufacturing biz in the U.S. and although the original complaint was against China and Malaysia only China was punished. Then THIS-"Bra's, textiles and T.V.'s may only be the tip of the iceberg-Furniture makers this month asked George W. Bush to levy tariffs of as much as 440% on $ 1 Billion a year of Bedroom suites from China. U.S. Steel producers and wire hanger makers are also lobbying the Government to block imports from China"-Then THIS- "China yesterday said it was gravely concerned over the TV decision and announced it would raise duties on some U.S. goods. Chinese Soybean, Cotton and and Wheat buying teams that were to have gone to the U.S. ahead of a trip by Premier Wen Jiabao next month also cancelled their visits." So here we go-Smoot and Hawley are back-this ain't about trade-Shrub wants the Yuan to go off the peg but pressure has never worked with the Chinese and IMHO the shit has only begun to hit the fan-Consumers up to their ass in debt will pay more, retail sales will drop and the markets will crater-WTF! Trade Safe!

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