cwd Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 I would have had a great day today except for the boner in AMD today.Some dumb house upgraded AMD on the potential for a 1% gain in marketshare. Well, if you're selling chips at a loss you can do stuff like that. Intel's price cuts this past spring and early in Q3 should have killed AMD's ASPs. Another house called the house that upgraded AMD dumb. Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. 587051[/snapback] That gives us stoolies a chance to get short at a better price. Thanks. How does a short AMD, long INTC sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 I would have had a great day today except for the boner in AMD today.Some dumb house upgraded AMD on the potential for a 1% gain in marketshare. Well, if you're selling chips at a loss you can do stuff like that. Intel's price cuts this past spring and early in Q3 should have killed AMD's ASPs. Another house called the house that upgraded AMD dumb. Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. 587051[/snapback] AMD looks like a nice scalp trade here, especially if shorts begin to cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 They bought china again today. CBA for example breaks a supply linehttp://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/CBA_06_21_21_06_1182474400.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 No mention that bonds got whacked today?...... I guess nobody noticed cause the market was up today....Another 10 basis points on the yield will make things interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 All I can say is that I was pounding the table last July about put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios, potentially pointing to a Weimar Run. I was dissed, heaped with bales of scorn and derision, and told that those indicators didn't work anymore, and to please quit beating a dead horse. Meanwhile, K-Wave was here chain posting his crash tunnels, fractals, posting 45 times a day about how the bottom was going to fall out, and he was adored and worshiped like a rock star. 587049[/snapback] You got it it right but not for those reasons. You read the chart patterns correctly. That's why. The other stuff was coincidence. Extreme low readings in the Rydex Ratio indicators were not related to market sentiment. They were due to the introduction of far superior, far more liquid competing instruments. God knows what the put call ratios mean, since they continue to trend higher and are subject to a myriad of ways of parsing the data. But a prima facie case can be made for the fact that puts are cheap and that the growth in put volume is related not to directional bets, but hedging. So don't confuse your skill at chart pattern recognition with things that don't have anything to do with market direction, but happen to coincide with your view of things. If, as your post suggests, your argument is that K Wave got more respect than you liked because he didn't post when the market was strong, you were right. You won that one. So let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmoy Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 I would have had a great day today except for the boner in AMD today.Some dumb house upgraded AMD on the potential for a 1% gain in marketshare. Well, if you're selling chips at a loss you can do stuff like that. Intel's price cuts this past spring and early in Q3 should have killed AMD's ASPs. Another house called the house that upgraded AMD dumb. Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. 587051[/snapback] That gives us stoolies a chance to get short at a better price. Thanks. How does a short AMD, long INTC sound? 587054[/snapback] INTC made a new closing high and I have a lot of it in my LT port so that did very well today. The AMD ramps generally fizzle out from one to three days. They will be reporting "earnings" soon I think though I don't have the exact date handy. I think that concensus "earnings" are around an 86 cents loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 There is a possibility that after tomorrow, I will have very limited access to this message board or any other website during working hours. On Friday, our bank will be merging with Citizens Business Bank of Ontario, CA. I will walk into the office on Monday morning, and have a brand new networked computer at my desk, but rumor has it that access to the internet will be restricted. There is no wireless router or internet connection outside of the network available, so I won't even be able to access the Internet from my notebook. The bank is a $6 billion dollar company started by a bunch of dairy farmers. Very strict and conservative loan portfolio, but they were too conservative and bought a huge amount of fixed income securities, which they now have huge, unrealized losses given the big move in interest rates. As you can see, the stock has been a total dog. Citizen's Business Bank Wish me luck. 587040[/snapback] Best wishes, maybe you can morph into a full time trader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 DJ Blackstone Group IPO Prices At $31; Top End Of Range >BX ? NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Private-equity firm Blackstone Group's initial public offering priced at $31 a share.? The IPO price, which was at the top end of the expected range of of $29 to $31 and set by lead underwriters Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup ?, values Blackstone at about $33.6 billion. ? Blackstone raised $4.13 billion after 133.33 million common units were sold into the offering, making it one of the biggest IPOs on Wall Street. ? The stock is expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange, under the symbol (BX) on Friday. 587028[/snapback] A snippet from one of the Agora e-mails. Even more remarkable, here are the same schleps whom Blackstone commonly outsmarts lining up to be suckered again. Today's FT tells us that the IPO is already six times oversubscribed, despite Senate action that threatens to double the firm's tax bill beginning in 2012. The poor boobs think they are going to put one over on Blackstone. For isn't that the real nature of this transaction? The world's most successful insiders are on one side of the table; the world's most na?ve public market investors are on the other. Who's going to get the better end of the bargain? 587035[/snapback] Well, that's true BUT... I was just thinking about this the other day. You could have said the same thing about GS in 1999, but you would have more than tripled your money in 8 years if you bought the IPO, and that's not too bad. The insiders did better of course, because they got to have their cake and eat it too, but the ignorant boobs who bought and held didn't do too bad in the long run. Of course you would have done a lot better if you had waited for the bottom in 02 and 03, not because the price was any better, but because your holding period would have been so much shorter. The other point is that GS sold about a year before the end of that cycle. So if past history is any guide, the Blackstone sale won't mark the top, but is probably a precursor. These guys want to do the deal when there's still plenty of liquidity around. They know well that the longer they wait, the more they are playing with fire. 587048[/snapback] The real smart guys leave before the party is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Boberson Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 Meanwhile, in another sign of the impending apocalypse, Paris Hilton will make close to $40,000 per day of incarceration: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/22/arts/tel...22paris.html?hp What do I have to do to git me some of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeWhee Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 Meanwhile, in another sign of the impending apocalypse, Paris Hilton will make close to $40,000 per day of incarceration: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/22/arts/tel...22paris.html?hp What do I have to do to git me some of that? 587070[/snapback] She still can't top that Semel crook who was just replaced as CEO of Yahoo!. He made almost $250,000 a day for the past six years. Imagine how much he would have made if the company actually did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 CVBF..... ....At $9.25 or so for a potential 5-year cycle bottom. Lather me up all booly booly then!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 I would have had a great day today except for the boner in AMD today.Some dumb house upgraded AMD on the potential for a 1% gain in marketshare. Well, if you're selling chips at a loss you can do stuff like that. Intel's price cuts this past spring and early in Q3 should have killed AMD's ASPs. Another house called the house that upgraded AMD dumb. Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. 587051[/snapback] That gives us stoolies a chance to get short at a better price. Thanks. How does a short AMD, long INTC sound? 587054[/snapback] INTC made a new closing high and I have a lot of it in my LT port so that did very well today. The AMD ramps generally fizzle out from one to three days. They will be reporting "earnings" soon I think though I don't have the exact date handy. I think that concensus "earnings" are around an 86 cents loss. 587059[/snapback] I suppose Intel needs AMD to keep anti monopoly guys at bay Big Chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted June 22, 2007 Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 All I can say is that I was pounding the table last July about put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios, potentially pointing to a Weimar Run. I was dissed, heaped with bales of scorn and derision, and told that those indicators didn't work anymore, and to please quit beating a dead horse. ? ? ? Meanwhile, K-Wave was here chain posting his crash tunnels, fractals, posting 45 times a day about how the bottom was going to fall out, and he was adored and worshiped like a rock star. 587049[/snapback] You got it it right but not for those reasons. You read the chart patterns correctly. That's why. The other stuff was coincidence. Extreme low readings in the Rydex Ratio indicators were not related to market sentiment. They were due to the introduction of far superior, far more liquid competing instruments. God knows what the put call ratios mean, since they continue to trend higher and are subject to a myriad of ways of parsing the data. But a prima facie case can be made for the fact that puts are cheap and that the growth in put volume is related not to directional bets, but hedging. So don't confuse your skill at chart pattern recognition with things that don't have anything to do with market direction, but happen to coincide with your view of things. If, as your post suggests, your argument is that K Wave got more respect than you liked because he didn't post when the market was strong, you were right. You won that one. So let it go. 587058[/snapback] If people were really bullish then why would they buy insurance unless they feel Doom is just around the corner? At least I wouldn?t waste my money even if it?s cheap because it will be a drag on my portfolio?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 Because that's what hedge funds do. It also provides them with added leverage in some strategies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2007 Of course there are bullish strategies where the put is an opening sale. That goes without saying. The point is that with all the possible option combinations it's impossible to tell whether it's a directional bet, and in what direction. Not to mention that there's always an opposite side to the trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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